Daily Times

Clearly, yet with no surprise, theunfolding events in Washington and Beijing indicate the glaring spectre of a global passing of the torch from the United States to China. While China continues to assert itself both economically and militarily; the United States is intriguingly tasked with maintaining a balance of power in the West hemisphere, East Asia and safeguarding its global dominance, per se. Addressing the European ambassadors’ conference in Germany recently, EU High Representative and Vice President Joseph Borrel said: ” …if the 21st century turns out to be an Asian century, as the 20th was an American one, the pandemic may well be remembered as the turning point of this process…” Obviously, the US role of global leadership is under fire.

In today’s international affairs, the psychological balance of power – the world’s sense of who is rising and who is falling – often morphs far more rapidly than expected via a physical balance of power. The virtual signs and symptoms of decline in US global power image are well-evident in the perspective that argues that the growing regional resistance to US policies and interests isreshaping a big space for China to replace the US power. This emerging paradigm against the US is becoming strong and uniform in resisting expected US unilateral actions, especially regarding political issues and values such as human rights and democracy, a bigger threat to the national sovereignty of regional states. Notably, a greater friction is marked while an expected downturn in the US economy; anticipated difficulties in US-China relations; and greater strategic debate between the United States and Japanese and South Korean allies over military bases; and remaking of other alliances taking place in Eurasia, Mideast and South Asia. And above all, the COVI-19 has upped the ante.

Clearly seen today, America is characterizing a visionary lacking, experiencing a paucity of clear-minded presidential advisers; this at a time when its reputation as a peace-loving, the magnanimous nation has descended to an almost global perception miming as proxy of the Jewish nation-the chief offender of world peace. Ironically, the U.S. population is being brainwashed by its mass media into a mindset of politically correct appeasement of its rank enemies. Most importantly, its capability as the world’s policeman-a role that certain powers, such as the European Union, have gladly hidden behind while they seemed to have chased their own agenda for global domination-is absolutely eclipsing moment by moment.

Arguably, America is suffering from a functional or ‘usable power; While relative power as measured by its military arsenal vis-à-vis those of its rivals has already becomesteady, and yet importantly, the domestic political ability of US presidents to turn the country’s tremendous power led by wealth into the international arena is declining. America’s deficit of usable power did not begin with Donald Trump, but it has grown measurably on his watch as president. And needless to say, a new geopolitical and geo-economic landscape is being formed wherein it encompasses China’s new Silk Roads, the lengthening usage of the Arctic sea route between Asia and Europe, and the development of spaceports.

And more furthers, there is a reassessment of global supply chains, longstanding trade agreements and military alliances. Central to the new landscape is the shift of the United States away from the idea of the transatlantic alliance system and a commitment to liberal world order. In many dimensions, the Trump administration is taking the United States back to where it was following World War I-away from entangling alliances in Europe, a greater reliance on business, and clearer and narrower definition of national interests (led by creating jobs and keeping the country out of the war).

At the same time, China is moving to fill the role of global leadership as the United States steps back and Europe reassesses its role in the world. Meanwhile, Russia has made its return as a major power felt in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Caribbean (Venezuela). While President Donald Trump is usually seen as the major force in the creation of a more uncertain political and economic landscape, the forces propelling the global system down the road. And yet arguably, while America’s relative power as measured by its military arsenal vis-à-vis those of its rivals has held steady, its ‘usable power’ has declined. We attribute this decline in usable power to three domestic-level factors: the emergence of hyper-partisanship, the absence of a compelling strategic narrative, and the erosion of a social contract of inclusive growth.

With U.S.-China trade trending sharply downward reflecting a fragmentation of the global monetary order is a possibility for the future global order

“The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide,” IMF forecasters wrote in their global outlook, titled The Great Lockdown.”Protecting lives and allowing health care systems to cope have required isolation, lockdowns, and widespread closures to slow the spread of the virus. The health crisis is therefore having a severe impact on economic activity,” the IMF added.Until Americansrealise that a situation has come that they could take risks of contracting the coronavirus have fallen – either through widespread testing or a vaccine – many economists and business owners say there will be no rapid economic rebound.

Furthermore, America’s domestic unemployment rate is touching Depression-era levels, and unfortunately the current relief packages don’t yet amount to a level that many Western publics may need for years to come. Obviously, precautionary savings and muted consumption will govern household spending decisions, and business investment will sag. A long-drawn-out W shape seems to be the only economic scenario for the years ahead. With U.S.-China trade trending sharply downward reflecting a fragmentation of the global monetary order is a possibility for the future global order.

Some observers who analyse that the United States under the auspices of President Trump has substantially changed the U.S. role in the world (particularly critics of the Trump Administration) and also some who were critical of the Obama Administration-view the implications of that change as undesirable. They discern the change as an unnecessary retreat– from U.S. global leadership and a horrendous discarding of long-held U.S. values. Nonetheless, , the coming US administration after Trump may be facing the challenge of re-indoctrinating the American public about a foreign policy whereby the US provides global public goods in collaboration with others while using its soft power to attract their cooperation. Remember, the success of American primacy after 1945 depended on exercising power with as well as over others. Yet, this process will be intensifiedby the new transnational challenges of the twenty-first century. The future role of US global primacy is to be determined more by how Americans can astutely learn lessons from the rise and decline of other powers.Truly, this phenomenon of sundown on the American power seems to have been largely marked via a process by design rather than that it is going to happen by default.

The writer is an independent ‘IR’ researcher and international law analyst based in Pakistan