Daily Times

The coronavirus pandemic has hardly begun, and speculations are rife as to what would be its consequences after its ravages are over. I think it is yet too early to anticipate its effects on the geo- politics of the world, because nothing can be said at this stage with any degree of certainty as to what would be the future course of events. It is yet not known which part of the world it would hit too badly nor what would be the extent of the final damage. It is also not known what major decisions would be taken by the world leaders to stem its tide and what would be the chances of their success in overcoming the possible danger to humankind. It is also likely that the medical science may succeed in preparing its vaccine (which according to the present estimate would not be sooner than 12 to 18 months) and above all, it can’t be ruled out that after a couple of months of its initial damage, it may subside as mysteriously as it appeared. These are all the possibilities which may occur in future about which no prediction can be made at present.

Since it is in man’s nature to gamble with the circumstances, therefore predictions about future work like a fun with him. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger (now 96) said that the COVID-19 pandemic will forever alter the world order. There is a lot of weight in what he says in this context since he was secretary of State during the Nixon and Ford administrations, and it goes to his credit to establish diplomatic ties between the United States and China in 1987, which was his great achievement. He said that, “Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the COVID-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed,” he said. He added that “the key to avert such disasters would depend not on purely national effort but greater international cooperation.” The same views have been voiced by the modern historian and philosopher, Yuval Noah Harari who says, “The storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive – but we will inhabit a different world. The real antidote to epidemic is not segregation, but rather cooperation.”

COVID-19 has proven that pathogens can not only infect people but poison the entire systems. The United States will no longer be seen as an international leader because of its government’s narrow self-interest and bungling incompetence

Recently, in a survey, 12 leading global thinkers were invited to make their predictions. They were all great political analysts and thinkers of international repute. Rather than naming them individually, it would be of far greater interest for the readers to know what they say about the impact of this pandemic on the future shape of this world. I would therefore restrict myself to their predictions only.

Another thinker said that the pandemic will usher in a world which would be less open and more constrained. The pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. The Governments will be more prepared to meet emergencies of this kind. COVID-19 will also accelerate the shift in power from West to East. But it would not fundamentally change the nature of world politics. Previous plagues did not end great-power rivalry nor ushered in a new era of global cooperation. Even the deadly influenza epidemic of 1918-1919 (which caused the death of 500 million people) did not usher in a new era of global cooperation. Hence we cannot expect that a greater unity would be forged between the nations, as a result of the present pandemic.

Another thinker thought that The COVID-19 pandemic will not fundamentally alter global economic situations. It will only accelerate a change that had already begun: a move away from U.S.-centric globalization to a more China-centric globalization. The American population has lost faith in globalization and international trade. By contrast, China has not lost faith. China has now very well understood that China’s century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949 was a result of its own complacency and a futile effort by its leaders to cut it off from the rest of the world.

n One of the thinkers stated that America will need a new strategy. In 2017, President Trump announced a new national security strategy that focuses on great-power competition. The aftermath of COVID-19 will show that that strategy is inadequate. Even if the United States prevails as a great power, it cannot protect its security by acting alone. It has been too clearly known to the world that the 21st century technologies are global not just in their distribution, but also in their consequences. Pathogens, computer viruses, and radiation etc., which may accidentally get released could become as much America’s problem as for the rest of the world. Hence common contingency plans, and treaties must be evolved by all nations to cover their mutual risks.

COVID-19 has proven that pathogens can not only infect people but poison the entire systems. The United States will no longer be seen as an international leader because of its government’s narrow self-interest and bungling incompetence. Washington has failed the leadership test, and the world is worse off for it.

That provides hope that men and women around the world can come together in response to this extraordinary challenge.

To date, international collaboration has been woefully insufficient. If the United States and China, the world’s most powerful countries, cannot put aside their differences, the impact of the virus will be far worse. In every country, however, there are many examples of the power of the human spirit-of doctors, nurses, political leaders, and ordinary citizens demonstrating resilience, effectiveness, and leadership. That provides hope that men and women around the world can prevail in response to this extraordinary challenge.

In a nutshell, following results emerge by consensus of all thinkers, in the aftermath of COVID-19.

n The political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. The world will never be the same again.

n Looking at the results of previous plagues and epidemics (Like the deadly influenza epidemic of 1918-19 causing death of 500 million people round the world) which could not fundamentally change the nature of world politics, some thinkers predict that present pandemic instead of bringing radical change will only change the trends and directions of world politics in a way never experienced before.

n The pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. The Governments will be more prepared to meet emergencies of this kind. COVID-19 will also accelerate the shift in power from West to East.

n There will be a move away from U.S.-centric globalization to a more China-centric globalization.

n The U.S. by itself will not be able to protect its security by acting alone. The 21st century technologies will be used to meet the challenges due to growth of Pathogens, computer viruses, and radiation etc., forcing the world powers to prepare common contingency plans to cover their mutual risks.

n The United States will no longer be seen as an international leader because of its government’s narrow self-interest and bungling incompetence. Washington has failed the leadership test,

n In the face of such emergencies, international collaboration will be felt pathetically insufficient. If the United States and China, the emerging world’s most powerful countries, cannot put aside their differences, the impact of the virus will be far worse.

The writer is a former member of the Provincial Civil Service, and an author of Moments in Silence