Daily Times

As the Chinese curse has it, people are living in interesting times. Sometimes books are so intuitive that one feels like experiencing extra sensory perceptions. Albert Camus wrote “Plaque”, Gabriel Marquez authored, “love in the time of cholera “and “hundred years of solitude”, George Orwell wrote “1984”, Daron Acemoglu wrote “the narrow corridor”. The strange thing about these books is the explicitly in which these define dystopia, rather these very beautifully link the political dystopia to the pandemic dystopia. The crux is that pandemics hit the health of both societies and economies together; both could not breathe at a particular time of occurrence. Acemoglu and James Robinson clearly in “narrow corridor” explain that society and state live in a corridor, nothing can survive like a stateless society or a society less state. Lesson, in pandemics, state has to save the society. Pakistani society comprise of about 5-7% rich and ultra rich, about 25-30% middle class and rest those who are barely managing their mundane affairs. Majority of people are directly or indirectly linked to agriculture. Even in urban centres, majority is linked to cottage industry and the other lowly means of sustenance. As per one estimate the major chunk of society cannot afford to sit at home even for few days. Here comes the paradox, the covet-19 safety protocols are exactly opposite to the natural survival graph of Pakistani society. We are now in the “Narrow corridor”. Thus for Pakistan the pandemic has become an issue of national security. Let threadbare the pandemic first. Bio-safety and bio-security are the concepts which are enshrined in the security paradigm of a nation. In this part of the world due to conventionality in animosity and to meet the other asymmetries, the bio-security lagged behind. Pakistan signed the biological and toxin weapon convention (BTWC) in 1972 and rectified it in 1974. It is also part of cartageno protocol. Pakistan participates and adheres to all the guidelines of world health organisation(WHO) and also the world health assembly(WHA). It is also a signatory to international health regulations ( IHR) specially, resolution58.3, which deals with pandemics(pertinent enough if Pakistan is also given the membership to Australia Group) . This gives Pakistan bio-security architecture to build upon and also linking it to its national security paradigm. Now study on pathogenesis reveals very interesting facts, there are over 1500 pathogens which can be weaponised or misused, stock of biological weapons is not declared by any country like that of nuclear stockpile, thus making this a real weapon of mass destruction. Chimeric organisms, synthetic biology, synthetic genomics, genetic engineering, and bio-informatics along artificial intelligence has made the study and laboratory management of pathogens such a dangerous field that it has surpassed the destructiveness of nuclear weapons. As Lenin once said , any use full idiot is fully capable of removing the lid from the diabolic bowl. This further necessitates the need for the securitization of health. The clinical, epidemiological and laboratory evidence clearly show that the covid-19 has the highest virulence factor. Probably this is the property which makes people most worrying. Due to this the society face the stoppages in transportation, which gyrate supply chain disruption both in international and local supply chain, this further results into social disruption, collapse of economy, melt down of stock exchange and if it persist(beyond the limit of three months) then a total anarchy. So covid-19 is the security threat. Usually any pandemic cycle is based on a period from a year to three years time; therefore Pakistan’s bio-security paradigm should cater the complete cycle. As too much connectivity has enhanced the virulence of covid-19, as already defined by Naseem Talib that this is not a black swan event, it is white swan, those who are at a trajectory on the scientific curve knew that it was coming. Every society is now divided between the corona virus maximalists (who say to do more) and the corona virus minimalists (who advise to take it easy). Solution definitely lies in between. Pakistani state has to do five things immediately, one the securitization of health by identifying the core capacity of the state in this field and also appointing the National Focal Point as per the guidelines of IHR. Second bioinformatics centre be made in all parts of the country, linked with academic and professional research institutions. Third, something like bio-shield act to be passed elaborating and sanctioning the complete bio-security paraphernalia of the country, it can be an addendum to the already passed national command authority act. We have given up the NCC, boy scouts and civil defence in the country but as per the threat perception of 21st century, can go for CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) squads. Fourth, Pakistan is an agriculture country, unlike the majority of European states, it is self sufficient in almost all items of necessary diet, so disruptions in international supply chain do not affect the society, the inability of farmers to grow and harvest is the real issue. State should devise means beside the mandatory precautions that the cropping, harvesting and storage along support price are all sorted out. Fifth, pathogens usually spread through aquatic birds and bats, a regulatory body of bio-safety and security are made with a blanket spread- over to the whole country. Unbridled poultry growth, especially latest trend of free range can become a problem till there is no scientific authority to monitor such things. With malice to none, persons to be the national focal point or the heads of different scientific and regulatory set up should be the carrier appointments rather than bureaucratic. Economically people have to be saved, only then the three, society, state and the leviathan can tango in the corridors of opulence and prosperity.

State should devise means beside the mandatory precautions that the cropping, harvesting and storage along support price are all sorted out

The writer is a free lance who contributes regularly on security related issues