Daily Times

The Afghan land is in trouble and war since President Sardar Daoud staged a bloodless coup against his cousin, King Zahir Shah, in 1973 during the latter’s visit to Italy. Daoud’s tilt towards the Soviets and his pro-communist policies resented the masses and political leadership provided for the struggle against his power. Although he was killed as the result of the Saur Revolution in April 1978, the situation under the government of Noor Muhammad Tarakai was also unstable. And the subsequent Soviet invasion added insult to injury as Afghanistan became a battlefield for two superpowers. After more than a decade of one superpower’s withdrawal, another superpower got involved in the country, which has now paved the way for its withdrawal after 19 years of war through a peace deal.

The US-Taliban peace deal was supported all over the world except by India who didn’t want any reconciliation with the Taliban because they can come to power through a sharing formula and curtail their clout in the Afghan polity. Although the US and the Taliban have agreed for a peace roadmap that provides for the US withdrawal and the intra-Afghan talks–a ray of hope after decades if materialised.

There can be two future scenarios in Afghanistan: one, the best one that will bring peace and stability to Afghanistan would only be possible if the intra-Afghan talks succeed. Two, the worse one, which can lead Afghanistan to another war-like situation where it will become difficult for the government to sustain its power. The current period is quite decisive and crucial for Afghanistan and any decision based on vested interests can lead Afghanistan to a worse situation. That decision, at the moment, lies in Kabul, which will decide the fate of the Afghans.

The best-case scenario resulting from a successful intra-Afghan talk will bring peace and stability. First, the Taliban inclusion in government will end the 40-years-long War in Afghanistan. Besides the Taliban, no other strong-armed group in Afghanistan can challenge the government except a minor presence of the ISIS that can be very easily removed once the Afghan security forces got strength. The Taliban’s huge military cadre will join the Afghan forces that will give a robust strength to it.

Second, due to the strong presence of the Taliban in government, no political force could be able to make unlawful decisions. We have so many examples in previous years. Two times, in two consecutive elections, Abdullah Abdullah refused to accept the election results that were quite shocking for any democracy. So, a strong third force will halt such kind of acts from any group. Afghanistan is divided between pro-Ghani and pro-Abdullah factions; a third force is the need of the hour to provide for a balance.

Third, Afghanistan’s smooth relations with Pakistan are very important for the former, as it is landlocked. Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and its trade route that links Afghanistan with India are very important for Afghanistan. Smooth ties between both states can provide Afghanistan with access to India and Gwadar port. The Taliban inclusion in the Afghan government will provide for a balanced relation with the regional countries that it lacks at the moment. As compared to other neighbouring countries, Pakistan is the most important for Afghanistan due to its more than a million refugees in Pakistan, their dependence on health facilities in Peshawar and Islamabad, and its trade. The current Afghan government is mostly harsh towards Pakistan, and it is tilted towards the latter’s rival India that caught Islamabad in suspicion due to its security concerns. The Taliban inclusion in the Afghan government will provide for a balanced government that decisions will not go against any country nor the Afghan soil can be used against any regional country.

Fourth, Pakistan and Afghanistan can solve its contentious historical issue that has always hampered their relationship: the Durand Line can be solved. During the Taliban government in the late 1990s, when Pakistan asked the Taliban to recognise the Durand Line as a permanent border, the Taliban replied they have not a stable government even they are not internationally recognised, when we will become stable, we will talk about it. A balanced government that will not have any anti-Pakistan attitude will look at the matter in historical, political, and most importantly its legal status in the light of international law, which can pave a way for the resolution of the issue.

Fifth, the inclusion of the Taliban will provide for a balanced approach towards all the neighbours. Taliban have good relations with all the neighbouring and regional states, that will boost Afghanistan trade and cooperation with them. If Pakistan has any reservations in post-9/11 Afghanistan, it’s about the Indian sway that no doubt threatens Pakistan security through various means. Taliban have categorically reiterated they will not allow any state to use the Afghan soil against anyone. The Indian opposition to any deal with the Taliban was probably due to this that the Taliban will halt their sway in Afghanistan. Taliban are also in contact with Iran, which is very close to the Taliban now.

Sixth, peace and stability will bring investment to Afghanistan, once the war ends. There are large mineral resources in Afghanistan however, due to the worsening security situation, states refrain from any big investment. China is currently the top investor in Afghanistan that will further boost its investment. Besides, the Chines One Belt One Road (OBOR) project will also pass through Afghanistan that will make Afghanistan an international route and will provide for jobs and trade. Also, it will connect Afghanistan directly with the Middle East and beyond through Gwadar Port.

Pakistan is the most important for Afghanistan due to its more than a million refugees in Pakistan, their dependence on health facilities in Peshawar and Islamabad, and its trade

The worst-case, that it must not happen, however, it cannot be denied if the Afghan government didn’t show seriousness to the intra-Afghan talks. Out of three main actors involved in the Afghan conflict: the US, the Afghan government and the Taliban, the US and Taliban have provided a peace roadmap that has to be followed by the Afghan government if it is serious for bringing peace to the country. If the Afghan government could not start the intra-Afghan talks and the US-Taliban deal failed, the following scenario may shape the situation in Afghanistan.

First, the US is already not happy with the Afghan government due to two reasons: one, the Ghani-Abdullah conflict that they didn’t solve despite Secretary Pompeo’s efforts. When the same case happened back in 2014, the then US Secretary of State, John Carry succeeded in brokering a deal between the two parties. Two, the Afghan government does not abide by the agreement the US has done with the Taliban. It is in the agreement that the Afghan government will release five thousand Taliban forces and the Taliban will release one thousand Afghan government prisoners. Nonetheless, the Ghani Administration is not following the agreement otherwise there may have much more development in the intra-Afghan talks that had to start on the 10th of March. If this situation continues to thrive, the US will leave its troops earlier in which COVID-19 is also a factor. Two, the US has already cut $1 billion aid and may further cut its aid which will be an unbearable situation for Kabul as it will not be able to pay for its security forces.

Second, the Afghans can miss this golden opportunity of bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan. The US-Taliban agreement took the US’s ten years of consecutive efforts. Moreover, this agreement was supported by almost all the regional, neighbouring, and major powers. The Geneva Accords have also paved the way for the Soviet withdrawal but at the same time, they left their pro-government in Kabul that was not acceptable to the other groups. However, the current situation is different where if this agreement succeeds, all the major actors are involved, no one remains, that can threaten the future set-up.

Third, the Taliban will increase its operations and without foreign troops help, Kabul may collapse in a short period against the Taliban. The political leaders have also made money and have their loyalties, thus they will if the situation got worsened will come on the battlefield providing for a civil war. There are already reports that a major portion of the Afghan forces are not willing to fight the Taliban as they consider them as their brothers and countrymen. This situation will provide the Taliban with the opportunity to take Kabul, or at least try for it once again.

Fourth, in the case of armed conflict, the neighbouring and regional countries will also be concerned about their security and will try to assist their favourable groups. There will be two case situations: one, a continuous war in which no one will dominate the country. Two, if any group takes charge of Kabul, that will not be acceptable to other regional countries and thus they will try to overthrow it as happened in the late 1990s in the Najib government’s case.

Fifth, the COVID-19 is spreading rapidly in the country; in case of any armed conflict, it will be impossible for the government as well as the international community and other non-governmental organisations to carry out health services. The COVID-19 plus chaos may prove catastrophic for Afghanistan. There are reports too that COVID-19 may kill more people than war. However, those estimations are in light of the current situation, if the situation becomes deteriorated, the fatalities will go high.

Sixth, with every passing day, reports come saying people are joining the Taliban. Common masses as well as the high-profile figures in the Afghan society look at the situation and decide accordingly. Yesterday, the former police chief of the Farah province joined the Taliban, which is alarming for the government, if such high-profile figures are joining the Taliban. Moreover, rural areas are mostly under the influence of Taliban narrative and people support them. If they take some major cities, people will assume they may soon take the country so let’s join them. It will be a situation when the US attacked and many Afghans were fighting the Taliban to get a share in the future set-up.

In essence, the current road to peace has been agreed after a decade-long negotiation between the US and Taliban, and the US to a large extent has compromised its interests. That is why many in the US consider the US-Taliban agreement as a victory for the Taliban. However, there was no other viable option except compromise, that the US did. The Afghan government cannot fight the Taliban if the US pulled out. Kabul should seriously consider the consequences they can face if the chance of peace was missed.

The writer tweets @yosafzaiZafar5