Daily Times

Good of the prime minister to try and do his bit to diffuse the fires engulfing the Ummah, more precisely trying to narrow the widening cleavage between one-time GCC sweethearts Saudi Arabia and the tiny kingdom of Qatar. But anybody even remotely familiar with the Gulf’s goings ons would have told him, before he took off, that he would just waste his time trying to make friends out of disgruntled Gulf rulers. Most likely his associates and advisers counted on his own not-so-negligible experience of the Gulf countries, especially KSA and Qatar. Anyhow that’s all in the past. The PM went — taking the army chief and the usual kitchen cabinet along — tried, and came back empty handed, just as the doubters had predicted.

Incidentally this was not the first time Nawaz Sharif hopped onto his official plane and headed to the Gulf to put out some fires raging around the holy land. Way back in ’90, at the time of the first Gulf war (Operation Desert Storm), he tried to engineer a similar political handshake between the then rulers of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The reason, of course, was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, Saudi’s own pro-Kuwait position in the whole mess — not the least because of Saddam’s insulting remarks against the Saudi rulers — and the ruthless coalition assault on Baghdad that was due shortly. Needless to say, he failed that time too. While the Saudis met him and gently shoved aside his concerns, Saddam refused outright. ‘He’s stationed thousands of troops, in territory hostile to me, to invade my country, and he wants to talk peace with me’, Saddam simply said, also brushing aside Nawaz’s offer of mediation.

It’s not that the Arabs are not fond of mediation. Diplomacy is etched deep in their DNA since only Bedouins roamed the great desert. Much more than the warrior, unlike other cultures, it is the peace maker that holds the most exalted position in the traditional Arabian hierarchy. But they need the peacemaker to be credible. Nawaz simply does not understand that he just does not bring the right mix to the table. Yes, he’s the prime minister of Pakistan, and that gives him a unique foothold in the hierarchy of the Ummah, but personally he just does not command widespread respect.

Things were different in Musharraf’s time, of course. And that was not just because of his front-foot approach or personal cold-hearted reasoning. His biggest card was his credentials as army chief, and his ability to command legions of the fabled — within the Muslim world, at least — Pakistani army that gave him the ability, when he was president of Pakistan, to punch above his weight, not only at home but also in matters pertaining to the Ummah.

But those times are long gone. Pakistan just does not occupy the same position on the totem pole, especially after the rude snub to the Saudi request about the Yemen war not too long ago. If the refusal didn’t sting enough, the inability to wrap up the Yemen war is frustrating the Saudis even more. And out of that frustration, portions of the Saudi ruling family are now blaming Pakistan, partly, for the losses. Had the professional Pak army been part of the planning as well as on the ground, things would definitely have been different, wouldn’t they?

So much for the PM’s foreign excursions. As luck would have it, in trying to pour water on wider Muslim schism in the Middle East, the PM risked pouring fuel over the fires threatening to destroy his mandate in Islamabad. The JIT probing corruption in his family is nearing completion. His energies are better spent inside Pakistan where his party loyalists, sensing trouble owing to the Sharif family’s apparent inability to prove its accounts, are already threatening trouble.

So much for the PM’s foreign excursions. As luck would have it, in trying to pour water on wider Muslim schism in the Middle East, the PM risked pouring fuel over the fires threatening to destroy his mandate in Islamabad

Unfortunately Nawaz has never been a peacemaker at home. His politics has always been vindictive even if, when the odds are stacked against him, he has to go begging to PPP, etc, to save his skin. And, to make matters worse, he turns antagonistic immediately after the favour has been taken. Asif Zardari learnt this lesson the bitter way when, after literally saving the government in the infamous ’14 dharna, he found Nawaz quite unreachable as the so called Karachi Operation was shoved down the former’s throat.

Now, going into the election Nawaz — the peacemaker of the Ummah — has no friends in Pakistan except the usual Maulana this and Mullah that, etc. And one small band of Qataris might have flown all the way to take care of the JIT hearing, etc, but Nawaz will not be able to count on his rich friends in the desert to help him out with the corruption fallout or the election just around the corner.

On top of that, the equation with Riyadh is forever changed. It might not be our fault — it was parliament, after all, that said no to the Yemen war — but we will definitely suffer the fallout. And one of the biggest favours Saudi does us is granting cheap oil when the going gets tough due to exogenous factors. Oil might not be the prized commodity now that it used to be, but don’t count on things to be like that forever.

Chillingly for Nawaz, this entire episode has a particularly bitter personal downside as well. Should, worse come to worst, the JIT concur with the minority two judges of the SC Bench, even the best case scenario will see the now PM quickly become the former PM and be on his way out of the country before the law can wrap itself around him all over again.

Where, then, will he choose to go? Saudi, which housed him in the pervious exile? Or Qatar, which helped his family with the big, if dubious, investments and sent a delegation to help out with the JIT? Or would he prefer to stay home and see how the law rolls out?

The writer is Resident Editor, Daily Times Lahore, tweets @yourafiq and can be reached at yourafiq@gmail.com