Daily Times

On December 31, 2019, the WHO country office in China was informed of an accumulation of pneumonia in Wuhan. The Chinese authorities identified the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 as the cause of the disease on January 7, 2020.

Outside of China, the number of cases is increasing dramatically, particularly in Italy, Spain, Germany and the United States. In Europe, which is now the epicenter of the corona outbreak, 658,015 people from 53 countries and a further 7 territories are now infected and 30,438 people have died of COVID-19 (as of March 29, 2020 Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University ).

Covid-19 reshaping the global economic crisis:

Comparative to related occurrences in the past, for instance, the SARS outbreak in 2003, the global economy has become significantly more integrated, and China plays a far superior role in global output, trade, travel and commodity markets. Nevertheless, the jolt to the global economy from Covid-19 has been more rapidly and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis.

The world has been changed by this on-going pandemic. It has impacted the whole world much more than the terrorist attack at Twin Towers on September 11, 2001. In the current scenario, the world is not at all afraid of any terrorist outfits; however, the havoc by coronavirus has threatened the globe with terrible consequences. People around the world are locked inside their houses and fearing for their lives if they don’t restrict their movements. Even the superpower like America is sternly struggling to fight with the hidden enemy Covid-19 outbreak in every state. Being the superpower, they were unable to assess the damage that it could bring for the masses. People have fear of an unseen & unfelt enemy that dodge all barrier, respects no border, regard no age, gender or religion.

It is no surprise that the aviation and hotel industry will suffer the maximum from this Covid-19 pandemic. Air Transport Association (IATA), anticipated a likely hit to global aviation revenues of up to $113bn this year. That is one-fifth of last year’s overall revenues and four times higher than IATA estimated in February 2020, when the coronavirus was still believed to be a Chinese problem rather than a global one. At the moment most airlines are frantically trying to preserve cash. Governments are contributing some assistance for their operational survival. Many carriers are also scaling back capital spending by deferring the procurement of new aircraft. Not every airline will endure this pandemic. And if more airlines start to fail, that would have knock-on effects throughout the wide-ranging aviation industry. Thousands of people will lose their jobs in view of this pandemic and subsequent outbreaks in other economies are having comparable effects. Such an uncertain global economic fluctuation persists for some time or in the worst-case scenario for some years.

EU’s powerful yet largest economy Germany was already having dark clouds on its automobile industry since last year and the on-going Covid-19 pandemic added more troubles to the already troubled industry. According to Bloomberg and Financial Times in September 2019, “Amid trade wars and plunging China sales, the number of cars rolling off Germany’s production lines has dropped by 12 percent this year and exports by 14 percent. Sales in Europe’s No. 1 market fell by 0.8 percent in August. Overall European sales fell 9 percent in the same period.”

The German auto industry is in the midst of a far-reaching upheaval,” said Volkswagen chief executive Herbert Diess, whose company is seeking to reinvent itself as a world leader in battery-powered cars. According to him, it is estimated that the German car industry, which directly employs 830,000 people and supports a further 2m in the wider economy, will be forced to plow some €40bn into battery-powered technologies over the next three years.

Massive employees’ layoff was already planned in the automobile industry during the last year 2019 and now the current scenario of Covid-19 will further strengthen and broaden the layoffs sphere, even more severely.

The battle against the hidden enemy Covid-19 is full-on warfare. According to some leaders, the world is in a health war and China seems to have won the first battle. Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan have also marked up visible triumphs in jettisoning the outbreak but it is early to claim that they have won it completely.

In contrast, the worst-hit country other than China in Italy, which has predominantly strong economic ties to China. Currently, Northern Italy is the new Wuhan. If the virus stays longer in major strongest economy countries than the global growth and trade will be much worse and more inescapable as compared to what is predicted.

From Shanghai to Iran to Germany to Italy to Spain and the USA, entire cities and countries are making radical modifications to decelerate the blowout of the coronavirus but the outcome of these drastic changes will be visible after a week or two.

If these strong economics get the success rate within 15 days of quarantine, they will somehow face near-term challenges from this pandemic underlining the need for policy actions to strengthen health care systems, innovate medical infrastructure, boost confidence and demand, and limit adversative supply effects. But one thing which I believe we all learned from this pandemic is to have a robust medical infrastructure, more innovation in the medical industry and readjusting of the defense budget with health and education budget than producing atom bombs and nuclear arsenals for peace.

Naya Pakistan in times of Covid-19 and its consequences:

I know I am not an expert on the subject but what I am observing and experiencing, I believe that people around the world would need to take concrete steps to tackle 3 global issues (including Pakistan):

– Curbing Covid-19 outbreak
– Food scarcity situations for underdeveloped countries
– Global financial meltdown or global depression (next severe hit after or along with the pandemic)

Now, if we talk about Pakistan then it is quite visible that the measures and policies taken by the federal government to curb the spread of the virus are not only sufficient but poorly administrated by the prime minister himself.

Pakistan PM has been taking a firm stand on avoiding the country’s lockdown just because of the eluding negative economic factors for the country as well as considering poor and daily wager situation during these trying times. However, he should understand that the country’s lockdown is the only solution to this outbreak menace and offer some sort of relief or aid package to the daily wagers as it’s one of the government roles to bail out people in difficult circumstances.

In many of his recent press conferences, Imran Khan downplayed the virus by naming it the flu. He should know that world did a mistake by underestimating Covid-19 and now he’s repeating the same mistake knowing its severe consequences over the masses. He hasn’t learned anything from other countries’ responses to containing this virus rapid spread. In addition, there is an evident lack of coordination between federal and provincial governments. The day PM said, he cannot lock down the entire country, provincial governments (Sindh & Balochistan) decided to do it exactly the same day. Punjab government came up with this idea a day later. And then Pakistan Army decided to implement the lockdown countrywide. It is really embarrassing that being the head of the state, there must be a top-down approach after consulting with all key stakeholders including opposition parties, military and civilian authorities. We are in a global crisis and in this critical time, he should and must have an all-party conference to put his confidence on the people and lead as an exemplary leader.

In one of his tweets, he wrote “Not a single coronavirus case imported from China: PM Imran”

This means that China was considerate enough not to send Pakistani students from their country before the required quarantine period. However, unfortunately, one of the key factors for Pakistan’s rapid Covid-19 spread is connected to the people coming from Iran and quarantined at Taftan. Once again the federal government and its leadership failed miserably and showed inefficiency in tackling this global menace and putting people in inhumane and inimical quarantine at the Taftan region and let it spread throughout the country.

We all know it will spread and spread fast but the only solution is to have partial or complete lock-down through which you can achieve social distancing. There is a visible threat that the situation would be curved out of proportion if restrictions on the movement of people were not imposed. Unlike the federal government, the provincial governments particularly the Sindh government has shown a great amount of political maturity and sensibility to tackle the overall situation before it gets out of hand completely. What Imran Khan must had done for its people, Provincial Minister Murat Ali Shah did it for the greater good. We hope that the Prime Minister Imran Khan will take this crisis as serious as WHO, stock markets, powerful economies and governments are handling it. Because of the globalization effect, Pakistan is no exception in this Covid-19 episode. It will also hit hard by this pandemic and many industries will be unable to absorb the global and national financial shocks. Thousands of people will be forced to lay off by their employers and the market will see uncertainties for a longer period of time.

Post-Pandemic World:

The post-Covid-19 world depends on the range of drivers but it is creating a dynamic situation around the globe. Currently, the public life is largely at rest, many doors are closed, the houses are tightly full, and there is a yawning emptiness everywhere. What is still relevant today can already be outdated tomorrow. Nobody knows what will come and how long the new virus and all its consequences will have a grip on society. Recession risk is real and sooner or later, we will be experiencing the global financial meltdown since major economies have recorded trillion dollars losses in the last couple of weeks. We all will witness global unemployment depression, we all will observe slow or no markets growth and vulnerabilities of major powerful economies, we all will see that people will go bankrupt and some countries would not be able to absorb post-pandemic financial shocks.

But one thing we all need to understand that “life is so fragile” and we all have to fight this virus together.

The writer is a CSCP in an international organziation. He is an active social welfare volunteer. He is also a seasonal photographer, enthusiast cricketer and a music devotee. He tweets as @MohammadNavyd