Daily Times

The planned annexation of parts of West Bank by Israel has moved the clash from the fringe to the centre of the Middle East conflict. The apparent noninvolvement of the US, besides other relevant international key players, has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to assert his confidence that annexation will happen within a few months, or before the American presidential election. Let it be known and crystal-clear that the unilateral annexation of the West Bank or parts of it by Israel will be catastrophic for any form of the peace process in the Middle East. However, the cold and lacklustre lying-back response until now by the Islamic World is absolutely unacceptable. The government of Pakistan and the overenthusiastic religious pressure groups seem to have steamed out and looked shocked. The Saudis and Egyptians have to come on the forefront to lead the Islamic world to avoid the embarrassment of “Sold out Palestinian Blood.”

Let us pray it is false.

The West Bank was the name given to the territory that was captured by Jordan in the aftermath of the 1948 Arab-Israel War. It is a landlocked territory near the Mediterranean coast of Western Asia. The West Bank, including East Jerusalem, has a land area of 5,640 km plus a water area of 220 km, consisting of the northwest quarter of Dead Sea. It has an estimated population of three million Palestinians, 400,000 Israeli settlers, and another 200,000 Israeli settlers in East Jerusalem. The international community, as a whole, considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, illegal under international law though Israel disputes this. The West Bank and Gaza Strip had been governed by Jordan and Egypt respectively before Israel occupied these territories in the Six Days War of 1967. Thereafter, the term “Palestinian Territories” has been used for many years. More recently, the official terminology of the UN’s “Occupied Palestinian Territory” (OPT) is used.

Israel will not be hugged by the Arab world and the international community

There was a time when peace appeared possible both to Israelis and Americans. In 1993, following the Oslo Accords, parts of the Israeli territories politically came under the jurisdiction of the Palestinian National Authority. The occupied West Bank was divided into three areas – A, B and C – as part of the Oslo Accords, signed by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and Israel in 1993 and 1995: Area A, under complete Palestinian civil and military control; Area B, under Palestinian civil control but Israeli military control; and Area C, under complete Israeli civil and military control. The agreements led to the establishment of an interim Palestinian government–the Palestinian Authority (PA), which was granted limited powers of governance in Areas A and B. The Oslo Accords were also meant to kick-start future peace talks with a two-state solution as the desired objective of negotiations brokered by the US.

Later, the failure of Camp David 2 peace talk (Clinton -Arafat- Barak) in July 2000 led to the Second Intifada, also known as Al-Aqsa Intifada, a period of intensified Israeli-Palestinian violent uprising. There were four principal obstacles to the agreement in Camp David 2: territory; Jerusalem and the Temple Mount; refugees’ right of return; Israeli security concerns.

Subsequently, Global War on Terror and the death of Yasser Arafat in November 2004 altered the political environment in the Middle East, including settings for the so-called Middle East Peace Process. On May 14, 2018, the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem to coincide with the 70th anniversary of the Israeli Declaration of Independence further added insult to Palestinians’ injury. The US does not recognise the State of Palestine and, therefore, officially maintains no diplomatic exchanges or consular services with Palestine. Palestine has no diplomatic representation in the US since the closure of the Embassy in October 2018.

Israel’s impunity will not last forever. Let me quote the UN Security Council Resolution 2334 of December 2016 passed in a 14-0 vote by members of the UN Security Council. Four members with veto power, China, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom, voted for the resolution, but the US abstained. “Reaffirming the obligation of Israel, the occupying Power, to abide scrupulously by its legal obligations and responsibilities under the Fourth Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, of 12 August 1949. Condemning all measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, including, inter alia, the construction and expansion of settlements, transfer of Israeli settlers, confiscation of land, demolition of homes and displacement of Palestinian civilians, in violation of international humanitarian law and relevant resolutions. Reaffirms that the establishment by Israel of settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, has no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-State solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace. The resolution calls on the nations of the world to distinguish between the State of Israel and the occupied territories”.

For those who have knowledge of the Palestinian as a nation, the writing is on the wall. Israel will not be hugged by the Arab world and the international community. The annexation of West Bank will not go down passively. It will definitely lead to unified Palestinian violence of the Second Intifada type of the year 2000; the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and forcing Israel with the responsibility of governing an antagonistic population of millions of Palestinians; the collapse of the peace treaty with Jordan; the final end of Israel as a democracy.

The EU has never recognised the annexations of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, and it is inconceivable that it will recognise the annexation of the West Bank settlements. Because of its enormous financial investment in the institutions for a future Palestinian state, the EU will be reluctant to pronounce the death of the two-state solution, especially before the Palestinian Authority officially does so. If the prospect of a two-state solution disappears or no longer appears achievable, the EU and other donors would need to fundamentally review their support. That moment will arrive on the day after full annexation.

Contrarily, the EU’s relationships with the Palestinians are perhaps even more complicated currently, than those with Israel. The arising environments in European Union (EU) will not lead to any harsher punitive actions against Israel in the immediate aftermath because there is no consensus as well as little appetite at the moment to confront either Israel or the Trump administration. Over the long run, however, it is difficult to see Israel becoming more deeply integrated into the EU after a full annexation.

The growing threat from Iran in the recent years forced the Israeli government to expand ties with the Arab states, especially those bordering the Persian Gulf. This working relationship has been premised on the Arab governments; de-emphasising the Palestinian issue. Nothing is more certain to make that issue come roaring back to life than the provocation of a unilateral Israeli annexation. The years of hard work led by Mr Netanyahu himself could quickly blow up.

It is not Netanyahu’s plan of the annexation of West Bank that is shocking but Washington’s surprise reaction to it. Annexation would most likely lead to Palestinian fury that could well destabilise Jordan, the West Bank and Gaza. Jordan’s Palestinian population has quieted down from the past revolutionary fervour, but the annexation could incite it again and gratuitously challenge the monarchy. Residents of the West Bank could start a new intifada, uprising costing Israeli lives. Emboldened, Gaza’s Hamas rulers might start a new round of war. The conflict will go on with impetus and the whole Middle East may continue to be destabilised. Nevertheless, the US’s further involvement and Europe’s obsession with the “Middle East Peace Process” will continue. Accordingly, not only the Islamic World but friends of Israel must loudly and clearly say “No” to West Bank annexation.

The writer is a retired Pakistan Army Officer