Daily Times

India-China military standoff must ring the alarm bells for the strategic thinkers in both the countries and Pakistan that lingering disputes are bound to bounce back unless serious efforts are made to address them and leave no room for miscalculation which may prove costly. Right now, its fisticuffs or baton charges against each other in Galwan valley or Pangong Lake in Ladakh, but massive deployment of troops on both sides is indicative of grave situation. It is the most serious crisis in India-China relations since a stand-off over Doklam, a site at the confluence of India, China and Bhutan, in 2017.

Media reports are scant in details due to restricted movement in the region and inhospitable terrain with below freezing temperatures. Whatever information is available in the media through leaks or commercial satellite imagery speaks of a serious development. At the governmental level, both sides have issued calculated and cautious statements which reflect the sensitivities involved in the matter and in accordance with understanding between them to conform to the diplomatic norms which have worked well so far and not a bullet has been fired since 1975.

Indian External Affairs Ministry Spokesman in his statement said that it was the “Chinese side that has recently undertaken activity hindering India’s normal patrolling patterns.” The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian reportedly said that the border situation was “generally stable and controllable”, adding that the two sides were communicating through both their front-line military units and their respective embassies to “properly resolve relevant issues through dialogue and consultation.” He, however, urged India to “refrain from taking any unilateral actions that may complicate the situation.”

According to the weekly magazine Economist, the military standoff is reported at three areas: “the confluence of the Galwan and Shyok rivers near the Daulat Beg town; the Hot Springs area; and the northern bank of Pangong lake”. India has a Brigade level presence in Daulat Beg. Reportedly, China has deployed 5000 troops on the Western Ridges of the Galwan Valley, which dominates the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulet Road, the only line of communication to the Indian troops. Some Indian analysts apprehend that a Chinese advance into eastern Ladakh would be disastrous for Indian defense, possibly threatening India’s grip on the Siachen glacier.

On 27th of May, President Trump offered to mediate in what he described as a “now raging border dispute”. But Indian External Affairs Ministry has maintained a stoic silence over the offer. One reason could be that it would set the precedence for mediation on the Kashmir dispute which President Trump offered last year but instantly rejected by India.

For Pakistan, India-China confrontation has grave consequences rooted in the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan is a party to the dispute and Ladakh is an integral part of it whose final status is yet to be decided in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions, Indian action of abrogating Article 370 and 35-A notwithstanding. Indian road construction activities in the Daulat Beg Area of Ladakh, which is just 8-km from Karakoram Pass should be a source of concern for Pakistan. India’s brigade level deployment in the area has reinforced the Chinese suspicions about the Indian designs, especially when China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through the Karakoram Highway (KKH). Similarly, Indian opposition to the Chinese financed Diamer Bhasha dam further adds tensions in an already charged environment.

Indian activities aimed at strengthening its defenses along the disputed territory in Ladakh region and China’s preemptive response should have a sobering impact on both sides

The competition over great power status may have its merits in the geo-strategic terms. However, in the face of unresolved disputes among states slight miscalculation by either side can suck the parties into a conflict that may have serious consequences in the entire region. For instance, when it comes to the Aksai Chin Region where the current tensions are running high, it becomes a tri-lateral tiff in which China and Pakistan have common causes against the Indian occupation. Indian accusation that Pakistan had ceded Aksai Chin to China is a sheer misrepresentation of facts. In fact, it was China which, after defeating the Indians in 1962, had entered into border settlement agreement with Pakistan in 1963 and ceded 750 Square kilometers of Aksai Chin to Pakistan due to its geographical salience which was used by the people on the Pakistani side for grazing purposes.

While China and India have signed an agreement in 1993 on the “Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), they have failed to settle their dispute despite more than 20 rounds of talks along with multiple meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the past few months, India’s belligerent posture particularly on COVID-19 in which it has sided with President Trump’s accusations that China has been responsible for the pandemic has polluted the political environment between the two countries. There are multiple factors which have directly or indirectly contributed to vitiating the atmosphere.

First, Beijing’s support for Pakistan on the Kashmir creates a two-front situation for India which is a major cause of concern for India. Since August 5, 2019, when Indian abrogated Article 370 and 35-A of the Indian constitution allowing Special status to the Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, China has twice raised the matter in the UN Security Council much to the chagrin of India. Moreover, China has taken strong exception to new Indian maps in which Ladakh has been shown as Indian territory.

Second, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has emerged as the backbone of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) linking over 70 countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. The project’s geo-economic and geo-political importance is not lost on the competitors in the game to which India is serving as a “man in the boiler room”. Naturally, CPEC would be a game-changer for Pakistan and make it economically strong, a scenario least suited to the Indian strategic thinkers for obvious reasons.

Third, Indian ambitions to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and its attempts to gain entry into the exclusive Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) have been hampered by China on merit. First, to become a permanent member, India needs to fulfill its obligations under the UN Charter including holding of a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir in accordance with the UN Security council resolutions, and second, India cannot be granted entry into the NSG unless Pakistan is also made a member. A sauce for the goose is a sauce for the gander.

Finally and added to the above irritants is the Indo-Pacific alliance with the sole purpose of blocking China–the quad comprising US, India, Japan and Australia is steering the anti-China alliance. As a neighbour, India’s joining of the Indo-Pacific has agitated China, which considers the alliance a blatant attempt by the US to undermine China’s genuine interests in the region. Therefore, Indian activities aimed at strengthening its defenses along the disputed territory in Ladakh region and China’s preemptive response should have a sobering impact on both sides. However, the ongoing tensions must be addressed in a serious manner. Ideally, a dialogue between Pakistan, India and China can address thorny issues bedeviling their relations and create the necessary grounds for peace and progress in the entire region.

Write is a former ambassador and Senior Research Fellow at IPRI