Daily Times

“Is not Death the sole comfort of the Miserables?” Khalil Gibran Lebanon, the “cradle of civilization” and part of “Fertile Crescent” was hit by a massive explosion that rocked Beirut on 4th August 2020 leaving100 dead and thousands injured with bodies still buried in the rubbles. A giant mushroom cloud blast destroyed city’s port wheat silos flattening much of the port and damaging buildings across the capital. Beirut Governor Marwan Abboud compared it to a “national disaster akin to Hiroshima.” broke into tears saying, “Beirut is a devastated city.” Authorities are still not clear about the cause of the explosion but link the blast to confiscated ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse at the port. The US embassy in Beirut viewing the intensity of the blast, warned residents about reports of toxic gases released by the explosion, urging people to stay indoors. A day earlier Nassif Hitti resigned from the post of Foreign Minister, stating. “Lebanon today is sliding towards becoming a failed state” as its government showed lack of reformist will. This resignation is the biggest blow yet to PM Diab’s 6-month-old government. Lebanon’s political turmoil is directly linked with its economic failures. Its decade long US backed “Ponzi scheme” economy is broken, facing worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. Millions are grappling with hyperinflation, unemployment, hunger and electricity blackouts. Masses blame this economic crisis, a result of years of corruption by politicians who own 40% of bank assets. Financial mismanagement and US blockade resulted in closure of business and trade. The effects of the economic meltdown infiltrated the daily lives of the public. The Lebanese pound lost over 80% of its value since Oct 2019. Almost 50% of its population is now forced to live under the poverty line. Mass protests have become a norm, street demonstrations against government blame ruling elites who have dominated politics for years andamased their own wealth but failed to carry needed reforms in the public sector. Though outwardly Lebanon economic crisis is a case of indigenous corruptions and policy failures but somehow the fictional speed of the vicious cycle of unfortunate incidents that happen in the Muslim world bear an uncanny semblance to Samuel Huntington’s theory of “A Clash of Civilisation”, one of his hypothesis predicts a world war among the major civilisations in 2020. According to which future fault line will centre around culture and religion. According to NY Times a secretive Pentagon directive orders planning for “aggressive new actions” against Hezbollah, a militia group backed by Iran. It was initially thought that assassination of Iranian general Qassim Suleimani would deter future Iranian retaliation plans but attack on Taji base killing British and US personnel proved Bernie Sanders correct, “it failed to achieve its goal.” Hizbollah serves as the most successful, deadliest export of 1979 Iranian revolution. It claims credit for the departure of US and French military in 1984-85, retreat of Israel from Beirut to a security zone in southern Lebanon and under Hassan NasrAllah participates in parliamentary elections and their alliance with Michel Aoun gives constitutional lever to manipulate and paralyze government at will. Iranian leadership can look with satisfaction on what their four decade investment in Lebanon has yielded. Though today Israel claims “no connection” to Beirut blast but how can we forget Nethanyahu warned Hizbollah, “we will do what is necessary….these are no vain words; they have the weight of the State of Israel.”

Lebanon serves as a symbolic Armageddon where different religious and cultural armies are indulging in multiple proxy wars. There are elements who trace connection between conversion of Hagia Sofia into a mosque followed by a resentment from opposite forces

Lebanon serves as a symbolic Armageddon where different religious and cultural armies are indulging in multiple proxy wars. There are elements who trace connection between conversion of Hagia Sofia into a mosque followed by a resentment from opposite forces. A pro-government media group in Turkey foresees a reinstatement of the Caliphate abolished in 1924. They find it as a next step in President Erdogan’s hidden agenda and commitment to rectify perceived historical wrongs of Ataturk. President Erdogan seeks to institute certain revisions in the Treaty of Lausanne and laments the content that forced Turkey. As the treaty expires in 2023, Turkey seems poised to mould a new age of “pious generation.” China has long envisioned itself as the world’s premier through a peaceful approach. With a strong economy what it desires next through its One Belt One Road “yidai yilu” project, Lebanon’s northern port of Tripoli as a terminal, that carves a trade route from east Asia to Europe. If Lebanon turns east toward China for its economic woes, it undoubtly upsets US, Israel and its European allies. What need to be seen is was this blast a response of US and its allies to Chinese advances in this region?

Special Advisor (Pakistan Institute of Management, Lahore operated under Federal Ministry of Industries and Production, Islamabad) and Foreign Research Associate (Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad)