Daily Times

The concept of Generations of Modern Warfare (GMW) was formally introduced in 1989 by US military scholars led by William Lind. Since then, five generations of warfare have been defined and further explained by international academia and military minds across the globe. Furthermore, continuous research on global security has led to identification of another new generation of warfare which is hybrid in nature. The academia believes that “Hybrid Warfare” has already registered its manifestation and is constantly evolving itself. The concept implies that both 5th Generation Warfare (5GW) and Hybrid Warfare require a different perspective than what we have applied so far on the other generations and forms of warfare. No commonly accepted definition exists for either 5GW or Hybrid Warfare. Some define 5GW as a decentralized form of warfare as it is characterized by blurring lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians, being a long term and complex warfare. On the other hand, Hybrid Warfare is a military strategy that blends conventional, irregular and cyber warfare and is product of new technologies like nanotechnology, coupled with an indirect political approach. Given the pace at which change in warfare is accelerating, it is logical to accept that 5GW has transformed itself to hybrid warfare.

These twin threats have multi-dimensional challenges and the desired security arrangements to counter them will require extra-ordinary solutions. Modern armies of the world will desperately need to evolve innovative strategies to confront both the 5GW and Hybrid Warfare. Since the very outset of human history, warfare has gone through constant evolution. 5GW resulted from the continuous shift of political and social loyalties to causes rather than nations. It will be marked by the increase power of smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. The term 5GW is still ambiguous in nature and is denoted to as unrestricted, or an open source warfare. However, this form is rapidly making its presence felt all around. The distinctive lines between war and peace have faded at an alarming speed. Space for classical state vs state, military to military confrontation is being captured by state vs non- state actors and criminal groups. In the recent past, the concepts of 5GW, hybrid threats and hybrid war have come under sharp focus amongst military and security experts, world-wide.

Modern armies of the world will desperately need to evolve innovative strategies to confront both the 5GW and Hybrid Warfare

Pakistan, since its inception, has been confronted with multifaceted challenges. However, in recent past, South Asian security environment has changed dramatically, with a few key developments dominating security agendas. Therefore, without ignoring the internal fissures and fault-lines, the nature of threat to our country from hostile countries warrants a critical examination of the situation by identifying the hybrid threat confronted by Pakistan with a view to devise a strategy that could enable the state to build resilience to these threats. The post-modern world is characterized by explosion of knowledge, information and rapid advancements in almost all facets of human life. Military art and science are no exception to this ever-growing transformation and expansion. The centuries old conventional jargons and doctrines in the domain of warfare are being replaced with new concepts and techniques. Non-Kinetic challenges to the states are more pronounced than Kinetic ones in today’s world. Whereas, the overall power potential of nations is still determined by conventional military yardsticks, it is the Non-Kinetics which is more seriously explored now-a-days by nations and societies to advance their interests. Any evaluation or analysis of wars and conflicts will be incomplete without a context to the prevailing situation at global and regional level.

It is crystal clear that the world is transiting from uni-polartiy to multi-polarity which is likely to ignite sub-conventional warfare and radiate consequential security challenges for Pakistan. CPEC, though a game changer, faces serious threats from external forces. There is a need to harness the CPEC and take requisite measures for its security. The country is slowly and gradually moving towards strengthening of institutions. However, this slow pace is not at par with the growing threats to internal and external security. It is a happy omen to witness that the myth of isolating Pakistan is fading away with increasing interests of various countries in joining CPEC and hosting of ECO meeting. Robust conventional and nuclear capability together with stable political and economic conditions have thwarted the enemy’s desire to attack Pakistan overtly. However, threat matrix of Pakistan is characterized by an amorphous nature which is manifested through a flexible inter and intra network, enabled by modern technologies having internal and external linkages in varying domains. We face many external threats, whereas, on internal front, we face a host of challengers with diverse objectives, ranging from political anarchy to separatist demands.

Pakistan is currently facing major threats both on external and internal fronts i.e. Non-State and State Actors. Warfare has never been uniform ever since the beginning of mankind. The ways and means of its conduct have been evolved through a trial and error process and will continue to do so. The explosion of social media and cyber space, effectiveness of anti-state propaganda, grievances of ethnic and religious minorities, sophisticated means of operations, de-centralized and loose command and control structure, poverty, lack of growth opportunities in life, absence of good educational facilities, ignorance about the religion, hate speech, intolerance towards others’ viewpoints are some of the factors that provide breeding ground for 5th Generation and Hybrid warfare. This form of warfare is a combination of conventional and un-conventional warfare. Defining challenges facing Pakistan related to its national authority, national interests and national will by 5GW are relatively easy, more difficult is to find remedies to these dilemmas. Some of the most vivid manifestations in the context of Pakistan could be the use of media to propagate against the State and its institutions, cyberattacks, fake news, social media, money laundering, hacking of bank accounts, secessionist movements, sectarian strife, and creating unrest by raising popular religious slogans.

Presence of these multiple threats and vulnerabilities provide sufficient reasons for triggering hybrid war against Pakistan. Academia and think tanks, within the country and without, have started to discuss these threats in various domains. Hence, the process of realization of hybrid threats to Pakistan has already begun and needs to be continued. In today’s media-dominated world, it is imperative to ensure that effects of any physical engagement are propagated adequately. Similarly, a comprehensive counter strategy needs to be put in place. A strong economic infrastructure should ensure sustained supply of food and energy, as both will ensure a sound economy as a consequence. Maximum efforts in information domain must be pressed into practice as the larger part of hybrid wars is fought through packaged ideas, processed information and manipulated propaganda. Thus, time is already ripe for promotion of freedom of expression and investment in people as an urgent course of action for neutralizing the hybrid war tactics used against Pakistan. Development of quality human resource is also of immense value. Furthermore, ensuring quality education, health and basic amenities, jobs, recreational facilities and essential provisions will pave the way for an improvement in Psycho-social environment of the country.

In the ultimate analysis, time has come to realize that hybrid threats against Pakistan are a new reality and require a comprehensive counter-strategy backed by concrete actions. Unless this becomes a reality, developing countries like Pakistan will continue to struggle for peace, progress and prosperity.

The writer is a civil servant by profession, a writer by choice and a motivational speaker by passion!