Daily Times

Everything in Pakistan is more or less the way it should be. The prime minister (PM) is travelling around and expressing “high hopes.” The chief minister (CM) of the Punjab was in Turkey, while his capital city was under water, par for the course one might say. The CM of Sindh was busy making sure his ‘employees’ came to work on time. The Pakistan Rangers were busy shutting down the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) offices in Karachi, and Imran Khan was getting ready for another series of public protests with the cleric from Canada at his side. And yes, the weather is turning pleasant in Lahore, but the good mangoes are on their way out. So all in all, nothing too unusual.

But two questions that are most important for the immediate future of the present system are not in the news at all. The first question is about the state of health of the PM, and second is the question about the new Chief of Army Staff (COAS). About the new COAS, there are two points of view. My two representatives of the ‘voice of the people’ hold diametrically opposing points of view. My driver is convinced that the PM has already decided to give the present COAS a one-year extension. My cook, on the other hand, is convinced that the PM would rather become a vegetarian than offer the present COAS an extension.

My personal opinion in this matter is conditioned upon the PM’s state of health. I believe that if the PM is doing well, and is physically and emotionally ready to lead his party in the general elections expected in the beginning of 2018, he will then give the present COAS a one-year extension. Mind it, only a one-year not a two or three-year extension. The given reason for the one-year extension might be whatever, but the real reason is a bit complicated. A new COAS takes a few months to get his ‘sea legs’ and establish his authority. So a new COAS who takes over in November of next year would still be establishing his own authority within the army, and would find it difficult to interfere directly or indirectly in elections being held less than six months into his tenure. And that is exactly what the PM would want at that time.

If, however, the PM is not feeling up to snuff, and feels that he is surrounded by palace intrigues to replace him, he might decide to bring in a new COAS on schedule. The reason for this would be that the PM would prefer to have a COAS who is beholden to the PM for his promotion, and would, therefore, be more likely to support the PM if there are any attempts at destabilising the existing setup, in house or otherwise. Perhaps just as the present COAS protected the PM two years ago during the ‘dharna’ (sit-in). In this context it is important to remember that the next COAS would be a different person.

That sort of sums up my point of view about the appointment of a new COAS. There are other considerations that I am sure the PM and his advisors are mulling over right now. But that brings me to the state of the PM’s health. For the last many months I have been asking a simple question. Why has the PM not come on TV and addressed the nation? It did not have to be a long speech, but just a short and sweet thank-you to the people of Pakistan for their prayers for his health. Obviously, the PM is up and around, and that suggests that he is indeed feeling a lot better and has most likely recovered from his operation.

Nevertheless, I am entirely befuddled at the secrecy that still surrounds the operation the PM had when in England. We still don’t know the exact nature of the operation, and we don’t even know the name of the surgeon who operated on the PM. Both these things lend to conspiracy theories, especially the continued secrecy even after the PM has evidently made a pretty complete recovery from whatever it was that happened to him.

There is one persistent point of view that the PM never had any open-heart surgery, and it was all a ruse to get away from the Panama leaks situation, distract the people’s attention and, at the same time, garner some sympathy. Any surgeon who performed a successful major operation on a head of government like our PM would make sure that the whole world knew who it was that did the operation. Surgeons are by nature not modest at all.

Personally, I quite accept that the PM did indeed undergo a major heart operation, though the timing of the operation does seem a bit peculiar. I have explained my questions and reservations about the entire situation in my previous article on this subject (“Health of our leaders,” Daily Times, June 6, 2016). Interestingly, none of the questions I raised at that time have been answered satisfactorily. What that means is that either what I said was essentially correct or else what I said like what many others said at that time was ignored as being of no consequence.

There was a time when secrecy, routinely, surrounded health issues and personal problems confronted by politicians. President John F Kennedy had serious medical problems that were never disclosed while he was contesting the election for the presidency of the United States. However, in recent times because of the Internet and social media, even the slightest ‘news’ spreads and so do rumours. And often it is virtually impossible to differentiate between facts and rumours. One thing many politicians in the west have learned is that bad news is accepted by the people but the attempt to hide bad news or the ‘cover up’ often leads to greater problems.

The author is a former editor of the Journal of Association of Pakistani descent Physicians of North America (APPNA)