Daily Times

Should Pakistani investors an authorities alike fear for the country’s equity market? After becoming the best performing bourse in Asia for a second time and number-four all over the world, has the time really come for our market to take a dive and spook all the foreign investors that were rushing to it after the good news? Going by the last few days it seems that as markets all over the world are tumbling Pakistan’s might not be an exception any longer. The main reason for the international decline is the rising number of coronavirus cases and indeed a confirmed second wave of the virus in much of North America and the European continent.

Another very important reason is that central banks seem to have run out of ammunition when it comes to yet more stimuli to keep markets properly lubricated. So far the world has been treated to an epic, historic decoupling between capital markets and the real global economy because central bankers have not let the markets worry ever since the beginning of the pandemic and through the lockdowns. But now, after cutting interest rates as much as they could and throwing as much money into the markets as possible, they simply have nothing more to offer and investors have come to understand that there might not be a silver bullet down the road.

In the United States the problem is made worse by the deadlock between the Democrats and Republicans over another possible relief package that would soothe the markets to an extent and also the fact that most investors have begun pricing in election risk and volatility. These things have rattled markets across the world and Pakistan seems no exception for the time being. So far the country has been luckier than most others in terms of controlling the spread of the coronavirus and this success has been greatly aided by a galloping stock market that kept investors happy and the country looking good. Hopefully the downtrend of the past week was just a correction in an otherwise strong uptrend that began months ago and soon everybody would get back to their earning ways. But if the market has indeed run out of gas, then there is much more trauma down the road. *