Daily Times

India China conflict over strategic heights in Galwan Valley of disputed Ladakh, didn’t become an all-out war just because both countries have worked too hard to get where they in stature.

So, what is this fuss about the Daulat Beg Oldi army camp to Karakorum pass road, high up in North West of India, in disputed territory, and supposed Galwan Valley incursion, by China?

Galwan valley flashpoint courtesy NYT

What triggered the conflict

China was repeatedly badgered by Pakistan about Kashmir and by Nepal about Lipulekh pass and India’s hegemonic motives in the North, but China looked the other way. India repeatedly scuffled with Chinese troops over the 3880 Kilometers Line of Actual Control, to secure passes and heights, but China let it slide. India landed wide bodied aircraft on it’s Daulat Beg Oldi post near Karakorum pass into Pakistani Gilgit Baltistan and subsequently to CPEC corridor road, and China shifted a little its seat. Finally, Mr. Modi’s crazy lieutenant, Amit Shah uttering “(Gilgit Baltistan) POK is included when I talk of J&K” after revoked article 370 constitutional protection of Kashmir’s independence, was the last straw.

How did the conflict unfold?

Chinese troops moved in overnight into a valley  and commanding heights that leads to the confluence of Shyok and Galwan rivers, from where the new road runs up to the Karakorum Pass. Indians were so immersed in their self-aggrandizements and Bollywood wonder land that they were blindsided, by the cold start maneuver by the Chinese. Indian and Chinese generals agreed to deescalate, but then India ground troops moved up another commanding height and was beaten back by Chinese, some falling down in to the ravine below; 40 soldiers died on the Indian side. The Chinese have out maneuvered Indians period!

‘the best war is the one that you win without fighting’ Sun Tzu.

Daulat Beg oldi is close to Karakorum pass and the arrow shows Chinese posts overlooking the India road leading to it.

Galwan flash point courtesy Reuters, to be viewed upside down

What Triggered the Conflict this time?

Daulat Beg Oldi, a not so apt name for an Indian base and runway on occupied land, was stolen from a 16^th century noble man and traveller who died at 16600 ft on the Karakorum Pass 17 km away. This pass overlooks Tibet Xinjiang road and also close to Skardu CPEC link and can be easy jumped across by India troops using the recently extended the runway and increased troop numbers.

What is the Ladakh Conflict about?

So, it was all about protecting Chinese investments and their break out CPEC route to the world that Pakistan has granted them. Now if India sends troops over the Karakorum Pass, using their Daulat Beg Oldi military base, which India has threatened to, into Skardu to interdict the CPEC route, China will cut off this Junction road supply line. So simple, CPEC secure for now.

Not only that, Chinese Foreign office has made it clear that the entire Galwan Valley is there’s. This means they would probably not be moving back.

In the melee, several Indian and supposedly Chines soldiers were killed and Pakistanis are ecstatic that at least some country in the world had the courage to call a jack a*s a jacka*s.

I thought Pakistan was the only whistle blower left in the World, it’s good to know other’s speak out too when their vital interests get threatened.

What is happening now?

Well, India and China will sit together and decide to move back troops from their aggressive posture around the DBO-Karakorum interdiction point at Galvan valley heights, but I doubt Chinese will come down from the commanding heights.

Mr. Modi has already said Chinese troops never came into Indian territory— LOLs to that! Now that’s what real national power is, in China’s case.

The Chinese have indicated clearly throughout their party mouthpiece the Global Times that it’s India’s servile attitude towards USA’s initiative to encircle China that has led to the current mess. India’s recent join the Quad alliance of USA’s toady Australia, and bonded slave Japan was not viewed well in China. USA properly rewarded India by having it elected unopposed as a non-permanent member of UNSC and also executive body of World Health Organization. India immediately called for initiation of inquiry into Covid-19 origins inside China. India was running with the foxes and hunting with the hound, but Mr. Modi’s recklessness in the COVID situation and bluster against Pakistani Kashmir, was too much for Chinese nationalists.

USA is cheering on Indian racist BJP leaders to be tough on China. India has its own axe to grind in being tough on Muslim extremism by conducting extrajudicial killings in Kashmir and including terrorism in the Quad’s agenda. Not recognizing that Islamic militancy is an outcome of political coercion and injustice.  Then Alice wells gave a standing ovation to India calling Chinese a “threat” on 20 May 2020.

Where does that leave India?

Indian BJP leaders, being racist themselves, cannot break out of the worship white man syndrome. They have been like that for ages. When the colonial British were egging on Hindu marhattas against the Nizam of Hyderabad or sending Sikh satrap Ranjit Singh to fight their battles in Pashtun land and Kashmir, the same people slavishly obliged. This mindset cannot understand the meaning of peaceful coexistence, free from injustice and interference. God works in mysterious ways and this is exactly how racist regimes shoot themselves in their foot.

India is being encircled by an arc of border conflicts, with very unhappy neighbors’.

USA will sell more arms to India, Indian economy of $3 trillion, already tottering from poor social spending, and heavily dependent on USA’s largess on imports to western countries and immigration, will slide further down in the race to the top. China is already a $14 trillion economy. Someone tell the Indians, wars are fought by economic institutions, not by armies.

India needs to forget about interdicting CPEC for at least a decade till they get to a 10 trillion economy, which USA is trying very hard to, but is hamstrung by cultural stupidity in the India elite. Common sense says you cannot become the village chief if you steal land from your estranged neighbor.

India has placed all its eggs in USA’s basket thinking the white knight will save them from barbarians. Has USA ever made Mexico its ally, and that country has always been a neighbor.

What will happen now?

India might still try to create a diversion from their ignominious defeat by the Chinese by attacking the weaker guy, Pakistan, their favorite whipping boy. They might take the vulnerable land till the Neelum valley river, as Indian troops are already amassed there. That would bring them a step closer to CPEC, and they could curry Western favor as a result, to keep the military, diplomatic, economic and visa favors coming in.

A receding super power like USA will open up its war chest to support this prop of theirs, but unfortunately, Indian reputation in the dog fight with Pakistan and the Ladakh capitulation, has suffered immense damage. As always, India has shown itself as a beehive of worker bees, good for amassing honey but no good for fighting a more powerful bee colony.

What will China do now?

China will try to get back to business as usual as early as possible, because they are super pragmatic and realistic. China will definitely think twice before voting against Pakistani militant proxies that are directed towards India, like Masood Azhar, that are vital for strategic defense. Even India still funds and trains militants in Baluchistan to disrupt CPEC projects; China might ask for assurances that that would not be disruption in CPEC anymore. China will link up Nepal through Arunachal Pradesh to CPEC in Pakistan, so that they can find alternate source of imports in case India blockades them like in 2015. China will breathe down India’s neck in Siliguri Corridor till the time pragmatic politicians arrive in India that can balance USA and Chinese interests — the cornerstone of India’s progress till date.

What will India do now?

Mr. Modi’s BJP will launch an attack against Muslims to keep their extremist vote bank intact and still curry favor from Western leaders, by imitating western values, which are not their own.

The US-India nuclear deal has opened up opportunities for India, that they could never have imagined, and India aims to max out this credit card.

India is feeling the heat from its northern border with countries that were being bullied to submission like Nepal, Bangladesh and somewhat Bhutan are jumping fence to China’s camp. That says a lot about who the new sheriff in town is.

What China is telling India is that both the sheriffs can enjoy the fruits of their status together, but India right now is having none of that. Mr. Modi wants to be the only sheriff in town with borrowed guns, shoes and bullets and a tattered holster belt.

What’s in it for Pakistan?

Pakistan’s fear of Indian incursion through Karakorum pass and Skardu is over for the time being, but the threat to Azad Jammu and Kashmir especially Muzaffarabad up to Neelum River remains. Pakistan needs to develop vital interests for China in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, for the Giant Dragon to even notice, the killings being carried out there.

Pakistan gets more time to get its house in order, strengthen institutions, especially the economy, and build a working relation with India, till the time India inevitably rises like hanuman again.  When that day comes, and it eventually will, China would not be interested to stop them.

India still has a road safe a secure to reach Siachen glacier, so that’s no good for Pakistan.

Pakistan gets nothing tangible from this conflict except the satisfaction of India getting a good as* whopping. That’s enough for many, but nothing tangible.

Pakistan needs to learn from China and the immense benefits of being a larger country economic and land wise. National power should be the catch world, if this country is to survive the political storms coming its way coursing an independent path.

Pakistan needs to convince USA that their interests would be better served if Pakistan is made the pivot state instead of India. An increase land mass, by forming dominions with Kashmir and maybe Afghanistan would give USA the influence that they so crave in this part of the world.

Pakistan should learn from China and take back the heights it lost in 1971, near Turtuk-Thoise close to Galwan valley, that overlook Indian roads to Siachen Glacier, also illegally occupied by India.

Pakistan needs to learn to balance world power interests. Jumping into one camp is never a great idea. 70 years in USA’ lap didn’t get us Kashmir. Try being nonaligned for a change and focus on national institution and society’ building.

Conclusion

Gulab Singh Dogra and Mr. Narendra Modi followed following the same line, serve the white master, and will probably get lots of people killed for them. This is plain madness, but that’s how fascist politicians are. Pakistan has bought at least 10 years of peace from this conflict. Use it wisely and build national power, there may be no second chance.