Daily Times

Among the many sea routes, the South China Sea holds tremendous economic importance. It accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s maritime shipping. This trade is estimated to be worth over USD $3 trillion. It is also believed that natural gas and oil reserves are also beneath the seabed.

The South China Sea, nevertheless, has immense geostrategic importance. However, China and the US are scuffling over this territory. On August 17, a US Navy aircraft carrier conducted exercises in the region that did compel Beijing to raise its eyebrows. Furthermore, these exercises are also termed to be the world’s largest maritime military exercise to date. During the days leading to these exercises, US President Trump toughened the US’s long-lasting neutral position on China’s claims to control the South China Sea.

These exercises are part of the “Rim of the Pacific 2020” exercises being held around Hawaii. They will include ten nations, 22 surface ships, one submarine, multiple aircraft, and over 5,000 personnel and will continue till August 31. The ten countries participating in these exercises are Australia, Brunei, Canada, France, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Republic of the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States. It is interesting to note that China is not a part of these exercises. However, China will be monitoring the strategies that the participating nations’ naval forces will be employing.

In May 1995 the US had announced that “it would take no position on the legal merits of the competing claims to sovereignty over the various islands, reefs, atolls, and cays in the South China Sea”. This was the same period when China occupied the Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. Interestingly, the Philippines and Vietnam also claim to have their control over this Reef. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo said in July 2020 that China’s entitlement of owing the offshore resources of the South China Sea is illegal. In 2016, the South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal had decreed that China had no right to control this part of the sea.

Trump administration’s strategy to counter and suppress China with regards to its dominance on the South China Sea work. President Trump must have a plan ‘B’ in place in case his initial plan to counter China backfires

The US Secretary of Defence, Mark Esper, while speaking at an online event hosted by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) said, “Our carriers have been in the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific since World War II. We will back the sovereignty of our friends and partners,” added Esper. ” (The) US policy on the South China Sea “champions a free and open Indo-Pacific… and makes clear that the PRC has not right to turn international waters into zone of exclusion or its own maritime empire.”

In a rather twist of facts, the US said something that may change the game plan for China. According to the US, it is the Philippine and not China that owns the Mischief Reef and the Second Thomas Shoal. This Reef and Shoal are situated nearly 130 nautical miles and 105 nautical miles respectively west of the Philippine Palawan Island.

The South China Sea episode will affect US-China relations. Furthermore, with the US general elections scheduled in November 2020, the Trump administration will try all in its power to create an alliance against China. It is believed that the US will ensure it has regional support – with Malaysia and the Philippines – to counter China’s advancement into the South China Sea. Such regional players will keep an eye on China’s intrusions and its maritime activities in the Sea.

Over the last many years, China has extensively built islands in the South China Sea. It has constructed bases and other military installments. The US and its allies also observe with concern and caution as China’s maritime forces advance into the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Such activities by China in the South China Sea and the East China Sea may as well affect the United States’ economic, political, and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

It is reported that the US aims to complete its strategic commitments in the Western Pacific. These include enhancing the US-led security plan in the Western Pacific and treaty commitments to Japan and the Philippines. The US also envisions itself to defend the principle of freedom of the seas and international waters. It is yet to be seen how will Trump administration’s strategy to counter and suppress China with regards to its dominance on the South China Sea work. President Trump must have a plan ‘B’ in place in case his initial plan to counter China backfires.

The writer is an independent researcher, author and columnist