Daily Times

On 17 August 2020, the Tehrek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) took into its fold its two splinter militant outfits, Jamat-ulAhrar (JuA) and Hizb-ulAhrar (HuA), in eastern Afghanistan. The splinter groups, which remained intractable and recusant, finally pledged allegiance to and emboldened the TTP.

Reportedly, the shared objective of the merger is to reticulate a terrorist network and restore militant activities against Pakistan. The prime target would be Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies. The reunification was on the cards for several months but it culminated a few days ago. It is also said that Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security and India’s Research and Analysis Wing midwifed the merger, the squalor ecumenical act.

Notwithstanding the role of any intelligence agency, mergers are unusual from the vantage point of strength. A merger takes place when there is an internal weakness wearing down the life of a militant group. Generally, terrorist groups are more prone to factionalism than coalescence. The separation takes place to get oneself heard and to swell the ranks of the splinter group with the primary aim of outclassing the competitors and engulfing the mother party. The phenomenon did not spare the TTP.

In December 2007, BaitullahMehsud founded the TTP. In 2013, Mullah Fazlullah became its Amir, the head. In 2014, the TTP began experiencing fragmentation. In August 2014, under Omar Khalid Khorasani, the JuA parted company with the TTP on differences on attacking the Pakistan Army for its launching the Operation Zarb-e Azb in the Tribal area. The JuA made its presence felt with initiating a suicide attack on the Pakistani civilians being assembled at the Wagah border on 2 November 2014 to watch a guard changing ceremony in Lahore. At that time, Ehsanullah Ehsan, the JuA’s spokesman, claimed the responsibility for the attack. Similarly, on 27 March 2016, the group carried out a suicide bombing attack consuming the lives of 70 Christians celebrating Easter in Gulshan-e Iqbal Park in Lahore.

On 11 November 2017, in Nangarhar province of Afghanistan, the JuA got divided into further two groups: theJuA and the HuA. The latter was headed by Mukarram Khan. The HuA was a non-supporter of attacks on civilians and was a promoter of attacks on Pakistan’s security forces through suicide bombing or by planting Improvised Explosive Devices, as it did in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On 8 May 2019, the HuA arranged a suicide bomb blast outside the Data Darbar (a sufi shrine) in Lahore and devoured the lives of 11 people mostly policemen.

Whereas the splitting off of the TTP into splinter groups showed the difference of opinion, the merger does not necessarily mean the convergence of opinion. The merger indicates two points. First, both the JuA and the HuA became incapable of launching major independent attacks. That is, both the JuA and the HuA failed to achieve their respective targets owing to the scarcity of resources and the dearth of manpower. Second, all the three groups faced the challenge of survival at the hands of their formidable contender, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province (ISIL-K) or Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The resourceful ISKP remained more Afghanistan oriented than skulking around in Afghanistan to attack neighbouring countries at a propitious time. This factor remained the major reason for its popularity along religio-political lines in Afghanistan.

Reportedly, after the merger, the TTP would be headed by Mufti Noor WaliMehsud as its Amir. Further, JuA’sIkramTurabi would act as the head of Amari Shura, the council entrusted with the task of taking decisions. Certainly, positions of lesser significance are offered when the splinter group’s strength wanes and they need face saving for their existence. The mother group also becomes imperious. Nevertheless, the renewed resolve to rejuvenate attacks against Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies is an unwelcome disconcerting vile move.

In the recent past, the Afghan troops remained active in shelling the area surrounding the boundary to desist the Pakistani Army’s personnel from fencing the border

There are two alarming features of the news of merger. First, the merger has taken place at the time when the US is promoting peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and the Kabul regime, which has been releasing the Taliban prisoners to meet the condition of the talks. Second, the merger has taken place at the time when Pakistan is in the throes of fencing the Pak-Afghan devious border, which is 1,600 miles (2, 640 km) long, as per the Durand Line agreement in 1893. Pakistan initiated the fencing in 2016 and has finished working on more than 800 miles of the barrier. Consequently, cross-border trails and casual roads are getting obliterated denying the TTP members a free ride across the border from their sanctuaries in Afghanistan. In the future, the movement would be possible only through the prescribed legal crossings.

In the recent past, the Afghan troops remained active in shelling the area surrounding the boundary to desist the Pakistani Army’s personnel from fencing the border. The involvement of the Afghan troops tells the reason for the purported involvement of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security in the merger. The rancour is understandable. Apparently, the diabolic objective would be achieved through the agency of the TTP.

The evolving situation is alarming and baleful stymying the past counter terrorism efforts. On 19 August 2020, an Afghan citizen was captured from Lahore Railways Station. He was part of a group intended to launch a militant attack on a police training school in Lahore. More such incidents and attacks are anticipated.

It has been observed that the Crime Investigation Department (CID), also known as the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) of police, remained successful in predicting a possible suicide attack on a target person or place. For instance, on 1 November 2014, the CID police Punjab conveyed the Rangers of the possible attack. Perceivably, in the militant groups, the CID has a better penetration than that of the Federal Investigation Agency or the Intelligence Bureau. The need is to put the CID on alert and enforce its capacity to thwart terrorism through instigating counter intelligence and counter terrorist operations.

Dr Tehmina Aslam Ranjha is an Assistant Professor at School of Intergrated Social Sciences at University of Lahore and Research Fellow at UoLCenter for Security, Strategy and Policy Research. Currently, she is SDPI’s grantee for a mega project on Countering Violent Extremism. She appears on BBC Urdu as an expert on National Security and Counter-Terrorism.

Asad Aslam Ranjha is a lecturer at Faculty of Law,University of Lahore.He tweets at @AA_Ranjha1