Daily Times

In contemporary times, the debate on geopolitics is replete with China’s unprecedented rise under president Xi Jinping. While a vast majority of political scientists argues that China is inevitably going to be world’s next superpower considering the Chinese economic miracle and growing military prowess, some are sceptical of China’s drift towards authoritarianism, terming it a sure recipe for eventual catastrophe. Regardless, what is clear is that China is undergoing an irreversible change under President Xi, now elected as the lifetime paramount leader of the country.

Since assuming office, President Xi has significantly altered China’s internal political discourse, besides having embarked upon an aggressive foreign policy on the external front. Internally, he has cracked down on corrupt practices deeply entrenched in Chinese administrative culture. According to a tally, the Chinese government has rounded up two million people, and several Communist party officials have been prosecuted and meted out severe punishment for their graft activities. Though Xi administration has drawn flak from the west for what they call a state-sponsored “witch-hunting” campaign designed to persecute president’s opponents on the pretext of uprooting corruption, the ruthless campaign shows no sign of abating, as business owners, bankers, former ministers and military men continue to be sent behind bars for their alleged ill-practices.

Besides, it is a widely held notion that freedom of expression has greatly shrunk under President Xi’s iron-fisted rule. Protests are banned in China, and anything against the officially sanctioned narrative is considered a crime. Mainstream media is duty-bound to toe the official line, while social media faces strict oversight of the state with no room for dissent. This fact could well be established from China’s recent rather cavalier initial handling of the coronavirus outbreak in the city of Wuhan. The courageous self-appointed journalists who told the world about grim stories from Wuhan, at a time when official version seemed to downplay the severity of the pandemic, went missing soon after for their dissenting reportage.

Chinese repressive attitude towards Kazaks and Uighurs, an ethnic Muslim minority, in the province of Xinjiang is yet another stark example of China’s autocratic leaning under President Xi. According to Amnesty International, around a million Uighurs Muslims are languishing in so-called “re-education camps” in Xinjiang. They are being treated brutally and forced to give up their religious beliefs and practices. Authorities are trying to shape nationalistic citizens out of what they call extremists and separatists. New laws have banned sporting abnormally long beard and taking children to mosques. This brutal treatment has drawn harsh criticism from western media, international civil society, and international organisations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. However, such cries have fallen on deaf years of Communist party leaders who continue to dismiss them as spurious charges and propaganda against the socialist state.

Another iteration of Chinese totalitarian designs is the recently enacted National Security Law for Hongkong, which has grabbed international headlines and generated heated debate across the world. The US, the EU and other liberal voices have roundly condemned the law, which they see as a flagrant violation of Chinese commitment under “One Country Two Systems” pledged back in 1997. The concerns within the liberal quarters are not without reason, as the law criminalizes dissent by allowing national security cases to be tried before government-appointed judges, in secret and without a jury, or on the Chinese mainland. It will reasonably prove to be the proverbial final nail in the coffin of any remnants of democratic rule within the Chinese-controlled territories.

On the external front, China seems bent upon claiming a greater share of power in global power dynamics. Since assuming office, President Xi has vociferously been peddling the term “Chinese Dream” as a national plan aimed at the revitalisation of the nation. Analysts argue that one of driving forces behind aggressive disposition of Chinese foreign policy has been the deep-seated resentment of what is known in history as “Century of Humiliation”– the period of intervention and subjugation of the Chinese Empire by foreign powers between 1839 and 1949. Unlike his predecessors, Xi Jinping seems convinced that time is ripe for China to abandon former President Deng Xiaoping’s famous dictum, “Hide your strength, bide your time,” and flex its economic and military muscles to right the historic wrongs.

True to this vision, President Xi floated “Belt and Road Initiative” back in 2013 as a global development strategy aimed at promoting regional connectivity and infrastructural development of the participating countries. The plan is rightly considered the centrepiece of Chinese foreign policy and a true embodiment of Xi Jinping’s grand strategy of rebalancing the global balance of power. Despite stern resistance and vicious propaganda by the US and its allies to depict it as a debt trap, BRI has been greatly successful with 138 countries now having become a part of it.

Commenting on Chinese assertiveness on the international geopolitical stage, Council of Foreign Relation’s senior analyst, Elizabeth C Economy wrote, “Under Xi, China now actively seeks to shape international norms and institutions and forcefully asserts its presence on the global stage.” Development of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as a Chinese-led alternative to global financial institutions led by West, is a clear indication as to how China will deal with biased international structures should its due share of power is denied.

Chinese expansionist claims in the South China Sea have popped up with renewed assertiveness under Xi Jinping. China has dredged islands in the region for new military bases, expanded its marine corps from 20,000 troops to 100,000, and has started transforming its naval arsenal by including new warships, aircraft carriers, and air defence missile system to challenge the US and its allies in the region. Increased naval drills by China in wider Indo-Pacific region have alarmed the QUAD countries, who have started sending naval patrol ships on the pretext of guarding freedom of navigation required under UNCLOS (law of the sea convention).

Another glaring feature of Chinese foreign policy under Xi has been the heightened “One-China” rhetoric. To this effect, mainland China has stepped up its military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, repeatedly calling it an “inalienable part” of mainland China. The naval and aerial patrolling of Taiwanese borders have increased unprecedentedly, and Chinese representatives have been constantly castigating democratic rule in the island state.

Chinese aggressive disposition has manifested itself in its neighbourhood as well. Although recent Sino-India border stand-off came as surprise to many, yet analysts believe that it was a part of a bigger plot to upset the US’ major regional ally and counter-balance to China. Similarly, China’s reported economic deal with Iran to the tune of a staggering $400 bn in the face of US sanctions is yet another exhibition of China’s readiness to oppose the US-led world order. Besides, Chinese tit-for-tat approach in much-debated US-China trade war and more recent technological warfare testify that China is ready to confront the declining superpower in all realms of competition. Arguably, one cannot rule out the possibility of “Thucydides Trap” coming into play for one more time in human history.

Hence, China under Xi Jinping has turned many corners. The person calling the shots in Beijing has taken upon himself to purge the country of what he deems as the filth in its midst with an iron hand. Besides, he has vowed to challenge the West-dominated global power structures and earn his country the larger say and clout in the international comity of states. Everything comes at a cost; how this tremendous convulsion plays out for China remains to be seen. But for the foreseeable future, China is here to stay in the global spotlight as a power to be reckoned with.

The writer is a freelance columnist based in Lahore with a special interest in geopolitics