Daily Times

“An incomparably exciting moment”; “game-changer”; “deal of the century”; “historic”; “betrayal” – there is no shortage of labels for the recently announced UAE – Israeli deal! As far as caution goes, it has been thrown to the wind; i.e. this pact will fully normalise relationships between the two countries.

While there may be many reasons for this agreement, chief amongst them is this: national interest will always triumph over sentimental overtures! Consider.

In the Arabian Peninsula, the sands have been shifting slowly but surely over the last decade or so. Years ago, it could have been said that the Arab world is joined together – at-least for show – in their spat with Israel. Not even that anymore! Based on converging national interests, this recent event confirms the unwritten truth that Arabs probably see Iran as their number one enemy instead of Israel.

What is in it for UAE? Redemption! It has been getting a bad rap in the US since its role in the regional isolation of Qatar and the war in Yemen. This deal, hailed by Trump as the most positive story to come out of the Middle East for years, allows UAE to recoup some of its fallen grace in the eyes of the US. In turn, it will allow UAE access to previously off-limits U.S. armament. This could possibly include F-35 fighter planes and advanced drones. In this, UAE would be following in the footsteps of Egypt which could secure better US arms after its peace deal with Israel. Jordan – only the second country after Egypt to official recognise Israel – also got many inducements in lieu of normalising relationship with the Jewish state. The deal also opens up the door for UAE to collaborate with Israel on technology, healthcare, trade and education. In fact only recently APEX National Investment group of UAE has said that it has agreed to conduct research on Covid-19 with Tera Group in Israel. A contemporary issue of great importance no less!

For Israel, its longest serving national interest has been normalising ties with its Arab neighbours. This started when Egypt and Jordan officially recognised Israel and continues today with the endorsement from UAE. In this Israel is hoping for a domino’s effect where this one pact leads to a wave of normalisations with other Arab and also African countries. Rumours are ripe that Bahrain, Oman and Sudan could follow suit! Israel will also get to leverage UAE’s positions as the trade and tourism hub of the Middle East. Direct flights are scheduled to start between the two parties at the end of August 2020 with further engagement late in the year.

Unlike previous deals, this one provides Israel the fruits of peace without needing the Israeli government to surrender its grip over seized territory

In this quickly unfolding scenario, what about Palestine? And it’s chief national interest of honourable existence in a hostile environment? For the Palestinians, it doesn’t look good! Even the Egypt – Israeli accord of 1979 and Jordan – Israeli treaty of 1994 reflected the fundamental Arab principle of “land for peace”. That is, Israel can only have peace with its neighbours after it gives back Arab land it occupied in the June 1967 war. This principle was also keenly embodied in the Arab Peace Initiative of the Arab league in 2002. Since then, it has been the cornerstone of any Arab dealings with Israel. But now, for the first time, this core ideal has been jettisoned in favour of “peace for peace”! As expected, Palestinian leaders have outrightly rejected this deal and also UAE’s argument that this pact will act as a precursor to lasting peace and consequently a separate Palestinian state. The UAE move to bring out its clandestine engagement with Israel in the open is one thing, especially defined by its narrow self-interest of countering Iran. But to term it as an assistance to the Palestinian cause is absolute hypocrisy! And it has been termed a betrayal exactly because of this reason – that, unlike previous deals, this one provides Israel the fruits of peace without needing the Israeli government to surrender its grip over seized territory. It looks like that the Palestinian’s are slowly realising that their national interests don’t converge with those of their Arab allies! Dennis Ross, the former US Middle East peace envoy echoes the same, that this deal “should also signal to Palestinians that others are not going to wait for themto make peace with Israel”.

The world generally may pat itself on the back on a job well done! Whilethe bonhomie and trade between Egypt and Jordan and Israel never materialisedafter normalization, it’s expected to be different with the UAE. Mostly because it is a federation of seven emirates each vying to engage with Israel and that it was never involved in conflict with the Jewish state. Thus, absolving it from the baggage of the past! However, the simmering Palestinian anger is palpable and will seek an outlet at some point, making the same peace espoused by this agreement almost untenable!

The framers of the UAE – Israeli deal have called it the Abraham Accord. This is because Abraham is respected and revered as a man of peace and great wisdom by the three religions originating from this region – Islam, Christianity and Judaism. The authors of this agreement have thought that using the name of Abraham will ensure ratification and longevity of this arrangement, and that may still happen, but what they forget is that national interests trump all and nascent friendships tend to change with the winds!

The writer is Director Programmes for an international ICT organization based in the UK and writes on corporate strategy, socio-economic and geopolitical issues