Daily Times

Mr Zhou Enlai, the deputy to Chinese leader Mao Zedong , coined the term ” Fight –Fight —Talk –Talk ” as a strategy in negotiations , with Chiang kai shek , the head of Nationalist Party Kuomintang . The strategy was meant to buy time , deterring aggressive action by the enemy and then when the time was ripe , going for all out military action. The guerrilla war was finally won by Communist Party under its charismatic leader Mao , who established the communist Peoples’ Republic of china in Beijing and Mr Chiang fled to Taiwan .

The US and Taliban negotiations which have been going on for over two years in Qatar , in addition to many back channel talks in different capitals including Islamabad. However the violence in Afghanistan claimed by the Taliban has continued against US forces as well as Afghan Security Forces, indicating that the Taliban might have also adopted a similar strategy of talk, talk ,fight,fight against the Us and the Afghan Government in Kabul.

However, the reports appearing in the international media about possible Russian involvement in the recent violence in Afghanistan especially against US troops rang alarm bells in the security and Intelligence agencies of the US, since the media reports suggested that Russia might have paid bounties to Taliban for killing US troops in Afghanistan. Despite compelling evidence President Trump , who has been” soft “on Russia dismissed the intelligence reports as not ” credible ” and “possibly another fabricated Russia hoax by the Fake News ” . Mr Trump is reported to have claimed that neither he nor Vice President Mike Pence was ever told about this critical intelligence before it was first reported in the New York Times. Ms Susen E. Rice, a former National Security advisor writing in a New York Times, finds it exceedingly difficult to believe that no one told Mr Trump about this intelligence , which was contained in the President’s daily briefing which is provided to all top level National Security Officials . Ms Susen further asserts that even if the President did not read the report , other senior advisors including , Mr Richard Grenell , who stepped down in May as as Acting Director of National Intelligence and Secretary of Defence Mark Esper among others could have read the report and informed the Commander Inchief ie the President , about this ” life and death ” report and if they did not ” then they are not worthy of Service ” she added . The white House officials were quoted as saying that ” It would be improper to inform the President of such information until it is verified and options for the US response had been prepared , however , the administration reportedly informed the British Government and that the National Security Council convened an interagency meeting in March to discuss the intelligence and its implications.

The Russians have been conveying the impression that their interactions with various Afghan stakeholders including Taliban was to provide political support to the peaceful withdrawal of the US as announced by President Trump

Historically, Russia has an abiding strategic interest in Afghanistan, as a gateway to South and Southwest Asia and the Middle East. It was this Russian strategic consideration which led it to embark upon a disastrous Afghan adventure in December 1979 under the pretext of upholding Soviet – Afghan Friendship Treaty of 1978. The erstwhile Soviet Union poured in Billions of Dollars and had 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, against the rag tag Mujahadeen the local fighters who funded ,trained and armed by Us and western countries supported by China ,Pakistan, Saudi Arabia , Egypt and several other Muslim Countries. Mujahedeen due to their superior fighting skills, generous international support , Knowledge of the terrain and the people , prevailed and Soviet Union was forced to with draw under a fig leaf Geneva Peace Accord , with over 15000 casualties, loss of prestige as a superpower apart from Billions of Dollars spent on the war efforts from 1979 to 1989 . The Afghan defeat is ascribed as one the major reasons behind Soviet disintegration.

The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 as reprisal to 9/11 events and uprooted the Taliban regime who were blamed for harbouring Osama Bin Laden who was suspected of being behind the September attacks on twin towers. and had refused to hand him over to the US . The US after wasting about a Trillion Dollars , thousands of war casualties decided to withdraw from Afghanistan. The Taliban have gained control of 50% of Afghan territory and have regained legitimacy as stakeholders in the future political dispensation in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.

The resurgent Russia under the charismatic leader Putin who has reasserted Russia’s status as a global military power, has been on the “Russian Roulette in Afghanistan “, and engaging all actors in Afghanistan, Taliban, Kabul Government and its longtime allies The Northern and Southern alliances of warlords. A public statement with regard to Russian -Taliban contacts was made in early 2016, when Russian Special envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kalulov stated that “Taliban interests and objectives coincide with ours”. The Russians have been conveying the impression that their interactions with various Afghan stakeholders including Taliban was to provide political support to the peaceful withdrawal of the US as announced by President Trump. However, the intelligence reports leaked to the international media reflected the darker side of this “interaction “. Russia under the dynamic leadership of Putin after securing strategic military victories in the Balkans and the Middle East does not want to be left out in the” New Great Game “as a follow up of the United States’ Strategic “Pivot ” from “Asia Pacific ” to “Indo -Pacific “. Afghanistan will remain Strategically salient for Global Powers competing for Political, Military and economic interests in South Asia, West Asia and beyond .

The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam