Daily Times

A year ago the 15 member UN Security Council met. All agreed that Kashmir “is not India’s internal matter”.

China supported by saying to solve Kashmir through UN resolutions, opposing any unilateral action, urging all sides to exercise restraint and stating that India’s actions have also violated China’s sovereignty and violated bilateral agreements.

Surprising indirect support from Russia. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Dmitry Polyanskiy, tweeting that

*We are friends and good partners with both #India and #Pakistan and both peoples. We have no hidden agendas. So we will open-heartedly continue to engage with Islamabad and New Delhi in order to help both of them come to terms and have good neighbourly relations #Kashmir……. on the basis of Simla Agreement of 1972 and Lahore declaration of 1999, in accordance with *UN Charter, relevant UN resolutions and bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan*

So it seems Pakistan and the Kashmiris won a small but important moral and diplomatic first round.

Projecting forward one had hoped for a possible scenario of a SC Resolution stating that

*Kashmir is not an Indian internal matter. That both countries are urged to exercise restrain and not take any unilateral actions and solve the issue under bilateral agreements (Simla Agreement and Lahore Declaration) and relevant UN Resolutions.*

Pakistan would have been happy with this moral and diplomatic victory and the fact that Kashmir had once again been internationalized and come alive. Unfortunately, didn’t happen.

Following the Israeli Model to the finest detail, India completely ignored the above, insisting it to be an internal matter and at best a bilateral issue between them and Pakistan.

That what they did was within their constitutional rights and that they will only talk to Pakistan, once it stops “promoting terror”. Basically saying we will never talk to Pakistan.

In summary India says. Let the world say what they want, we will continue doing what we want.

So where does it lead us?

Will India ever agree to negotiations over Kashmir?

My view is that in today’s world any country succumbs only if. They are economically sanctioned by the USA and other major economies like the EU, China, Russia. Clearly not going to happen to India.

A country is diplomatically isolated like apartheid period South Africa. Clearly not happening.

In Kashmir’s case the only way I see India coming to the negotiating table is if there’s sustained, prolonged, very serious and violent Internal resistance, both political and militant. And only if this resistance dramatically affects major sectors of not only Indian Occupied Kashmir, but mainland India, bringing serious disruption to the day to day life of ordinary citizens, a breakdown of law and order, serious security issues, affecting economy, foreign investment, employment, tourism, sports etc.

This resistance could take the shape of a militant freedom movement, an inurgency, guerilla operations, political assassinations, kidnappings, destroying urban peace, attacking soft targets, tourists, hotels, shopping centers, government offices and buildings, all across India.

Only this serious political and biolent unrest in Occupied Kashmir and in mainland India will add more pressure and may bring India to the negotiating table!

However a very tragic outcome of this Kashmiri freedom struggle has been the repressive and violent, clampdown and crackdown by Indian security forces. The world does not know the extent of this unending orgy of Indian state terrorism, killing and violence, against the Kashmiris.

But this and COVID has impacted India’s already tanking economy, foreign investment and trade, but not to the catastrophic and devastatiion to bring them to the negotiating table or to undo their illegal actions.

My considered view is that Modi, clearly an unstable individual, with grandiose visions of being divinely inspired to impose Hindutva, will continue to blame Pakistan for the violence, and like Israel, using security as an excuse, may launch a pre emptive strike against Pakistan. He would have done it, but for COVID and the Ladakh fiasco and bloody nose they got from China.

Like Palestine, the world will look away and like Israel, India will convert Kashmir into the world’s largest Nazi style concentration camp

Were Modi to get India involved in this foolhardy and risky, misadventure, it will certainly get a very bloody nose and tons of humiliation. But we will also suffer in the process.

But the harsh reality is that the Kashmiris have been cowed down as a result of massive brutalization and violation of human rights, violent repression, torture imprisonment and mass rape and killing.

And like Palestine, the world will look away and like Israel, India will convert Kashmir into the world’s largest Nazi style concentration camp!

The recent Pakistan – Saudi spat is an example of how the world has looked away!

Kashmir is a festering wound with very serious consequences for two very hostile on the edge neighbours, the Region and the World! One wrong move. One error of judgement. One Modi misadventure and the consequences are horrifying.

There are many possibilities.

*Most optimistic.*

An independant Kashmir, comprising Valley and AJK.

*Middle*.

Self rule of Kashmir Valley. Free cross border movement between IOK and AJK. Co Governance by Pak and India. Much like the Musharraf option agreed with Manmohan Singh.

*Semi Worst.*

Reversal to 370 status quo

*Worst case.*

Continuing violence. Repression like Gaza or West Bank. The world’s largest concentration camp. War with Pakistan.

Only the intensity and longevity of the Kashmiri freedom movement and its ability to inflict massive and unacceptable damage on India, will bring them to the negotiating table.

But only after Modi is no longer in power.

In my opinion, he has also sown the seeds of India’s future disintegration, but not before wreaking untold havoc, violence and destruction on India, Kashmir and perhaps even, Pakistan.

Pakistan’s options are limited.

Continue to rally the world and prick their conscience.

Be ready to fight India, when attacked.

If the World, especially the USA, is sensible and wants to avoid a nuclear holocaust and a Kashmiri genocide by Modi, then they must step in to stop Modi’s mad slide into Armageddon!

Haider Mehdi is a Geo political commentator / blogger on National and International affairs. Formerly a media anchor, corporate leader, management consultant, start up entrepreneur and military officer, he tweets @HaiderKonsult and blogs on shrmehdi.com