Daily Times

The advent of a new type coronavirus with quite unprecedented characteristics such as high contagiousness, long incubation time – stretching to 14 days which necessitates the isolation time of two weeks -has put the world in a fix. By the time the danger was recognized the virus had already spread across borders, regions and oceans. Patients who are infected by the virus show a large range of symptoms and the disease can take a mild or severe course. The disease can turn severe even after 7 to 10 days within a few hours with oxygen levels of the patient falling fast and the need for additional oxygen or even ventilator treatment could arise at a short notice. Doctors treating Covid-19 patients until today experience strange courses of the disease including mental disorientation and dizziness, fixtures and others. Given this fact even being a young person without previous ailments and according to the preliminary statistics have a low infliction of the virus makes it desirable to avoid infection at all cost.

The first natural reaction to avoid infection, therefore, is this: don’t touch your face or only after washing hands thoroughly and avoid contact with other people who could be infected. Social distancing and lock-downs which have been the first reaction to the virus will stay in use until reliable vaccination is available (1 to two years). Even the development of a potent cure is only second best; it may have side effects and may not prevent all the long-term effects of the virus.

Therefore, social distancing and lock-down as easily available first preventive measure does not mean easy to bear – at least not on the longer run. People in the West who over the centuries have gone through a process of individualization and break-up of traditional communities like village community, extended family and even religious groups so that they may be less dependant on social contacts in a situation that could be described as ‘natural or habitual social distancing’. Asian, African, South American, southern and eastern European people have retained stronger social relations with family members, friends and neighbours and, as a consequence, suffer more from the need to social distancing. That is why Italy, Spain, Russia have seen higher infection rates in the beginning and it took real strength to bring get a grip on it.

‘Smart lock-down’ means that supply lines have to remain open, harvest has to be fetched in time and processed – otherwise we might be looking at a food shortages soon – businesses have to be allowed to reopen

When the people of Italy and Spain had understood the danger, they accepted the lock-down as the logical consequence and acted accordingly, this helped them to defy the virus. Countries have a strong governance and a strong economy can help to absorb the economic shock of losing a job and income. With a weak economy and the state perceived to be not responsible people get worried, restless and defiant when they see their incomes vanish, their business go down and economy suffering. That is some in the West. Thousands of protestors have taken to the streets in the US urging the reopening of businesses. Even in Berlin the police had to disperse demonstrators demanding the reopening of business activities.

On 23 January 2020, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan in an effort to quarantine the center of coronavirus outbreak. Wuhan authorities informed all residents that from 10 am all public transport, including buses, railways, flights, and ferry services would be suspended and the Wuhan Airport, railway station, and Metro were all closed. No one was allowed to leave the city without permission. An estimated 300,000 people reported left Wuhan by train alone before the 10 am lockdown. By same afternoon of 23 January, authorities began shutting down the major highways. This came two days before the Chinese New Year, the most important festival in the country, and traditionally the peak traveling season, when millions travel across the country. Following the Wuhan lockdown, public transportation systems in two of Wuhan’s neighboring cities were also restricted, bringing the number of people affected to more than 50 million. A ‘closed community management’ was introduced, businesses were shut and millions of residents were confined to their homes and residential communities — not even for grocery shopping. Food would be delivered by the authorities. Only one entrance and exit point would be kept open. In some places, night-time access was prohibited, effectively a curfew, and in extreme cases, access was prohibited throughout the day. People entering and leaving were required to wear masks and receive temperature tests. In some areas, vouchers were issued to the public, with vouchers and valid credentials. Courier and food delivery personnel were prohibited from entering. Control in communities with confirmed cases was even more stringent. Even after the end of lock-down many shops in Wuhan remain closed, with restaurants reopening only for deliveries. Schools, cinemas and other entertainment venues remain shut. Many neighbourhoods still remain sealed off, only those with permission from their employers able to go back to work. There are still constant checkpoints where residents must show their “health code” and have their temperatures taken.

After the outbreak in late February in northern Italy, the Italian government enacted what has been called a “Wuhan-style lockdown,” quarantining nearly a dozen towns of 50,000 people in the provinces of Lombardy and Veneto. As it became a hotspot from 25 February Iran decided to assume similar lockdown procedures as in China and Italy. The Chinese method, through draconian, seems be working elsewhere as well, however wherever possible.

Pakistan has not been faring too badly with the numbers of infected and dead published daily only the tip of the iceberg. The UN Conference on Trade and Development has predicted that Pakistan will be one of the worst-hit economies globally. With half the 200 million people below or at the poverty line three weeks of suspension of businesses have brought millions close to starvation. In addition, the most vulnerable live in slum areas or poor neighbourhoods where the density of population is high, water is not or not sufficiently available and the danger of infection is multiple times higher than in well-to-do neighbourhoods. They have to go out for water, some job or to borrow some money. Their level of discipline is low given that representatives of the state rarely venture there to enforce rules. With poor people being mostly uneducated and superstitious which makes them prey to all kinds of rumours allegedly helping defying the virus and making social distancing unnecessary. The poor in this country face multiple other health hazards on a daily basis without anybody caring about it and their reaction “what the hell…” is to a certain extend understandable.

Enforcing social distancing in the highly congested slums has to be given priority. With Lyari just becoming a hotspot of infection, other densely populated areas many follow. A political party activist said that the “standard of living and general life style” of the area do not allow lock-down restrictions. Nobody’s life style does but nevertheless, everybody has to do what nobody likes. Deliver food and medicines at tightly controlled access points and send in teams of medical staff for testing and isolating the infected. The “life style” (and politics) of Lyaris may endanger the health of the rest of Karachi!

We have to make sure that the economic damage from coronavirus does not surmount the medical one. ‘Smart lock-down’ means that supply lines have to remain open, harvest has to be fetched in time and processed – otherwise we might be looking at a food shortages soon – businesses have to be allowed to reopen. Bakeries, beauty salons, repair shops for electrical appliances, ACs, shoes and others, tailors and so on – can operate on a daily basis so as to avoid crowding. But make the shops must open early mornings, especially during Ramadan, and close the markets after iftar so that crowding is avoided. Too early to stop social distancing life can still go on even if in a different way. Each country, even each city must enforce lockdown as it suits the needs of the people while keeping them safe.

Ikram Sehgal is a defence and security analyst while Dr Bettina Robotka, former Professor of South Asian Studies, Humboldt University, Berlin