Daily Times

The threat of a conflict with India has never been as real as it is now, which made the prime minister’s meeting with senior military and intelligence aides on Friday that much more important. There can be no denying that the regional security situation is deteriorating very fast because of New Delhi’s policies and actions, which have harmed its relations with almost all of its immediate neighbours. And if experience has proved one thing it is that the Indian government, especially under PM Modi, always picks some sort of a fight with Pakistan whenever its chips are down at home. And now, with Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and especially China and Pakistan pretty much fed up with its antics, the possibility of Delhi trying some sort of misadventure with Pakistan, because it would turn everybody’s attention away from all the trouble at home and make the extremist Hindutva community love Modi even more, has never been more real.

The tanking economy also adds to his problems. For years Modi sold his case to the Indian people as the architect of the country’s new, vibrant economy. And, indeed, the world’s biggest investment banks and hedge funds – which means the people who handle Big Money – were so impressed that they made an unprecedented $45-50 billion bet on the country. But that bet was also unwinding for the last year or so, which means that all those who had believed in so-called India Inc. because of the promises that Modi made on his way to Delhi, were beginning to turn away. And let’s not forget that all this happened before the pandemic stood the economy on its head. The coronavirus only made things much worse, depriving the Modi administration of yet more political air and making it even more desperate.

That is why Pakistan is taking recent developments so seriously. As Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi recently told his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, India’s posture is becoming increasingly belligerent. And all these things, especially the embarrassment at the hands of China in the Laddakh region, and the inability to contain the situation in Occupied Kashmir, explain why Delhi might really be looking to provoke Pakistan into a conflict. Its decision to ask Pakistan to cut its diplomatic staff in India by half recently, and increased violations of the Line of Control (LoC), also point in this direction. Yet any such step is unlikely to bring any relief to the BJP. Quite to the contrary, it could well be the last nail in its coffin because, as the PM office announced after the security review, the country stands ready to face all sorts of threats effectively. *