Daily Times

In Pakistan there have been calls for a revolution, especially in the last few years. We saw Dharnas, Arab Springs, and now an international corruption scandal from Panama that threatens to undo it all here at home.  Fear not, Pakistan is very much immune to any such revolution.

Firstly let’s be clear, a Coup D’état is not a revolution, it is merely one set of Elites replacing another. Revolution means a complete shake up of the socio-political structure of a society like in France during the 1790’s or Russia in the early 1900’s. Both abolished centuries old monarchies. France replaced it with Democracy and Russia with Communism. In Pakistan much to the dismay of pundits, opposition leaders, and hawkish commentators such an event is unlikely to occur.

If you study history you will see that such a phenomenal event always requires mass mobilisation. Pakistanis are too diverse to mobilise on a mass scale. It is highly doubtful that Ayatullah Khomeini could have successfully led the Iranian Revolution if ninety percent of the population wasn’t Shia. We are too divided on ethnic, religious, political even provincial lines to launch such a movement on the scale required. We lack a single unifying cause, a national leader to rally behind, or an ideology to galvanize us for a revolution.

Frustration and anger of the masses can be a powerful catalyst to unite and mobilize despite demographical divisions. We saw that in the Arab Spring uprisings and the ongoing South Korean protests over corruption, led to the sacking of their prime minister. In Pakistan however there is no indication that the masses are upset enough to take to the streets on a large scale. The PTI sit-in of 2014 definitely came close but the engine behind that movement was the PTI political machinery. They spent a lot of time, energy and resources to motivate the masses to come out. It was not a typical mass movement, if it was it wouldn’t have stopped at the behest of PTI leadership that to 500 feet from parliament. Corruption just doesn’t shock us as much as it should. Maybe we have become immune over the years or maybe we believe in the biblical caution that “let he who is without sin cast the first stone.”

Frustration and anger can be powerful catalysts for uniting and mobilising the masses despite their divisions

Another crucial factor is our capital Islamabad. It’s barely half a century old with a small passive population to show for it. Historically speaking, most notable revolutions climaxed in their respective capitals like Paris, Tehran, Cairo, Moscow, Beijing, and Tripoli. Notice how these cities are all old historic capitals hundreds of years old. They are also their country’s most populated cities. Citizens of such cities are deeply rooted, numerous and relatively easier to mobilise creating a higher chance of an uprising. Combine that with the fact the palaces and parliaments are around the corner you get the perfect ingredients required for a revolution. If Karachi were still Pakistan’s capital the probability of a revolution would be much higher, especially since the city has five times the population of Islamabad. However in the current set up storming the Bastille would require immense effort and resources. An example, just the sound system bill for PTI’s sit-in was allegedly more than two million dollars.

The above forecast is not gloomy it’s actually advantageous. Revolutions often come with great social costs. The French revolution was followed by a decade of bloodshed called the ‘reign of terror’. Arab Spring revolutions have left nations like Libya in total disarray. The Iranian revolution created an ultra conservative religious autarchy. For Pakistan having a low probability for revolution is beneficial in the long run. We are a developing democracy with no tyrant that needs disposing. We don’t need to resort to extreme solutions like revolution.

Jinnah’s advice was “Let us mobilise all our resources in a systematic and organised way and tackle the grave issues that confront us.” After years of coups and chaotic civilian rule we need political stability to grow. If given that we can continue to improve our institutions and economy and solve critical problems like load shedding and terrorism. Our political parties can spend less time fighting and more time working. In a stable Pakistan the quality of life can improve. Our citizenry can be empowered. Our national image can be elevated. Diversity can be celebrated. Steadily people can transcend over divisions and begin to see themselves as Pakistani brothers and sisters in a united Pakistan that it was always intended to be. We just need stability not revolution.

The writer is an agriculturist with degrees in Economics and Mass Communication. He can be reached at Skhanzada@ymail.com