Daily Times

I wish the Hendra virus had been persuaded clinically and medically to invent vaccine for this mother virus which could have enabled the scientists, virologists, biologists to progress quickly in inventing the vaccine for Coronavirus. The study in the past and now shows that the coronavirus is from the family of Hendra virus HeV which was first isolated in 1994 which is a member of the family Paramyxoviridae, genus. The specimens of the Virus were obtained during an outbreak of the respiratory and neurologic disease in horses and humans. The virus broke out in a suburb of Brisbane, Australia in 1994. It is somehow related to the Nipah virus. Henipaviruses are characterized by a wide host range and long genomes. The recent emergence of Henipaviruses as zoonotic pathogens being capable of causing illness and death in domestic animals and humans is a cause of concern now. There is a big question that this disease originated from an animal but it did cause illness in human beings as well. The natural reservoir for Hendra virus has since been identified as the flying fox (bats of the genus Pteropus). Since 1994 and as of 2013, Hendra virus infections in humans remain rare; only seven cases have been reported. The symptoms of the virus appear in 15 – 16 days and the virus can be prevented by avoiding contact with ill or infected horses. Over the next 16 years, 18 outbreaks of the now infamous Hendra virus were recorded through Queensland and NSW. There have been 16,004 confirmed cases of Corona in Israel out of which 8,758 got recovered while 223 have died. This latest emergence of information on Hendra HiV having been started from Horse in Australia 1994 – 1995 shows that the investigation on whether it is natural or man-made is still pending. I would like to say that it is proven that the coronavirus has been tested positive in pets like cats and dogs. This is a strong indicator that this virus is inter conceivable between humans and animals. In the given situations it is Omni’s fact that our villagers and their animals live in the same vicinities. In the given situation, coronavirus is equally dangerous for our animals hence our Veterinary doctors should be kept ready to handle such eventualities. The district management through the local SHO & Patwaries need to create awareness among the villagers to take precautionary measures.

The analysts are of the view that the way we are living our lives during this pandemic and taking measures respectively, is going to changes our lives permanently. The vision following the post-pandemic world is to ensure the change is for the better and not worse

The government must also include the protection of animals in the SOPs as it must not be ignored. Was it not the irresponsibility of the doctors or virologists who were supposed to keep a check but they chose to ignore it instead and let this virus go unchecked? This is on record that this Hendra virus initially contracted by horses and transmitted to a human being was proven. One is forced to think that the same virus could also travel through or even half grams of its transmission could have created havoc like only one gram of Coronavirus has brought the world to the knees. The failure of virologists has brought the world to this level. The scientists need to look at the track Hendra transmissions and its potential conversion into COVID-19. Had the world gotten its act together at the time of discovery of Hendra and if some vaccine was invented then today COVID-19 would have been eradicated totally from the world whereas now it looks to be a very difficult task ahead and perhaps the biologist and virologist may have to look at these two viruses together to find a collective solution in terms of a potent vaccine to save the world. A timely warning could have activated an advance alert enabling the Countries to enhance surveillance without even declaring a national emergency but only by closing every restaurant and shopping mall in the nation for only three weeks prior to the outbreak. Countries around the world had time to prepare. A global common man has the right to ask where are the world’s most modern systems which take them beyond the moon but failed to detect the tiny virus. Since Covid 19 is a disease caused by SARS which itself was eventually ended after reaching multiple countries, rapid and severe action by multiple governments cut the case count to zero. Once the virus disappeared from the last human host, SARS was declared eradicated. SARS was about as contagious as COVID-19 and certainly more deadly. But it didn’t have the ability to hide in mild cases as COVID-19 does and it’s behaving pattern is different. Historically, major plagues (think Black Death and Spanish flu) infected until we reached herd immunity. If half the world has already experienced and recovered from COVID-19, then the virus will have a hard time spreading because it will hit the wall of an immune patient as often as a vulnerable one. This is the basis of the modeling that says 70% of the world will eventually be infected by COVID-19. (Note that these models usually assume that we stand back and do nothing at all, which is the worst-case scenario). In the present circumstances, the only option is to enhance surveillance to stop human contact which is becoming increasingly difficult. The countries may have to declare national emergencies to cut the multiplication of the victim’s load. We need to buy time and raise awareness about social distancing and hand hygiene. A nationwide drive for testing through a mobile device or other means must be done to fish out the victims from the large population to break the circle, especially in every major city. The proper legislation always works as in the case of South Korea where there are drive-through test locations in every major city, and also every hospitalized patient with pneumonia must be tested for COVID-19 like Singapore and mobilize teams of epidemiologists for its detection. Now with this infrastructure available it almost guaranteed to catch outbreaks before they become large. 20% of COVID-19 patients as according to the WHO SOP, have to be hospitalized.

The detection of virus patients is highly important as if they are not screened out properly, these will be continued sources of its spreading. Let us not forget that every one patient infects & converts the other 30 healthy persons into patients and in such a situation the WHO policy got to be observed and 30 people got to go for isolation. This process of contact tracing is a targeted lockdown. Rather than shutting down the entire country, you shut down a small community of about 30. China found that 85% of transmission occurs in family clusters. By drawing a larger net of about 30, you might stop something like 95% of all transmission. In Singapore, the authorities would call you at home three times a day to check if you are in isolation, and if you step outside against the rules, they attach a GPS bracelet with you to keep a track of your movement. Sometimes, people get through contact tracing (or arrive from a different country) and you’ll see another outbreak, but you’ll catch it again when this happens. China used this process at scale in Wuhan, having mobilized 1800 such contact tracing teams with 5 or more people each. Countries should keep this up for a year until the vaccine is ready. Now we can get your herd immunity without sacrificing 2% of your countrymen. The analysts are of the view that the way we are living our lives during this pandemic and taking measures respectively, is going to changes our lives permanently. The vision following the post-pandemic world is to ensure the change is for the better and not worse. As the crisis is unfolding new phases, the physical model of the world is being devastated by the closure of businesses, hotels, air networks, and transport systems, etc whereas the digital world is thriving as the world is surviving the pandemic because of technology. People are sitting at home while having the image of the world through their smartphones. The tech world will become even more powerful and dominant than it was before. Not only the big players such as Google, Apple, Facebook, and PayPal but also the small companies like Zoom will secure an economic boom and not just American firms, but also many others increasingly will become dependent on technology. The government’s use of surveillance will be justified and escalate even more. Although it is a powerful weapon to fight the virus – for countries like Israel and China which are using smartphones to figure out who’s been where in order to identify and track clusters of the virus but at the same time, as this moves threaten individual’s privacy and freedom, these will undermine our socio-political rights but nothing can be done now at this stage. We will be in a fast-forward situation towards the fourth industrial revolution as everything including the health services are being digitalized. This will allow the states to have remote control over their civil societies and individuals will have to surrender their civil rights and liberties in return for security and services. All the states especially technocratic authoritarians will exploit their power to contract public spaces and individual freedom. Fragile economies like Pakistan will bear more losses as the states will be pushed into anarchy and chaos because of economic depression bringing 100,000 masses to the street to overthrow regimes whose legitimacy will be suspected by their inability to manage the crisis.

We will see a revolution in the delivery of primary healthcare as a public health emergency has taken a massive toll over the physique of the world’s population. We also see the ability of state governments to boost and upgrade their healthcare units with the installation of ICU-level assets, protective gear, and ventilators. Looking at the present index Pakistan has figured out at 154 out of 195 countries. How could the Pak health care system handle such a huge impact of a virus with the present system?

It is bound to bring the Pak Economy further down and we will not be able to discharge our international financial obligation and that is why I have proposed to the government to invoke the Force Majeure Law to get International loan written off. In the given growing situation, it is feared that due to the security measures and new rules on social contact with the digital world, restrictions on gatherings or even participants for worship and sanitation for every religion, the rituals, and religious practices would never be the same. The world will look a changed place post corona if we survive all. One gram of virus has changed the mighty world which was defying the law of nature and now that nature has used its might its way, the world is now developing into different changing faces.

Note- Opinions expressed are solely my own and not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my party.

The writer is a PPP Senator, former Interior Minister of Pakistan, and Chairman of think tank “Global Eye” and Senate Standing Committee on Interior. Twitter @SenRehmanMalik