Daily Times

Afghanistan has not seen peace and tranquility since the Soviet Union invaded the country as a part of its expansionist strategy. The United States, an arch Soviet rival entered the arena to circumscribe the former through its alliance with jihadists (holy warriors) using Pakistani state which was a nexus of its kind; the nexus of holy warriors and crusaders against communist Russians.

After the Soviet debacle at the hands of jihadists, things were changed. The former allies were designated as terrorists and Pakistan was penalized by economic sanctions through Pressler amendment. The Soviet withdrawal created a power vacuum and to fill it different factions of jihadists started infightings which culminated in the capture of Kabul by the Taliban. The Taliban ruled the country until the incident of 9/11 happened which gave the US a pretext to winkle them out of the power.

Then came the darkest era of violence andhorrors which engulfed hundreds of thousands of innocent lives and ravaged the whole infrastructure of the county. After the protracted war, both parties realized that they could not end the conflict without a negotiated settlement that would be acceptable to both sides.

From the moment, the US and the Taliban signed the peace deal in Doha Qatar this year, many are optimistic about the arrival of peace and normalcy in the country. However, optimismis a goodthing but when it overshadows the reality, things are backfired. The peace in Afghanistan does not merely depend upon thewithdrawal of forces, rather, until the interests of all major stakeholders are met, peace is elusive.

Afghanistan has always been an epicenter of global powers’ proxies and also the neighboring countries including India, Pakistan, and Iran. Hence, the future of the country cannot be decided only by the US and the Taliban. All major stakeholders have conflicting hidden interests in Afghanistan which are impacting the peace process.

China:it wants to exploit enormousAfghan’s mineral market and to ensure the smooth running of its belt and road initiative related projects. Moreover, it wants to keep extremists tendencies away from its border areas as these could destabilize its already ethnically disturbed province Xinxiang. Thus, peace in Afghanistan is as imperative for China as it is for Afghanistan.

Pakistan: having a 2200 kilometer porous border with Afghanistan,Pakistan has always been apprehensive of its security and role of India using Afghanistan against it. At present, Pakistan has two broader interests: to stop cross border terrorism as it wants to mainstream its border areas, the erstwhile FATA. Secondly, to keep India out of Afghanistan as it has been using Afghan soil to create insurgency in erstwhile FATA and Baluchistan. Hence, Pakistan’s interests are aligned with a peaceful Afghanistan.

Russia: Russia, once a bringer of catastrophes on Afghan soil, now, does not have any hegemonic design in the country. It wants to protect its backyard from extremism and terrorism to get maximum advantage of the new Central Asian great game. Hence, peace in Afghanistan will also serve Russian’s interests.

Afghanistan’s internal power dynamics will also shape the future of the country. The Taliban are already losing the support of some of their radical factions who were not in favor of a deal with the US

US: the US signed the deal with the Taliban not to bring peace in the country but to get a safe passage and to secure some domestic electoral interests. Without a deal, the withdrawal would have been considered as a debacle of the US imperious military might which would have also depleted its global standing as a superpower. The US hasstill many unfulfilled strategic objectives in Afghanistan and without achieving them, it will not leave the country. Washington sees Chines rise as a threat to its existence and will not let any effort in containing it. Afghanistan is its base station from where it will derail belt and road projects by creating insurgency in the region. The emergence of ISIK can be seen in this perspective as it has been considerably gaining ground in Afghanistan. The US can also use Afghani soil to hire and train fighters for East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement to create insurgency in Xinxiang. The withdrawal of forces does not mean that the US will leave and peace would again come to the country. It is a part of the US new retrenchment strategy which aimed to reduce unnecessary military spending abroad. The US strategic interests in Afghanistan are the same as they were when it invaded the country in 2001; by the recent peace deal, it has just changed itstactics to secure those interestsmore efficiently and cost-effectively and ISIK is its practical manifestation.

India:It has many strategic interests in Afghanistan but the pivotal among all is the encirclement of Pakistan. It has been using Afghan soil to create insurgency in FATA, Baluchistan, and Karachi by providing financial, technical, and logistic support to TTP, BLA, BLF, and many other terrorist organizations. Moreover, India being a strategic US ally, has also gone a step further in containing China in the region. The recent Sino/Indian standoff in Doklam is being seen by many strategic analysts as a part of a broader US strategy to contain China. Hence, Indians’ interests are aligned with those of the US which can only be served by flaring insurgency that could engulf Afghanistan ingeneral and Pakistan and China inparticular.

Afghanistan’s internal power dynamics will also shape the future of the country. The Taliban are already losing the support of some of their radical factions who were not in favor of a deal with the US. This vacuum could befilled by Islamic State which is more radical, ruthless, and atrocious as the recent attacks including on maternity center in Kabul revealed. Abu Hamza al-Qureshi, IS spokesperson has already declared the Taliban apostates for signing the deal with the crusaders.

In the intra-Afghan dialogue, the thorniest issue would be the nature of the state and the constitution. Ashraf Ghani, along with his northern allies, has already started seeking international support to make the end state a republic. This would be the biggest challenge for the Taliban to extend an iota of concession to this demand. Even if they are compelled to accept a moderate constitution, they will still lose the support of a broad faction of their ideological warriors. In this case, ISKP will fill the space and an endless cascade of violence would be the future of Afghanistan.

To bring normalcy in Afghanistan is not as easy as it looks. The conflicting interests of major stakeholders are real impediments. China, Pakistan, and Russia are on one page since their interests are entwined with peace in Afghanistan. While on the other hand, India and the US are on the devil side as their interests lie in sabotaging BRI and CPEC which can only be done by creating and flaring insurgency in both China and Pakistan using Afghan soil. Moreover,seekingtoo manyconcessions from the Taliban would also be a grave mistake as they have their compulsions. Otherwise, if they lose the ground to ISKP, not only the future of Afghanistan but also the whole region would be in chaos.

The writer is a freelancer