Daily Times

Last week, I received a call from a board member of a FTSE 100 company who wanted to have a conversation on Pakistan’s economy and the country’s overall geopolitical assessment. In a 45-minute chat, he made one very interesting point- he quoted Jinnah’s 1947 interview with Life Magazine: “Pakistan is the pivot of the world, as we are placed”, spoke Jinnah. It raised the question of whether Pakistan was able enough to strategize its internal economic mechanism to improve its people’s lives, gain a competitive edge in the regional and global arena or instead relied heavily on international assistance for its progress.

It looks like, Pakistan’s economic vision was not ironed out well after the creation – if we are indeed the pivot, what exactly are we hoping this pivot to provide, other than access to cheap labour and other such inexpensive commodities? It begs the question of, does our geopolitics situate us in a position of power, or one that serves to benefit the big guns? This has not been entirely clear but seems to lean towards the latter. Such ideas have made it especially challenging for successive leaders of Pakistan to operate on a strong foundation.

As popular opinion dictates, Imran Khan’s new Pakistan appears to be in shambles. One doesn’t have to delve too deep to notice what is quite evident: coalition partners are reconsidering their strategy; the ‘Minus-1 formula’ is the talk of the town; dirty inhouse leg pulling is underway; the powerful army has put on its thinking hats again; tax collection has declined, there is excessive involvement of government aides in the sugar crisis; talk of unrealistic 5 million houses projects is being tossed around, the ambitious promises of providing employment are nowhere to be seen; the recent PIA communication blunder has further weakened the country’s reputation globally and the economy is struggling even more than it did in 2018 when Khan came to power. To top it all, the health system is overwhelmed by increasing Covid-19 effects and Khan has been unsuccessful in gaining any international support on bringing significant investments.

As a cricket lover, perhaps the only saving grace for me is the successful continuation of PSL matches in Pakistan since 2017 along with the MCC’s cricketing tour of Pakistan in 2019- the only badge this government can proudly wear. I must give credit to Najam Sethi and Ehsan Mani and their teams for this.

Imran Khan swept to power with full support of Pakistan’s military in the summer of 2018 with the promise to usher in a new era of change in Pakistan, underlined by a significant campaign slogan “Nay? (read: new) Pakistan.” That was a big promise in a country that has been historically dogged by religious and political corruption since gaining independence. In fact, Khan’s predecessor, Nawaz Sharif was removed from office on exaggerated corruption charges and so Pakistan’s armed forces bolstered Khan in the hope that he would be more effective than Sharif while not challenging their supremacy and financial liberty in a debt-ridden country.

He began with a 90-days promise to change the strategic direction of the country. In just one week, he had expanded the deadline to six months. A month or two later he moved to a period of twelve months. Now almost two years on, he seems to be somewhat oblivious to his ’cause’. His popularity ratings have fallen. Every day he is sinking further into deep waters with no clear communication strategy, announcing unrealistic and meaningless projects. At this point, the country’s economy is struggling-the GDP is flat negative-and inflation is the highest it has been in the last 8 years.

Today, the government of Pakistan appears to be in an organised chaos, of sorts. More than 50 cabinet ministers have worked with this two-year administration, many of whom previously served in the Musharraf and PPP administrations; not quite the ‘new era’ that middle class Pakistanis had been promised. As a result, the current situation has left many questioning as to which is more toxic: the old corrupt but somewhat functional system or Mr. Khan’s new approach to running Pakistan, which has been ineffective, to say the very least.

Khan’s initial confidence came with the hope of being able to replicate his winning cricket team strategy. Unfortunately, no such political team has materialised – I think it was a foolish assumption to begin with.

Secondly, his strategy to continuously sing the mantra of corruption and investigations prevalent in previous governments has disallowed him from looking ahead and working on his own strategy. This strategy might have reduced the voices that challenged his policies, but I doubt it would help in delivering anything for the people of Pakistan. The belief that there is no other option for Pakistan and its military other than Imran Khan is a baseless misunderstanding which we ought to correct sooner than later.

The ongoing pandemic has compounded all these issues, again showing the Pakistani government of being woefully unprepared and being out of its depth. Not only did the Prime Minister and his cabinet dismiss the virus initially as just a flu, telling the public to remedy its effects by drinking hot water, they have also failed to assign adequate resources in the fight against the disease.

On some level, one questions, was the Khan project a hopeless dream? For someone who landed with a ‘clean’ slate and was the darling of many in Pakistan and around the world, how long before it gets too late for his team to start delivering. Detangling the many issues in Pakistan has been a challenge for all leaders before him, but if there is one person who could and perhaps still can bring some change on some level, it is Imran Khan. Otherwise, there are many who can be easily mobilized when required- but is that all that is at play here? One would certainly hope not.

Shoaib Bajwa is founder of a London based geo-political due diligence and strategic advisory firm, CTD Advisors Shoaib.bajwa@ctdadvisors.com