Daily Times

India suffers with a major blow on geo-strategic front as Iran drops her from Chabahar rail project. Under the agreement reached in 2016, India was to lay a railway line from Chabahar to Zahedan. However, India’sdream to extend her influence in Afghanistan via Chabahar seems highly unlikely to materialize. Iran has excluded India due to non-availability of funds from her for the construction of the railway project and delay in its commencement.Iran has started work on the 628-km-long railway line that, in future, will run from Zahedan to the Zaranj region of Afghanistan.

With an ailing economy due to crippling U.S. sanctions, Tehran has stunned many with its decision. The decision has been made at a time when Tehran and Beijing have almost reached an agreement on a long-term strategic partnership worth $400 billion that both the countries have been working since 2016. The 25-year long-term dealwill cover cooperation between the two countries in investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and upgrading energy and transport facilities. The draft deal will also cover refurbishing ports, refineries and other installations, and will commit Iranian oil and gas supplies to China during that period. It seems the proposed long-term strategic partnership has given Tehran confidence to initiate rail project on its own.

Despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, New Delhi manage to get exemption for Chabahar from Washington. So, why did New Delhi delay? The U.S. has intensified it maximum pressure campaign on Tehran. Part of which was to revoke waivers on Iranian oil imports to countries like India. New Delhi succumb to U.S pressure and zeroed its oil imports from Tehran. In case of Chabahar rail project, despiteexemption, Washington never allowed New Delhi to go on with the project. So, the U.S. pressure on New Deli might have caused the delay that got India kicked out from Chabahar rail project.

Many Indians believe New Delhi can rejoin the project. Yes, if Tehran allows. But it seems highly unlikely as Tehran has promised Beijing a major role at Chabahar port. Beijing will never allow its regional rival backed by its arch global rival, U.S., to come back and use Chabahar for economic and geostrategic purposes. So, New Delhi should understand: ouster from the rail project means expulsion from the Chabahar port.

How New Delhi’s ouster from Chabahar will impact its influence in Afghanistan?Ever since 9/11, New Delhi has been striving hard to enhance its influence in Afghanistan at the expense of Islamabad that always has an added advantage of geographic, ethnic, religious and cultural connections with the Kabul. Due to unfriendly ties with Islamabad, New Delhi was unable to use Pakistan as a transit route for her trade with the Kabul. To reduce this limitation, New Delhi embarked upon the Chabahar port project to achieve its geostrategic goals. The tri-lateral agreement signed between New Delhi, Tehran and Kabul in 2016 was meant to provide alternate trade route to Kabul and to limit Islamabad’s influence. Indian has also built a 230-kilometer long Zaranj-Dilaram strategic road at a hefty men and material cost. New Delhi’s ouster from Chabahar will be a great blow to its geostrategic interests in Kabul. It will limit her influence and allow Pakistan to extend its sphere of influence in Afghanistan.

India’s expulsion from Chabahar rail project and Beijing-Tehran long-term strategic partnership will not only expand Beijing regional influence but also accelerate the power shift from the West to the East

New Delhi ouster from the Chabahar project could positively impact Islamabad-Tehran bilateral relations. Chabahar port has been a contentious issue between the two countries as Islamabad looks it with suspicion due to New Delhi active role. Islamabad believes New Delhi wants to use Chabahar port to limit its influence in Afghanistan and to interfere in Balochistan. India spy KalbushanYadev has confessed to operate from Chabahar. Indian complete ouster or limited role at Chabahar port will positively impact Pak-Iran bilateral ties. China with a greater role at Chabahar port will ensure regional peace, stability and cooperation. Islamabad and Tehran have already convergence of interest in Afghanistan. Both countries have good working relationship with the Afghan Taliban. Once apprehensions and misconceptions regarding Chabahar removed, both countries could work together to enhance bilateral ties.

New Delhi’s greater involvement at Chabahar port project and her unfriendly bilateral relations with China made many analysts believe Chabahar port as Indian response to undermine Gwadar’s role as a major port and regional hub of connectivity. Tehran had already proposed to connect Chabahar to Gwadar. With Indian ouster, Gwadar and Chabahar ports will no more be seen as rival ports but platforms for extending trade, investment and good will.

India’s expulsion from Chabahar rail project and Beijing-Tehran long-term strategic partnership will not only expand Beijing regional influence but also accelerate the power shift from the West to the East. With the threat of Chabahar thwarted, Beijing will have full control over the waters from Gwadar to Chabahar.

New Delhi has not only strengthened her ties with Washington but also Tel Aviv – Tehran’s arch rival. It has zeroed-out Iranian oil imports due to U.S. sanctions. Washington also props up New Delhi against Beijing to limit her global influence. New Delhi’s enthusiasm for Washington have contributed to Indian exclusion from Chabahar rail project. As Tehran and Beijing come closer, Tehran-New Delhi bilateral ties will be further weaken. Hence, Tehran’s decision should be considered as a calculated move that will ultimately further limit New Delhi role at Chabahar port.

The writer is a journalist & analyst working at the International Desk of a news channel