Prosperity and poverty Understanding theory of development

Author: Iftikhar Ahmad

The Prime Minister’s television interview to discuss two years at the helm of government provideda good view into the mindset of the current government, and was helpful in understanding its priorities and goals moving forward. But one facet of the conversation that stood out was PM Imran Khan’s unequivocal statement regarding Israelthere is no question of recognition unless Palestine is given freedom, on the surface, this is essentially a reiteration of a stance that Pakistan has held since our independence. However, given the changing scenario in global politics, it was important for the government to clarify our position as well. Arab nations that had backchannel ties with the apartheid state have now initiated more formal discussions, leading to open speculation about who else might follow. More countries in the Middle-East are open to speaking with Israel than even five years ago. At a time like this, it was crucial for Pakistan to reiterate that it stands firmly behind the cause of Palestinians.

Pakistan’s principle stance to stand against state-sponsored terrorism is also one that is consistent. Palestinians have been murdered and abused in the thousands by the Israeli state, which makes it no different than India and its actions in Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir (110K). The Modi government is now taking pages straight out of the Israeli playbook, on how to subjugate and disenfranchise an entire people. With domicile certificates being issued in the thousands ever since registration was opened for non-Kashmiri citizens, the Indian state has basically started on long-term ambitions to change the demography of the region. It is clear then, not much is different in 110K, compared to Palestine. It is important that we continue to voice support for both. For us to abandon one would mean forsaking the other, and this will never be accepted by the people or state of Pakistan.

The first month of the Islamic calendar Muharram-ul-Haram is just around the corner. The authorities, say that they have devised a fool-proof strategy-and security plan for the peaceful observance of the Muharram-ul-Haram gatherings and processions. However, the district administrations and law enforcement agencies (LEAS) across the country will have to do an additional duty this year, i.e., to ensure that the attendees also follow the safety protocols. The first ten days of this month in particular, like all other significant days that bring people in close proximity to one another will be a considerable challenge for the authorities. Over the last few years, the authorities have greatly enhanced security measures; the LEAS remain on their toes to maintain law and order and avoid any unfortunate event.

Pakistan, China to safeguard common interests. The two countries have agreed to collectively take measures to safeguard their common interests and promote peace, prosperity, and development in the region

Terrorism is always a ‘ risk, but is no longer a constant threat hanging above our heads. Expectations are high that this time too; the government will take all the steps needed to ensure that the gatherings and processions are carried out safely. However, this time the concept of safety and security cannot be looked at purely from the lens of terrorism. The idea of safety has evolved as the COVID-19has hit the world. Now social gatherings, to which people go with no intention of harming others, have become a significant challenge to public health. Therefore, people need to rethink the definition of safety and security. Our efforts to stem the tide of infections have worked well, but it is important to stay vigilant. If people show laxity in observing the guidelines regarding COVID-19, the situation in the country can get out of hand really quickly: While the hope is that the government’s security plan will deter any instances of violence or disturbance, the real and main challenge will be implementing safety measures. This time, a lot will depend on the cooperation of the people. The state can keep things normal if the masses Cooperate with the government. Otherwise, a surge in COVID-19 cases could take the country back to yet another lockdown.

CPEC is of great significance to china-Pakistan partnership, Xi tells Alvi Chinese president says Beijing, Islamabad to maintain momentum of peace in the region. China and Pakistan are good brothers, partners and have a special friendship. President Xi said since the outbreak of coronavirus, the global fight against COVID-19 has proved that mutual support solidarity and cooperation were the only way to defeat the pandemic. The Chinese president responded to a special letter of congratulations written by president Dr. ArifAlvi on the second conference of the CPEC political parties joint consultation Mechanism underway in Beijing.

Pakistan, China to safeguard common interests. The two countries have agreed to collectively take measures to safeguard their common interests and promote peace, prosperity, and development in the region. The consensus to this effect was reached during the second round of china-Pakistan foreign ministers strategic dialogue in Hainan, china. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi represented Pakistan while the Chinese side was represented by the state councilor and foreign minister wang Yi. The two sides exchanged views on COVID-19, bilateral relations and international/ regional issues of mutual interests. Two sides resolved to strengthen all round cooperation, maintaining momentum of high- level exchanges and a greater focus on advancing construction of belt and road initiatives.

The predictive Power of a theory where both small differences and contingency play key roles will be limited. Few would have predicted in the fifteenth or even the sixteenth centuries, let alone in the many centuries following the fall of the Roman Empire, that the major breakthrough toward inclusive institutions would happen in Britain. It was only the specific process of institutional drift and the nature of the critical juncture created by the opening of Atlantic trade that made this possible. Neither would many have believed in the midst of the Cultural Revolution during the 1970s that Chinawould soon be on a path toward radical changes in its economic institutions and subsequently on a breakneck growth trajectory. It is similarly impossible to predict with any certainty what the lay of the land will be in five hundred years. Yet these are not shortcomings of our theory. The historical account we have presented so far indicates that any approach based on historical determinismbased on geography, culture, or even other historical factorsis inadequate. Small differences and contingency are not just part of our theory; they are part of the shape of history.

Even greater caution is necessary in drawing policy recommendations from this broad account of the origins of prosperity and poverty. In the same way that the impact of critical junctures depends on existing institutions, how a society will respond to the same policy intervention depends on the institutions that are in place. Of course, our theory is all about how nations can take steps toward prosperityby transforming their institutions from extractive to inclusive. But it also makes it very clear from the outset that there are no easy recipes for achieving such a transition. First, the vicious circle implies that changing institutions is much harder than it first appears.

In particular, extractive institutions can re-create themselves under different guises,Thusthe fact that the extractive regime of President Mubarak was overturned by. popular protest in February 2011 does not guarantee that Egypt will move onto a path to more inclusive institutions. Instead extractive institutions may re-create themselves despite the vibrant and hopeful prodemocracy movement. Second, because the contingent path of history implies that it is difficult to know whether a particular interplay of critical junctures and existing institutional differences will lead toward more inclusive or extractive institutions, it would be heroic to formulate general policy recommendations to encourage change toward inclusive institutions. Nevertheless, our theory is still useful for policy analysis, as it enables us to recognize bad policy advice, based on either incorrect hypotheses or inadequate understanding of how institutions can change. In this, as in most things, avoiding the worst mistakes is as important asand more realistic thanattempting to develop simple solutions.

The writer is former Director National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) Government of Pakistan, a political analyst, a public policy expert, and a published author. His book post 9/11 Pakistan was published in the United States. His book Existential Question for Pakistan was recently launched and highly recommended as a must read for everyone

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