Daily Times

The world has seen a rise in populist politics all over as refugee crises worsened, with the threat of global terrorism and the 2008 economic fallout at the back. From Trump winning a majority in the US owing to his hard-line stance on Mexican immigrants flooding the job market and threats of Islamic radicalism materialising as the population of Muslim immigrants increased in the US states, to Narendra Modi seizing a second term in the office cashing on an Indo-Pakistan war hysteria. Tories winning in the UK amid Brexit, and Jair Bolsonaro representing Brazil, crises have mainly given way to populist ideals, diverting the blame of failures of governance to marginalised or external forces. So is expected to happen with the Covid-19 pandemic as more and more countries fail to work out prevention.

In the US a surge has been witnessed in the approval ratings of President Trump as he openly blames China for the spread of what he and his administration, at multiple occasions, have termed as the “Wuhan Virus” or the “Chinese Virus.” A promise of more inward policies and pulling out USA’s contributions from international collations and financial forums and building more walls metaphorically and literally could take centre stage in Trump’s November 2020 election agenda. In the EU resentment existed for refugees even before the pandemic. Now the pandemic has strengthened the narrative of those vouching for stricter borders.

Scientific research will be expected to reclaim its lost glory from business and management studies

The perils of the debates, however, are not limited to only that; they would further the spread of racism and national superiority. Populist politics though will also have to divert its focus to strengthening institutions internally rather than have outright reliance on military might and the notion of national superiority in the near future.

If there is one thing that the outbreak has exposed in a full blow is the vulnerability of systems to unsuspected, non-traditional threats despite advanced technological and military capabilities. As new threats become more acute, threats that interconnectedness in the current global setup have made irrevocable, environmental security, natural disasters, cyber security and more recently, public health are bound to take a centre stage in governance priorities. Non-traditional security threats seem to dominate the day-to-day world for many in comparison to traditional wars and military conflicts that for many developed countries are now a tale of the past. Wars dilute into proxies and non-state actors take over the frontline.

States may no longer even be in a position to invest as much in proxy wars though. The blow that the spread of the pandemic has dealt to the economies of even the great powers of the world will require long-term cuts in military budgets to lift back the economy as investment in social recovery becomes mandatory. With limited reserves and inadequate avenues for borrowing, governments eventually will have the unanticipated spending be met by channelling funds from other high-value budget components, defence sector inevitably being one of them. It means more patent and long-term effects over the defence industry as it is one of the most exposed to externalities like politics, economics and social factors.

Also is the indication that for many middle-income countries and the great powers, there will be substantial repairs to make to their societies and economies. The politic of the future will require self-sufficiency as a prerequisite for the more developed at least; efficient public health care system, social welfare programmes, hi-tech and resilient industry and local food production are the new proven vitals of social stability. More labour friendly policies will be in demand, more civilian expenditure will be an obvious expectation of the populous. Scientific research will be expected to reclaim its lost glory from business and management studies.

This will require a shift from the existing system of liberal economy where wealth is concentrated in the hands of some and economies are run by multinationals corporations. States will be compelled and supported to take over the control in many a case. China’s successful example in the battle against the epidemic will serve as an inspiration to many, further fortifying the assumption that the democratic rights abridged in lieu of the current scenario may not see their former splendour for long. Authoritarianism may not be as despised as until recently, but it would surely require to adapt to some of the democratic values as human security becomes more profound a goal for development.

For better and for worse, the world can no longer function on the principles that ruled it until December 2019.

(Concluded)

The writer is a research associate at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad. Views are essentially the author’s own and does not reflect the institute’s policy