Daily Times

After years of struggle and distress, 29, February 2020 was the day when there emerged a ray of hope to the persisting conflict in Afghanistan. At this point, an agreement was reached between the United States and Taliban negotiators in Doha, which led to the creation of a framework, that in future, would provide a mean for the withdrawal of USA troops from Afghanistan. The initial number of these troops as agreed in the peace-deal were about 13,000 to 8,600 which were to be withdrawn within 135 days, with the rest to be removed completely in next 14 months. In addition to this, the deal led to an agreement vis-à-vis prisoner exchange between the Taliban and the Afghan government, which definitely is going to be a game-changer in the way towards peaceful resolution.

The two sides have reached a settlement in which they have concurred mutually on not allowing the use of Afghanistan’s land against the USA, with the United States on other side demonstrating support for removing of the sanctions imposed. However, despite this all, the fate of peaceful resolution is unclear as there are still numerous obstacles on the way, which could turn the tables and could lead to more severe consequences, if not dealt properly.

The very first among all is the Intra-Afghan negotiations. After the departure of US, the next major challenge would be to deal with the internal situation and to see how the Taliban and the Afghan government take on the situation further. As part of the agreement, the talks were supposed to be held on March 10, but we can see that no progress has been achieved so far, as the two sides have conditioned it with the prisoner’s exchange. So until and unless the exchange would be done, the prospects of a peaceful settlement between the two sides are unlikely.

Now, looking into the prisoners exchange – according to the agreement, the Taliban have to release some 1000 prisoners, whereas, the government has to release around 5000. The government, in the beginning, though refused to do the required, but later, agreed on the release of 1,500 with subject to the condition that they will not go back to fighting by signing an agreement, which the Taliban denied. So, no development in this area has been achieved, putting the chances of stability at stake. The recent election in Afghanistan is yet another depiction of the internal political instability as Abdullah Abdullah, political opponent of Ashraf Ghani, denied the results by declaring himself the winner.

Moreover, the security standing of Afghanistan is still questionable. Without a doubt, the US withdrawal will put the security forces of Afghanistan in hot waters, as they are not trained enough to deal with any worst situation that comes ahead.  Adding to this are the ongoing attacks, making the situation even more tense, as the conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan Government is still there. Recently on March 20, the Taliban attacked a police and army joint base in Zabul province that killed 24 security forces, including soldiers and police officers. In response to this, on March-22, the Afghan government carried out an airstrike in Kunduz province in which, 9 civilian and 2 Taliban’s lost their lives. Alongside, Covid-19 has brought a lot of consequences and has also impeded the intra-afghan talks making the situation more problematic and peace attainment, a delusion.

Looking into the regional implications of the US-Taliban peace agreement, we can surely say that if the deal is well accomplished and implemented, then it will open the door for future stability in Afghanistan and the region as a whole. The most amiable upshot of it will be for Pakistan, as the country has been throughout engaged in efforts for a peaceful resolution to Afghan conflict. Since the security of Pakistan is linked to that of Afghanistan, the deal will help in containing all the insurgencies that have been backed and financed by India.

Yet at the same time, the deal could be unwelcomed by India as it would put a halt to its incendiary agendas against Pakistan.

For China, a stable Afghanistan will provide a roadway to geostrategically and economically significant Central Asian Republics. Along with this, China could bring Afghanistan into the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the idea was presented forward in a video confidence by Wang Yi, Chinese foreign minister, on 27, July. Lastly, the Afghan people who have faced years of wars, would finally be able to breathe in open air, but only if the deal turned out well for Afghanistan.

Conclusively, though there are obstacles on the way to peace for Afghanistan, yet collective, cooperative and timely efforts for true implementation of the agreement and future peaceful cooperation between the internal factions will decide the fate of Afghanistan. Without this, the attainment of peace would be a delusion. Ending with Jim Rohn’s, words: “It’s important to learn from your mistakes, but it is more important to learn from others’ mistakes, because it will ultimately accelerate your own success.”