Daily Times

Most subtle, far reaching and highly decibel language is the language of silence. Who can speak this, where it is spoken and how? Only geography, both political and physical is the entity which speaks in the silence. This is beyond the hearing range of humans, the lowly captives at a range of 20 Hz to 20000 Hz. As per Tim Marshall therefore all the great powers are the prisoners of their geography. When geography speaks, we listen. It has again spoken in the higher climes of Himalayas. Present standoff between India and china is not a scene from Amir Khan’s movie in which a kabbadi feud is played with a sheer sense of, you touch and I go. It is a reality out of cartographic surrealism. Situation on ground is tense, there are Chinese armour brigades and motorized infantry divisions in ladakh sector at LAC, at Mac- Mohan-line, Chinese have placed four motorized infantry divisions with sufficient armour, artillery and the elements of rocket force. The four places where Chinese army relocated itself inwardly (Indian side) at LAC are being consolidated. India on the other hand is beating the trumpet of the two front conundrums. It is building up in terms of troops, weapons, aircrafts and logistics. The effort is planned along the 17 mountain and the corps of northern and eastern commands. China has just recently placed General Xu Qiling as its western theater commander, a man known for his dash and fling. How both the players, India and China came to this pass, it all started with the Sino-phobia and the primordial need of USA to have or create a enemy all the times so that the internal cohesion is assured in its own way. Graham Allison book, ‘destined for war; can America and China escape the Thucydides trap’ is so famous in the policy circles of America that everyone thinks that USA is Sparta and China is Athens. So rising power, china is challenging the ruling power. This thesis of a Harvard professor is not biblical and the same applied history which Professor Graham Allison teaches in the book defies the concept which the book carries.

The mantra of survival of any civilization is that it respects all the other civilizations. That was precisely the idea when president Xi Jinping offered Modi to make a triangle of prosperity with joining Pakistan and China as a civilization power

Professor Donald Kagan of Yale had already proved that this thesis of rising power fighting a ruling power is wrong; it has never happened in the military history of both, world war -1 and world war- 2. Russia, Japan and Germany were all rising powers in their own intent but never were trapped in the Thucydides maze of events; their dragging them into war had different reasons. Even in Peloponnesian wars the Sparta never wanted to fight the Athens, they had no mutual frictions, it was the Corinth who had a dispute with Athens, Corinth was an ally to Sparta and Sparta to win over the ally again started the war. It was a diplomatic miscalculation and strategic blunder not the Thucydides trap which resulted into war. The same situation is developing in Himalayas, the modern day Sparta, USA is homing on the Athens, China to assure the Corinth, India that all will be ok and settled soon. China is perhaps happy in the diplomatic jargon with Mr Trump, why, because USA all along the globe is losing allies, Sparta losing its Corinth. It is not Thucydides trap which is damaging the status of USA, it is the kindleberger trap which is the reason of diminishing power of the USA. In 1930s Charles kindleberger, the architect of Marshall plan said that a super power unable to provide global public good, will not be able to wield actual power amongst the states. Look at the China; it is avoiding the kindleberger trap by being at the pinnacle of world supply chain on one hand and also providing public good to its friends, allies and regional countries. The belt and road initiative is the manifestation of avoiding the trap by the rising power. In Himalayas, even the cliché of China bound to rebound is not true. The situation is the direct result of India’s doings. Naming the Asia pacific ocean as indo-pacific, joining quadrilateral security (QUAD) against China, changing the status of Kashmir and Ladakh in august-2019, refusing to join Pak-India-China triangle of cooperation, shenanigans at WHO, taking sides on the issues of Taiwan and hong kong, trying to damage the progress and concept of CPEC and the misinterpretation of the Tibetan question through direct support to the renegades are the few reasons which has stoked the sleeping dragon into action. Tibetan plateau is very important to all the strategic calculations of Chinese as an emerging power. It is called as the water tower of china. All the rivers of eight countries including China emanates from this plateau, the Chinese province of Xinjiang (where Tibetan plateau is situated) is the pivot of territorial China for two reasons, one this province has borders with eight emerging economies of the world and is also the jumping board of belt and road initiative and CPEC. Western scholars, China watchers and the academicians of Ivy League can fairly review their views basing on the fact that china is not a country, it is a civilization. The mantra of survival of any civilization is that it respects all the other civilizations. That was precisely the idea when president Xi Jinping offered Mr Modi to make a triangle of prosperity with joining Pakistan and China as a civilization power (even Mr Xi’s only daughter studied four years in Harvard, where she earned respect as a well composed and hard working student). India on the other hand is following the path of fascist nationalism. The other thing which world does not understand about Chinese civilization is their concept of human rights, for Chinese human right is not individual construct it is a collective one. Coming days hold an interesting future for the region. There seems to be lack of sanity at the south block and the north block at Delhi, not due to the lack of competence rather due to the paralysis through analysis under the rising shadows of Thucydides trap. In case of any war, the north and the south block of Delhi secretariat will have to battle it out. As for the Pakistani strategic thinkers and academicians, our institutions need to build a culture of genuine inquiry, less the Moore’s law will leave no leaf to turn and no Diem to roll. For Pakistan the option is to watch, see and react as per own strategic calculus. Thinking in civilization terms, the concentrating on the economy and the resources of the state is the sin-qua-non for Pakistan to move on the right trajectory in the most interesting of times.

The writer is a freelance contributor on security related issues. He is also a Ph.D Scholar who can be reached at sindhulatif@gmail.com Twitter: @Abid_Latif55