Daily Times

Is the Middle East going to war? Going by recent developments during the Riyadh Summit and after, this seems a distinct possibility. The question that begs an answer, therefore, is why? And what is Qatar guilty of?

There are basically two groups in the Middle East. The Saudi-UAE-led group with Jordan, Bahrain and Egypt — all countries in the group are autocratic monarchies besides being silent supporters of Israel; and the Iran-led group including Iraq and Syria.

Turkey has a direct interest in the region due to the common factor of Kurds but its political interests are diverse and often leave it on the wrong side. The rest of the ME is loosely allied to either of the two groups. Qatar has a shared economic interest with Iran. It has the largest reserve of natural gas in the world but shares a portion with Iran. While not directly allied with either of the two groups, it is inclined towards Iran and has disagreements with the Saudis on Syria and Yemen.

However, Qatar is the only country in the region that has made amazing economic progress in the last couple of decades, and successfully attempts at an equitable distribution of wealth. It has, under the last two emirs, father and son, also acquired a respected political status.

And under the current emir, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, the country has successfully bid for hosting the 2022 football world cup — a rare honour. And, Qatar has an independent and powerful relationship with the United States. So much so, that it hosts US’ largest military base in the region.

While Qatar’s amazing progress must also irk the more traditional ME power centres, its principled position on regional affairs and refusal to accept Saudi suzerainty has always been irksome to the Saudi royalty. But, what really got under everybody’s skin was Qatar’s espousal of a very powerful and widely heard media in Arabic and English languages — that reports facts and refuses to accept censorship. This comprises channels and publications like Al-Jazeera, Al Arabi al-Jadid, Al Quds al-Arabi and an Arabic version of Huffington Post.

After the Saudi-led group broke diplomatic relations with Qatar, the Emir of Kuwait offered to mediate. And the demands he conveyed to the Qatari Emir had nothing to do with terrorism or any of the other accusations levelled at the country. The real demand was the ‘defanging’ of its media.

Qatar’s amazing progress probably began in 1995 when the current emir’s father, Hamad bin Khalifa, took over. His son, Tamim, merely accelerated that progress. But, the actual divergence of Qatar from the traditional political methodology of the autocratic rulers in the ME became starkly visible during and after the Arab Spring. Even though UAE was not directly hit by the Arab Spring, it sided with KSA and the traditional monarchies. Their response to the Arab Spring’s demand for public political empowerment was suppression coupled with ‘buying off’ leaders and groups. Qatar’s response was an increasingly proportional distribution of wealth and provision of an increasingly vocal, independent and well-funded media. Now that is an unforgivable crime to the autocrats of the ME. The resultant instability will ideally suit their secret mentor, Israel. The saying, “order emerges out of chaos”, attributed to the KGB, may well be historically provable. However, what proponents of such policies fail to cater for is the fact that chaos is not containable or controllable. And, therefore, the nature of the order that emerges out of chaos can never be predicted. In this case, it is quite possible that Saudis and their allies have misjudged the effects that may flow from the scenario they have created. Let us not forget that at the Riyadh Summit the Qatari emir was an honoured guest who sat beside Donald Trump until he was replaced by the emir of UAE who arrived late. Consequently, something had to trigger this sudden severance.

On June 6, Donald Trump offered to mediate between Qatar and KSA. The next day, he was reported as having agreed with Saudis on isolating Qatar. What caused this sudden change of heart?

On June 5, the Qataris rose at sehri to hear their emir on the national TV making wild accusations against the Saudi monarch, Donald Trump, and in support of Iran in a speech he was reported as having given to a group of graduating soldiers. This was simultaneously being aired by all media channels of the Saudi group — all of them refused to air the Qatari denial.

Actually, the emir didn’t address military graduates this year. This was a magnificent job of hacking. It is no secret that UAE has been working at developing hacking as a form of electronic warfare, since the Arab Spring.

On June 6, media reports dilated on Trump’s call to the emir of Qatar reassuring him and offering to mediate between Qatar and KSA to find an amicable solution. But, the very next day, Trump was reported as having talked to the Saudi monarch and agreed on the isolation of Qatar. What caused Trump’s sudden change of heart?

There was another telephone conversation between Trump and the emir of UAE, which occurred between Trump’s reassurance to Qatar and his decision to side with the Saudis. Could this have helped change his mind? As I wrote here in an earlier article, Trump has proved that, under his command, US policies are for sale. The only tangible tie between US and Qatar is the former’s military bases. But, if UAE offered to fund the construction of better US bases on its shores, would Trump be willing to drop Qatar like the proverbial ‘hot brick’?  To conclude, I will dare make one prediction, though. If a conflict arises in the ME, the House of Saud is unlikely to survive it for long.

The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)