Daily Times

Will a recent ceasefire agreement between Russia and Turkey to halt the fighting in that unfortunate country work? If the past any guide, it is unlikely. Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been in a frenzied hurry to bring most of the county under his effective control. Turkey is not amused and got directly involved in the fighting to stop Damascus from completingitsoccupation of Idlib, parts of which are under Turkish-supported and sponsored rebels.

Turkey is virtually controlling Syria’s Kurdish-majority region along its border, which had almost become self-governing, after designating the Kurdish militia as terrorists. This became easy when the Trump administration decided to withdraw US troops from much of that region, despite the vital role played by the Kurdish militia to defeat the IS.

Thatfurther emboldened Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to take on the Syrian forces advancing into the rebel-held areas of Idlib. Of course, this Syrian advance was done with the support of the Russian air power.

The Basharal-Assad regime would have been history if Russia hadn’t intervened in a big way to support the government. Having done that, it seems committed to help the Assad regime secure control of much of the country. Moscow’s effective intervention in Syria has made it an important power in a vital region where it was a marginal factor. Now all the regional countries have to take notice of Russia’s moves, whether they like it or not, especially after Trump is losing interest, apart from seeking to de-stabilise Iran.

Regarding the Russian-Turkish ceasefire agreement, even though Moscow is reluctantly putting a brake to limit Syria’s rush to complete control over all of Idlib province, Damascus is largely succeeding in controlling two vital highways, although the M4 highway will reportedly be a demilitarised zone, patrolled jointly by Russian and Turkish forces.

Turkey had deployed nearly 10,000 troops and armour into Idlib province and there had been serious clashes resulting in casualties on both Turkish and Syrian sides. In the absence of a ceasefire, a military confrontation involving Russia was a possibility, which neither Ankara nor Moscow wanted.

Syria aside where Russia and Turkey are in serious disagreement, their relations lately had improved markedly, even involving the sale of Russian military hardware to Turkey to the annoyance of NATO, of which Turkey is an important member.Erdogan was trying to create leverage both ways, with Russia and NATO, by seeking to play one against the other. But, apparently,it didn’t do much good.

Another leverage Erdogan has-and he is using it-is to push Syrian and other refugees further into Europe, mostly via Greece. Turkey hosts about 3.5 million refugees, mostly the victims of civil war in Syria. Another million people have been uprooted from the recent Russian-supported push to control Idlib. Those making to the Greece border are finding the door shut, enforced with the use of force by the Greek authorities.

In an earlier phase of the crisis when refugees flooded into Europe,Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel let in more than a million into her country. That created political problems for her within Germany and across the European Union.It led Turkey and the EU to make a deal in 2016, which offered Turkey up to 6 billion Euros to stop pushing Europe-bound refugees/migrants. That had eased the situation considerably.

The Bashar al-Assad regime would have been history if Russia hadn’t intervened in a big way to support the government

Apart from requiring EU/NATO to help it confront the Syrian-Russian push to occupy Idlib, Turkey wants the EU to help it financially to support the large burden of hosting the refugees. Or else, Ankara will open the refugee floodgatesinto Europe. The EU is not happy that Erdogan is using the refugee issue and the Syrian crisis as a political weapon against them. According to France’s Foreign Minister Yves Le Drian, “This migratory pressure is organised President Erdogan’s regime as a form of political blackmail against the European Union.”

But Brussels is aware that Ankara could make things difficult in the EU by pushing refugees into Europe. There were recently talks in Brussels between Turkish President Erdogan and the European Council President Charles Michel. These talks are to be followed up between their respective foreign ministers and their teams.

It would seem that Turkey should get more money and better delivery of the 2016 agreement as the price for it to go easy on refugee influx into Europe. As for the civil war in Syria and the advance into Idlib, Russia might slow down Damascus’s push, since the Assad regime already has much of the control of the vital highways and the surrounding territory.

Erdogan, however, is not happy and would very much like Russia to see things from his perspective, which is that they should ditch Assad. This is not going to happen, and the ceasefire is likely to be shaky.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia