Now or Never Scenario for IOK

Author: Saleem Qamar Butt

The world is trying to grapple with the risks posed by COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 2020 with partial and total lockdowns hither and thither. However, the international community remained oblivious to a complete shutdown and curfew in Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) since August 2019, ever since the extremist BJP government in India deprived Kashmir of its special constitutional status and subjects of special rights by revoking articles 35-A and 370 of the Indian constitution. Indian incumbent far-right nationalist BJP government, being the political face of the extremist organisation, RSS (killer of Gandhi), has dreamed and worked for decades to achieve its goals of making India great again i.e. Maha Bharat of Ashoka times, through conversion or elimination of Muslims followed by other minorities; construction of Hindu temples in places of mosques; gulping all SAARC countries besides Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics.

Feeling emboldened by Trump and Modi’s bear hugs and a paper title of the new American strategically to contest and contain China, India is moving on the fast track to change the demography of the occupied Kashmir valley by establishing Sainik/military colonies, industrial zones for Indian investors and most nefariously introduction of Kashmir’s domicile to Hindus from over India. It is assessed that much before his second term expires as the prime minister, Modi and his team will try to achieve a change of demography as already has been done in Jammu and Ladakh and may hold elections or even stage a managed plebiscite in occupied Jammu and Kashmir to settle the Kashmir issue on the UN Security Council agenda. For over seven decades, India has remained thick-skinned to all resolutions, calls, appeals and diplomatic statements coming from the international community. Now in its second term, the BJP government is quickly undoing Indian constitution articles, which took care of the rights of Kashmiris and other Muslims in India.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), depriving the right of registration as Indian citizens only to Muslim immigrants from neighbouring countries, has created protests all over India.

That has sparked a well-planned genocide of Muslims, torture, rape and arson under state supervision as was done by Nazi Germans against Jews. By and large, the world powers once again remain unconcerned either due to the lame excuse of focus on challenges posed by COVID-19, but more realistically, due to the preference for economic interests over high morals. Ironically, Israel is supporting India in shaming its history. The Kashmiri Hurriyat leadership is behind bars on concocted allegations and struggling for life. The people of Kashmir are under complete lockdown for the last nine months and suffering from a shortage of food, medical supplies, treatment for Coronavirus and other diseases, media and internet shutdown and no access to anyone from outside to Kashmir valley. As a long-followed ritual, more than a million Indian saffronised military forces have further increased the brutal massacre of Kashmiri Muslims inside the valley as well as across the line of control; putting false allegations on Pakistan. Modi’s devil forces, led by Ajit Doval, have ratcheted their covert operations using Afghan and Iran’s soil, as clearly stated by Doval and cronies on Indian national electronic media as well as on social media: India would use its moles in former tribal areas of Pakistan and in Balochistan to create havoc in both places.

While Indian brutalities against Muslims in IOK and all over India are reprehensible, Modi as chief minister earned the shameless title of “Butcher of Muslims” in Gujrat. Now as the prime minister, he has become even more notorious as the butcher of Muslims all over India. BJP home minister Amit shah termed Indian Muslims as termites that needed to be erased and rooted out. Another BJP former minister and MP declared Indian Muslims as unequal citizens and stated that article 14 of the Indian constitution, which guaranteed equal rights to all Indian citizens, could not be applied to them. The same is perhaps true for low caste Hindus as per detestable Hindu caste system still rigidly followed by RSS, i.e. Brahmins, Khastaris, Vesh and Shudras (untouchables).

After all, late BJP foreign minister, Shusmasuraj, had been openly saying that India would convert all Muslims in India, Pakistan and the larger region to Hindus (obviously low-caste) and make them a part of greater India. Not to mention that if the ancestors of Roman, Persian, Mongol, Ameer Taimur, Ottoman and more particularly Mughal Empire made similar claims, it would see India under Muslin rule again with its current strategic mentors non-existent. Nevertheless, BJP/RSS’s mad cow agenda is a”cat out of the bag” case; begging the only question, what are Pakistan’s options?

A major dispute between the two countries was never resolved by mere dialogue, diplomatic statements or international lip service

History provides no evidence that a major dispute between the two countries was resolved or a freedom struggle was won by mere dialogue, diplomatic statements or international lip service. Kashmir, being an UN-recognised humanitarian, historical and a political issue, (five UN Security Council resolutions called for giving a right of plebiscite and self-determination) remained subjected to Indian disregard with continued genocide of Kashmiri Muslims for over seven decades. Both India and Pakistan have already fought three conventional wars over Kashmir, which only paved the way for dialogue. However, India always used dialogues as a time-buying mechanism before reaching the current stage of absolute arrogance and disrespect to the UN and other international institutions. The bravest and proud Kashmiri people have withstood Indian consistent atrocities and Kashmiri youth have given the sacrifice of more than 100,000 martyrs with thousands of women widowed, raped, tortured and thousands of young kids blinded by the use of pellet guns by the intoxicated coward Indian military and para-military forces. These chicken-hearted and immoral forces of Modi have burnt properties, crops and fruit orchards of Kashmiri Muslims to snatch away their right to live. Indian unabated and unprovoked ceasefire violations, targeting civilians across the line of control and never allowing UN Military Observer Group to come close to the line of control from either side, says all about the shameless and nefarious game plan of Modi’s indoctrinated military forces. On the other hand, it is bound to create fissures in Indian Armed forces with the serious command, control and operational employment challenges. BJP/RSS’s narrowband extremist policies are a political boon for Modi as it pleases its fanatic followers. However, the sober and saner minds in India are seriously worried as the BJP government is eroding the constitutional foundations of India by revoking its cunningly chosen articles, which throws fake claims of Indian secularism and so-called largest democracy out of the window. A Muslim minority of over 200 million in India and in IOK (which is far more than the population of many European countries combined) has been deprived of their constitutional rights. The state is no better for Sikh, Christians and other smaller communities. The unity in diversity, non-alignment and secularism masks have been finally removed courtesy Modi and its fanatic saffron followers, exposing dangerous fault lines of India. It is assessed that more than dozen military insurgencies in India already striving for Independence from Indian shackles will get a fillip and BJP’s foolish dream of Maha Bharat may result in meeting the fate of former the Soviet Union sooner than expected. The ‘Economist’ that was projecting India as an economic hub and giant in 2010, is now asking on its title pages, “Would Modi save India or wreck it”( 2014); and “Intolerant India, How Modi is endangering the world biggest democracy”(2019). At world economic forum, IMF CEO Gita Gopinath blamed Modi’s India for 80% responsible for a slowdown in the global economy. The same was highlighted in my earlier published analysis, “More of Modi means less of India”. The worst performance on the economic front by Modi from 2014 onwards has made life miserable for Indian farmers and low-income people. Despite that BJP lavishly spent more than US $71 billion on military procurements, which is 37 per cent more than in the last ten years; surely not just for hefty kickbacks but it fits in BJP/ RSS war hysteria against Pakistan that may unfold as a consequence of a stage-managed Black Swan in IOK or other parts of India; with unintended and unimaginable consequences nevertheless. A nightmare for the global peace and security both being nuclear states; therefore, earlier the UNO wakes up to its responsibility along with members of Security Council to put Modi government on a leash and force it to immediately cease its anti-Muslim agenda, restore revoked articles and fulfil obligations on IOK as per UN security council’s resolutions, the better for peace and security in South Asia and rest of the world.

Now coming to Pakistan’s options, it is a given that forceful diplomacy, academic discussions and lip service by domestic and international politicians, institutions and war of words on print, electronic and cyber media have their value yet not enough to help Kashmiri Muslims to win their freedom struggle or right of self-determination. The same holds good for the plight of Muslims all over India now. Pakistan has to expand its base of both kinetic and non-kinetic reaction. Few macro suggestions on non-kinetic response may include: using all available means of communication; sending out a sustained call to two billion Muslims all over the world to boycott anything made in India; cutting off business commitments and finding better alternative; stopping imports from India; removing Indian Hindus from employment list and sending them back to Modi’s India.

Pakistani and Kashmiri Muslims all over the world should arrange organised protests, make and distribute handouts including use of social media in local languages and make host countries aware of BJP government’s mayhem in occupied Kashmir and all over India against minorities with focus on Muslims. Pakistani and Kashmiri diaspora must embark on the social boycott of Indian Hindus until they force their government back home to grant the right of self-determination to Kashmir and stop the carnage of Muslims all over India. Government of Pakistan should measure up its weight and height, rise to the occasion and officially request all Muslim countries, especially those dependent on Pakistan’s security assistance, to cut off economic ties with India, send millions of Hindu employees back to India till sense prevails on Modi’s Nazi Hindu government (or else response be communicated clearly without mincing of words). Suffice to point out that the Afghan peace process can wait till 100 per cent removal of Indian proxies from there.

As for Kinetic options, with the experience of serving on the line of control for almost six years and many years of deployment along the international borders, I can say with full confidence that Pakistan Army and other motivated troops who prefer Shahadat over life will always give a bloody nose to any misadventure by India by land, air or sea…bluff of Balakot, Kargil and shooting down of Abhinandan and Co was just a trailer to send a chill down Indian spine. While Armed Forces of Pakistan are battle-hardened after 20 years long successful war against terrorists and proxies unleashed on our motherland from all over the world, it is the dark shadow of RAW/ Doval brigades that need to be zoomed in both home and abroad for ruthless elimination, besides paying them in the same coin in their bunkers. People in Occupied Kashmir need our immediate physical help that may start with preparations for simultaneous multiple crossings all along the line of control by volunteers’ brigades of a million sized forces from Azad Kashmir; mere lip service is suicidal for Kashmir Cause. Lesser said the better with a reminder that fortune favours the brave and when it is law of the jungle that prevails, only Lions live with Pride.

The writer is a retired senior Army officer with rich experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geopolitical and strategic security issues. His website is www.sqbutt.com.

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