Daily Times

Twenty first century is turning out to be an era of regional interdependence and connectivity. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by China is unfolding infinite vistas of opportunity and growth across the continents. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with investment of over US$ 60 billion is a flagship project of BRI extending multi-faceted regional integration. CPEC is a landmark initiative in Sino-Pak relations. Though open to diverse stakeholders, CPEC is all the more important to Central Asian Republics (CARs) of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Central Asia is rich in natural resources like petrol, natural gas, coal and iron and commodities but the actualization of this economic potential is limited by its landlockedness. For a desirable volume of international trade, access to sea routes is essential. Here comes the CPEC as a gateway to Central Asia with its Gwadar port in the Balochistan province of Pakistan. For Central Asian countries, marine trade with South Asia, Middle East and Africa through the warm waters of Gwadar port would be feasible. Gwadar is the shortest route to sea that provides a strategic opportunity for CARs to transport their goods more easily and gain competitiveness in regional and global markets.

Since the emergence of new republics after the dismantling of the USSR, Chinese investment in Central Asia has grown from $1 billion to $50 billion in various BRI projects of roads, railways, bridges, and telecommunication systems. Potential economic engagement of China includes a gas trade deal of 55 billion cubic meters per year with Turkmenistan and China-Kazakhstan Oil Pipeline that carries 11 million tons of oil daily. Western Chinese province of Xinjiang borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and 75% China-Central Asia trade pass through Xinjiang. Similarly, Pakistan is also involved in projects like CASA-1000 for hydro-electricity and TAP for gas supply to meet its energy requirements from Central Asia. So all these Central Asian countries can be seen as potential partners for Pakistan and China, with immense possibilities for regional cooperation and common economic benefits.

Central Asia is rich in natural resources like petrol, natural gas, coal and iron and commodities but the actualization of this economic potential is limited by its landlockedness

In this backdrop, CPEC serves as a strategic opportunity for CARs to gain access and competitiveness in the regional markets of South Asia, Middle East and Africa. All Central Asian states too intend to join CPEC for close regional integration. Now, let us analyze three possible routes linking Central Asia to Gwadar port of Pakistan in Arabian Sea:

I- Khorgos-Gowadar Axis: Gwadar port links overland to Kashgar in Xinjiang that borders Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Chinese transport from Kashgar to Gwadar is already underway. Khorgos having an area of 450 hectare is situated in Kazakhstan as a special economic zone. It has a railway track changing facility also due to gauge difference between China and Kazakhstan to facilitate rail cargo between China and Europe. Having insight of future trade and commerce, certain Pakistani companies have already registered with Khorgos Dryport. Khorgos too is linked with Kashgar. Hence, Central Asian countries can optimize Khorgos-Gwadar Axis carry out trade with South Asia, Middle East, Africa and Pacific region through Gwadar port.

II-Quadrilateral Traffic and Transit Agreement (QTTA): It is an agreement between Pakistan, China, Kazakhstan and Kazakhstan for transit traffic and trade relating to CPEC aimed at providing access to Gwadar port. Uzbekistan has just recently approached Pakistan to join QTTA. Due to security issues of Afghanistan, the QTTA presents an alternative gateway for Central Asia to Gowardar port by completely circumnavigating Afghanistan. It would link Central Asia to China’s Xinjiang region that is connected with Karakoram Highway towards sea port of Gwadar.

III- Transit and Trade through Afghanistan: Afghanistan, in fact, provides the shortest transit from Central Asia to Gwadar. But continuous war and instability in Afghanistan has inhibited the real development of regional connectivity and economic integration between Central Asia and South Asia. Now, after the US-Taliban Peace Accords on withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan, the prospects of enduring peace have increased. Last week, activity under Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement has resumed, as first bulk-cargo the ship “MV Manet” carrying wheat and urea of Afghan transit has reached Gwadar. This would stimulate volume of transit and trade through Afghanistan.

CPEC is not going to transform the fate of two countries, but also the entire region, as it opens a gateway to the Indian Occasion through Gwadar port. Central Asian States have a wonderful opportunity to realize their dreams of regional connectivity, economic diversification and sustainable growth by conducting marine trade through the warm waters of Gwadar port. Regional peace and stability would be a natural outcome of these developments of commerce and trade.

The writer is Country Manager of a Pakistani bank in Kazakhstan, with interest in Central Asian studies. He can be reached out at rafeeq_kz @yahoo.com