Daily Times

The COVID-19 causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. It have been linked to a live animal seafood market in Wuhan, pointing to a zoonotic origin of the epidemic. Human-to-human transmission, however, has driven its spread in the strongly interconnected human world community. On December 27, 2019, a hospital in Wuhan reported the first COVID-19 case to the center of disease control (CDC) in the capital. On January 8, 2020 a new coronavirus was identified that spread all over China in next three weeks and across the globe in the next month. In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, that in the absence of a vaccine became a challenge for mankind with a tendency to grow exponentially if no measure is taken to prevent it.

The incubation period of COVID-19 can last for a period of two weeks or longer. During the period of latent infection, the disease may still be infectious. The coronavirus can spread from person to person through respiratory droplets and close contacts. The study shows that in order to control the pandemic in the absence of medicines, the requirement is to take calculated steps at the appropriate time. Therefore in addition to data analysis we need a visible understanding of risk management.

On February 26, 2020 first two confirmed coronavirus cases were reported in Pakistan. In March, the arrival of zaireen from Iran, participants in tableeghi jamat from foreign countries, and Pakistani people arriving from abroad in special flights caused an abrupt increase in the COVID 19 confirmed cases. Since then the day-to-day development of the pandemic in all the provinces of Pakistan describes an exponential increase of the confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths. The thousands of people with foreign travel history, in the presence of lack of testing and quarantine facilities caused enormous pressure on limited financial resources and medical infrastructure. Whereas, poor state of management pushed the country many weeks ahead in time in its fight against growing COVID-19 pandemic.

The effective preparedness on medical, and technical fronts together with optimal allocation of prevention measures, resources, and organization of production activities shall take the country out of the global COVID-19 pandemic

In the next forty days, de-facto quarantining of the provinces by restricting the movement of people, employing social distancing, tracing and tracking, closing educational institutes, parks and restaurants, limited air and train travel services, the Government of Pakistan tried to control the COVID-19 spread in the country. This reduced the exponential growth of the COVID-19 pandemic, from an exponent value 0.85 to a new exponent value as 0.74, thus reducing the size of the pandemic in Pakistan

The so far measures to eradicate COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan resulted in the number of confirmed cases today as 32674, including 23395 active cases, 8555 recovered and 724 deaths. The analysis of the COVID-19 confirmed cases and its extrapolation to May 31 show that the pandemic size may increase four times in the absence of lockdown, whereas in case of a partial lock down by easing the preventive measures the pandemic size shall reach sixty thousands confirmed cases in the next twenty days. However a smart lock down at this stage had enabled the country to get rid of the pandemic by end of July.

In order to avoid poverty, business melt down and economic depression in Pakistan the Government is easing the lockdown measures in the month of May. The business centers, shops, intercity train services are opening in these days, anticipating people transportation. The within-a-city and inter-city commutation of people shall make the public vulnerable and take the COVID-19 pandemic to higher levels in coming months.

Therefore together with the given relaxation in lockdown in the month of May, a parallel public service campaign is to be launched by the government of Pakistan. This way people must be made concious of the growing COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan all the time. The doctors, subject experts, university faculty, educationists, and media should play an active role to keep the people well aware of the serious pandemic situation and convince them to take every measures essential for their own security.

The future risk management requires a stringent lockdown in June to control the pandemic in the country. The effective preparedness on medical, and technical fronts together with optimal allocation of prevention measures, resources, and organization of production activities shall take the country out of the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Pride of Performance, Salam Prize, Associate Member ICTP, Fulbright Fellow, Chancellor’s Gold medal for first position in MSc, Gold medal from Pakistan Academy of Science, The World Academy of Science Award