Daily Times

The peace deal, as termed by Donald Trump, between the United Arab Emirates and Israel created ripples in the muddy waters of the Muslim world sparking a sharp reaction from Iran and Turkey. The backgrounds for their outrage are different. Iran considers the peace deal against it while in Turkey’s perception; the move gives greater leverage to Israel in the Middle Eastern political and strategic chessboard. However, the peace deal was not a bombshell for the keen observers of the political and strategic scenario of the Middle East that began shaping in the propinquity to the so called Arab Spring in 2011 exposing the vulnerability of the Arab kingdoms, Emirates and Sultanates – all affluent Sparta states.

Many of these Arab monarchies were in close and not-so-clandestine communication with the Jewish state while settling their old scores with the so called radical and nationalist states including Syria, Iraq, Libya, Iraq and Yemen by helping to recruit, fund and train so called opposition groups and letting them loose in stable countries like Libya and Syria to violently overthrow the autocrats who had not only delicately maintained peace and stability in their volatile societies but constituted a perceived threat to Israel. These monarchies, in their disastrous bid to turn the fluid political and strategic conditions in the region to their selfish benefit, wanted to isolate and expel Iran from the Middle East. Turkey developed serious strategic differences with some of these Arabmonarchies on the questions of Syria, Qatar and the Brotherhood (Ikhwan ul Muslimin). Historically, the Arab hostility to Turkey has remained unabated since over two centuries – though not as old as the rivalry between Arabs and Persians.

The Arabs, notwithstanding their wealth and enormous hydrocarbon resources, have been axing their paws by unmitigated mutual rivalry and hostility undermining their power which violently culminated in the Arab Spring. Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen will take decades to overcome the death and destruction they having been suffering since 2011. The Kingdoms and Sheikhdoms, though spending more of their wealth on defence purchases, will continue to face perennial threats from the ever growing number of militant groups and the likely spillover of the political and strategic instability that has engulfed the region. The fragile countries like Jordan and Lebanon feel strangulated by the heavy weight of the Syrian refugees. The political horizon of Egypt is clouded by an explosive divide between the Ikhwans and secularists.

The Arabs thought that the overturning of the Iran nuclear deal would impact their strategic security impelling them to join hands with Israel in egging President Donald Trump to scrap the agreement. Thus, the political and strategic blueprint which was being unobtrusively drawn in the Middle East pushing Arabs into an undiminished mutual enmity and civil wars and strengthening Israel in a jungle of chaotic states has now started crystallizing. From the turmoil that overwhelmed the Arab lands from North Africa to the Arabian deserts in 2011, Israel, as expected, has emerged as a strong country. This was written on the wall. Only Arabs could not read it or read it and thought it to be in their strategic benefit.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which established close communications with Israel in the background of the Arab Spring will wait and see the reaction of the Muslim world

Four years ago, I wrote in the chapter on Israel of my book – Global Geo Political and Strategic Dynamics: Challenges for Pakistan: “the Israeli nation is today confident enough to forge ahead looking beyond the collapsing borders and armies in the Middle East. Israelis have learned the art of living alone and fighting their war alone. They have overcome their limitations and established their military superiority in the region. It is their military superiority which forces the Arab Kingdoms and Sheikhdoms to seek its security umbrella. It makes no difference for them whether the new American administration under Donald Trump continues to remain engaged militarily in the Middle East or withdraws from the region. Israel is well set to survive the current turmoil in the Arab world and emerge as the superpower of the region with Iran as the singular contestant. Freedom always demands a heavy price. The Israelis have paid this price long ago. The road ahead of them has a few bumpy patches. They are well aware of the pitfalls on their path to superiority”.

This explains the back ground of the Arab states’ compulsion to embrace the Israeli state. Exactly for these reasons, many of the Arab monarchies and Emirates, indeed, have had clandestine communications with Israel. The UAE had the cheek to break the taboo. The cause of Palestine was abandoned long ago. For years, simple statements of condemnation were hardly emerging from the Arab capitals on the atrocities perpetrated by Israel on the residents of Gaza. Israel in collusion with Egypt would have starved the Palestinian population into death had Turkey not come to their rescue or even Israel had not allowed some tonnages of provisions to the besieged population. Therefore, the mention of the Jewish Settlements in the peace deal is a fig leave and will hardly compel Israel to scrape its plans for the annexation of Jewish settlements. Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition partner won the last election on the promise of not only annexing the present settlements but extending Jewish settlements and amalgamating the Western Bank in their territory.

Now Kingdoms and Sheikhdoms from Morocco to Oman and Bahrain will follow suit. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which established close communications with Israel in the background of the Arab Spring will wait and see the reaction of the Muslim world. The KSA, having been the greatest protagonist of the Palestinian cause for self determination in the past presenting plans for two-state solution to the US leaders, and following the same with outward vigour, and being the custodian of the sacred places of the Muslim world, will feel, for time being, more comfortable in the present clandestine communications with Israel.

In the new emerging political and strategic scenario in the Middle East, Pakistan should embark on a major exercise of reviewing its foreign and security policy.

The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books