Daily Times

Tehran – Beijing’s current show of political sagacity via announcing a new historic deal on the Chabahar port, a project of profound leverage, has opened a new window of opportunity for not only the peoples of two countries but also for the populace of the whole region. India’s apparent decision to go along with the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran has rightly propelled the Iranian leadership to look for a better alternative via an epoch-making deal on the Chabahar port project. Needless to say, the China-Iran deal is morphing the region’s geopolitical tapestry in many ways, particularly China’s CPEC and Gwadar strategy and its relations with Iran, Pakistan and other actors in the region. The US-based South Asian affairs expert, Michael Kugelman has tweeted that the emerging China-Iran deal is a watershed for international relations.

Iran’s visionary and resourceful decision of ousting India from the said deal (formerly signed between Tehran and New Delhi in May-2016) has created a new strategic environment of making a new geopolitical matrix in the region, paving the way for Chinese expanding connectivity. Though apparently, Iran has attributed putting India’s participation aside on account of delays in Indian funding and other aspects of project implementation, the truth advocates that it is the dictate of geopolitics. China and Iran are giving final shape to a colossal partnership package worth $400-billion, to be spread over the next two decades and a half. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has recently kept busy with diplomatic visits to neighbouring countries.

The China-Iran deal will not only give a boost to the growing Turkey-Russia-China-Iran strategic gamut but also revitalize the Pak-Iran relations

Notably, on May 23, Javed Zarif arrived in Islamabad, his third trip to Pakistan since Prime Minister Imran Khan took office in August 2018, and held talks with Khan, army chief Qamar Bajwa, Speaker Asad Qaisar and his counterpart, Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The current development has eclipsed the Indian hopes as, since 2013, India remains involved in the construction and maintenance of Chabahar Port. China’s access to the Gwader port and its de facto control in Februrary-2019 has been a serious concern for India. According to reports, Beijing and Tehran are diplomatically engaged in forming an extensive trade and military partnership. Needless to say, for Iran, such a deal could throw the embattled country a much-needed economic lifeline. Iran is already a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and in September 2019 China announced its intent to infuse $400 billion worth of investments in Iran’s oil and gas, infrastructure and transportation sectors.

The newly espoused partnership, firstly proposed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a visit to Iran in 2016 — was subsequently approved by President Hassan Rouhani’s cabinet in June, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said last week. The current deal is part of the China-Iran 25 -year strategic partnership. According to leaked versions of the 18-page ‘Comprehensive Plan for Cooperation between Iran and China’ being finalised by officials in Tehran and Beijing, the cooperation will extend from investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and upgrading energy and transport facilities, to refurbishing ports, refineries and other installations, and will commit Iranian oil and gas supplies to China during that period.

Amidst the growing US strategy to isolate Iran, Tehran has in recent months largely reached out to Beijing. China remains Iran’s main trading partner but trade between the two sides had reasonably declined due to U.S. pressure in recent years.  The deal between the two sides would be far-reaching as It would increase intelligence sharing and security and military cooperation, including in possible missions in Syria and Iraq; It would also enlarge Chinese companies’ footprints in Iranian railroads, ports and telecommunications; and most importantly, securing for Beijing a steady and discounted Iranian oil supply for the next quarter-century . According to the plan of the said deal, China would develop free-trade zones in strategic locations in Iran, further binding the country into Beijing’s sprawling Belt and Road global trade and development initiative.  Many Chinese companies including China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have pinned their stakes in Iran’s oil and gas exploration.

Nonetheless, New Delhi’s bowing to the US- imposed sanctions on Iran has intrinsically pushed India in a corner over its relations with Tehran. In this growing geopolitical scenario, the Washington – Beijing tussle of interests — arriving in Iran provides a big policy dilemma for New Delhi, which has been facing the task of rebalancing its relations with the US and Iran. Yet not surprisingly, after its reversal on Chabahar port, Tehran has also decided to cancel the Iran-India Gas-pipeline project (a double- blow for India). Last week, Masoud Karbasian, managing director of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), told reporters.

The China-Iran deal will not only give a boost to the growing Turkey-Russia-China-Iran strategic gamut but also revitalize the Pak-Iran relations. Geopolitically, the emerging political and economic integration of Eurasia is part of the growing partnership between Turkey- Russia-Iran relationships—giving the Iranian leadership the confidence that they can wait out Trump. After the US announced fresh sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank, Russia’s foreign ministry immediately declared Moscow would ignore them. “This will not impact our approaches to Iran”, said Zamir Kabulov, a Russian foreign ministry official, according to RIA Novosti. “We will continue to cooperate with Iran in the banking sphere as planned.” Today, pragmatism drives Iran’s eastward policy– the cornerstone of Iran’s foreign policy, per se.

Ariane M. Tabatabai an expert on the Iranian affairs, argues in her book ‘No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran’s National Security Strategy’ that Iran’s national security policy today is largely shaped by its strategic culture, a product of the country’s historical experiences of war and peace. As a result, Iranian strategic thinking is perhaps best characterised by its dynamic yet resilient nature.

Undeniably, Iran’s political leadership, by reviewing its decision on the Chabahar port project, has rightly shown the political correctness that Iran has the sovereign right to participate in any regional integration projects that it wants to, especially those such as E-CPEC+ which could ensure its long-term economic security amidst the U.S. ever-tightening sanctions pressure vis-à-vis the Iran nuclear deal. One of the most growing impacts of the deal is that sidelining India by Iran from Chabahar port would bring peace and maintain security on western borders of Pakistan.

China is already engaged in a trilateral peace dialogue between Beijing, Kabul, and Islamabad. Given all that, it is a paramount need that Iran must reset its peaceful relations with Pakistan since the issue of its proxy war in Baluchistan is highly alarming for the future of CPEC and the Gwader port. After Iran’s interest in the CPEC, Kabul may also be gravitated towards getting the fruits from the ongoing CPEC activity in the region-remaking new vistas of geopolitical reorientations of peace and prosperity.

The writer is an independent ‘IR’ researcher and international law analyst based in Pakistan