Daily Times

The common catchphrases these days may be ‘uncertainty’, ‘resilience’ or ‘chimerical’ but the losses due to COVID-19 including that of human lives and economic assets are ‘very real’. The COVID-19 pandemic buffeted economies and economic sectors across the globe without exception, with estimates showing global GDP contracting by 5.2% and World Trade Organisation predicting up to 40% decrease in global trade.

Pakistan’s situation is no different – the expected GDP growth is -0.38% for the financial year 2020, with economic gloom to continue during 2021 as well. The confirmed global patient count is over 20 million now, and loss of lives is close to 0.8 million and the numbers are still growing rapidly, with countries already experiencing a second wave. Pakistan has been fortunate to some extent, as despite a sharp spike in June, the infection ratios began to fall beyond the middle of July – weather this fortune will last, the experts have mixed views, however, all are unanimous on extending and practicing preventive measures.

Without getting into the subjective and moral debate about classifying the reported loss of approximately 6,200 lives and under 300,000 cases over six-month in Pakistan as a ‘catastrophe’ or a ‘triumph from much worse’, it is important to understand, if this flattening of infection ratio and death toll in Pakistan is a sufficient condition for economic recovery or not? Well, the evidence suggests ‘not’ as recent data from the Centre for Systems Science & Engineering at Johns Hopkins University show that the spread of the pandemic in terms of case numbers and death is quite asymmetric across countries and thus, economic losses are not correlated to health impacts or vice versa. The direct costs of COVID-19 pandemic associated with illness and mortality are much lower than the indirect losses caused by the crisis. A low impact of COVID-19 in terms of case numbers and deaths does not necessarily translate into a low economic impact. This is mainly because that the containment measures put in place to control the pandemic impacts the entire breath of supply chains, distorts functioning of markets and alters the employment incentives both for employers and workers.

Speaking to enterprises confirms the above global finding as firms and businesses across Pakistan suggest that almost all suffered loss of revenue due to the pandemic, with some sectors experiencing negative cashflows throughout the period of severe lockdown. In terms of sectoral differences, services, especially small businesses suffered the most, followed by manufacturing and then agriculture. The agriculture sector showed resilience to pandemic, however, at the same time was threatened by the looming locust threat. The supply chains and credit-cash cycles were disturbed across most sectors, for example, some struggled to get their inputs cleared from the ports, some failed to sale out their produce due to closure of markets and some had no liquidity to re-start business activities. Many businesses reported about the inability to fill vacant positions with skilled workers, which seems a surprising phenomenon given the high level of unemployment created due to the pandemic. The uncertainty about economic opportunities created due to lockdowns have altered the decision framework for workers. In Pakistan, most workers, especially in manufacturing and services sector work outside their home town. The sudden closure and a forced move back to their hometowns have resulted in workers finding economic opportunities closer to home as not only cost effective but it reduces the uncertainty they face coming back to urban centers and not finding employment. In short, where the health impact may have flattened, the economic impact and concerns remain a persistent and a deepening challenge for policymakers, who needs to resolve the uncertainty as much as possible.

Talking about policymakers, despite dramatic slogans and blames raised as political rivalry, the response by Pakistan’s policy makers is being appreciated almost as a success globally, especially, when even the largest of the economies and governments across the globe with much stronger resilience defaulted poorly. The case of Punjab, under the overall leadership of federal government has been nothing less than exemplary. Punjab was the first province to announce an immediate relief plan within a week of the outbreak and take actions when infection numbers were not even beyond two digits. Moreover, the province did not stop at immediate relief, it came up with a medium term response – the Responsible Investment for Economic Stimulus and Social Protection (RISE Framework) Framework. The framework that was led and managed by the senior management of the Planning & Development Board, supported by technical expertise of ‘trusted-advisors’ under a positive partnership with DFID, UK, steered strategically and owned politically by the Finance Minister and the Chief Minister and reviewed for improvement by over 200 academics, practitioners, CSOs, business & private sector representative and development specialists, provided not only an immediate quick fix, but an articulated medium term road-map. The document RISE Punjab, may even still be critiqued for missing a statistic or an argument here or there but the real success of the document amid severe pandemic was to provide certainty on policy and direction to a battered private sector. It greatly helped them put a frame together to start putting the broken pieces of the economic picture together – the road to recovery may be long and though, but the government played a major part by providing a pathway and now looks up to the private sector and its citizens to play its part.

Speaking of citizens, the form a key piece in resolving the overall COVID-19 puzzle. It is clear, that lockdowns are not economically sustainable and the maximum stint that the economy could afford has been exercised by the government. The smart lockdown is an effective strategy but works only if citizens are responsive and responsible – prefer the common good before the private good. No government, good or bad, large or small can play the role that citizens have to play in restraining COVID-19. Unfortunately, the citizens’ response post relaxation of lockdown is not only reckless but is absolutely thoughtless. Easing of lockdown has been taken as an end of COVID-19. The GTs of social elites blossomed, markets flocked and the home stricken anxious made way to touristy spots walking amidst beautiful mountains and valleys of Pakistan – one can understand the need for outdoor activity post a six month restraint, but for what it is worth, should it be done without masks and without observing safe distancing, do suddenly value of life of those near and dear or even a common citizen takes precedence over a ‘selfie’ – It was shocking to see even celebrities posing for pictures in mountains with crowds flocking without mask and standing hand in hand, when they as a public figures should show social responsibility – an act of ‘heroism’ or ‘covid-idiotism’ it does makes one wonder!

The writer is a social & economic policy expert and Innovation lead at SNG