Daily Times

In my earlier piece on the subject I had argued that Indian leadership under its delusionary mind set continues to make strategic miscalculations of historical proportions ; while dealing with its neighbours and minorities read Muslims . The delusionary mindset of Indian leadership permeates almost the entire political hierarchy of BJP , the Army High Command, the savoy business tycoons and rating conscious electronic media , which has not allowed the delusionary spell to shatter , till the “ Neighbour “ came knocking on the door which shattered the delusionary dream for a while for sure i. “ Nobody has intruded into our border , neither anybody now , nor have our posts been captured “ PM Narender Modi denied and contradicted his own Foreign Minister who had stated that “the chinese side sought to erect a structure in Gawan valley on our side of the LAC “ . Thus PM Modi set the stage for a cover up for an “ Strategic retreat “ . The media reports suggest that China and India have agreed on the “ terms of disengagement “ on 30th June after three rounds of talks at the Military leadership level and final node of approval to the terms of disengagement was given during a video meeting between Indian NSA Mr Ajit Deval and Chinese Foreign Minister Mr Wang yi . The detailed terms of disengagement have not been made public yet , however some Indian analysts critical of handling of the crisis by the BJP Government have alluded to some unnamed sources , that China has asserted that they only recognize the Line of Actual Control as agreed in November 1959, and have laid claim on the entire Galwan Valley and that India has agreed to disengagement on the Chinese terms .According to these analysts the disengagement on the Chinese terms will put pressure on the Indian Army in three ways one, that they will have to strengthen the eastern side of Indo-China border which includes Sikkim and Archun Pradesh to forestall any future incursion by China in this sector, second , to create a Military Ecosystem including stockpiling of ammunition and supplies , lots of which have to be imported since India lacks indegenious production , unlike China which is self sufficient in its defence equipment and ammunition, third Indian Army has to prepare for a war and develop a credible War Doctrine for war with technologically advanced and Economically far stronger adversary China . The analysts are of the view that the Indian Army not only is outgunned and outnumbered by the Chinese Army , but it does not even have a credible War Doctrine to defend India against a formidable adversary China , which has transformed its Armed forces into a modern and an integrated fighting machine with multiple spectrums , including Cyber, Space, electromagnetic and Laser guns etc. The Indian War doctrine has at worst been, Pakistan Centric and at best it has been preparing dual function units for a two Front scenario to fight Pakistan and China . These analysts conclude that , in any near future confrontation with China , Indian Army is doomed to lose at the hands of Chinese Army for lack of sound War Doctrine as well as the matching array of modern weapons the Chinese Army now possesses.

It appears that India has walked out of the ring with a bloody nose in Ladakh with substantial, Political , Strategic and Military consequences

So pathetic is Indian war preparation that, within a few days of the Galwan confrontation ,Indian Defence Minister had to rush to Moscow where he camped for a week to get spares and war Planes to meet the critical needs of Indian Air force and Army.

The visit by Indian PM Modi to Ladakh and a photo opportunity with ‘war Wounded “soldiers sitting upright on their hospital beds smacked of a photo opportunity for domestic public consumption ,rather than a show of strength.

It appears that India has walked out of the ring with a bloody nose in Ladakh with substantial, Political , Strategic and Military consequences. Only time will tell if it is for good, or India is bidding for time to reenter the war arena and fight at another time.

The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam