Daily Times

In strategy, a threat is normally mitigated by placing a response of equal intensity on the same plane where the threat exists. But, in case of a threat, where it is global and completely non-traditional in nature, no response seems to be sufficient enough to completely alleviate the threat.While the humanity combined has launched a full-fledged war against corona virus, unfortunately it is still a defensive battle for the sapiens. As reflected by the causalities inflicted by COVID-19, the response from developed or developing nations seems to be equally good or equally bad since both remain similarly vulnerable to the contagion. The pandemic is ruthlessly claiming territories irrespective of the geography of nations. While we are still learning about it, the virus is proliferating further persistently. It seems that it will take some time for humanity to claim victory in the battle against the unseen enemy. However, whenever this episode would be over, the world would no longer remain the same. It is going to affect our social, economic and even political environment in a great way. It has prompted governments around the world to shut down cities, industries and cease activities in a bidto slow the spread of the disease.It appears that when this will be over, no country including ours would be rolling again smoothly as it will leave damages which cannot be completely comprehended at present.

From a daily waged labor to airline pilot, from senior management of a hotel to a cook working in kitchen, it is going to cost something to every one. In Pakistan, so far we haven’t been able to lay out a potential scenario. Government intervention has started but so far government seems to be alone. The INGOs, NGOs, CSOs and NPOs are still calculating their intervention carefully. Since government in Islamabad has a certain negative attitude towards NGOs / INGOs these days, thus it will take time for these organizations to step forth with confidence. Similarly philanthropists and their organizations are also not sure how to play their role since any wrong calculation at their end would glow a blip of FBR radar and alert agencies including the accountability bureau. As always provincial governments through local administration have already requisitioned troops in aid of civil power. Army will do everything, whatever it takes but without any financial or technical injection. Besides assisting civil government, military would have to undertake the arduous challenge of minimizing the impacts of the virus on strategic mission readiness. While Pentagonwould receive $8.3 billion to prepare against COVID 19, military in Pakistan would have to undertake the task without any financial dose. Well we cannot compare ourselves with US which will be spending $45.8 billion to fight the pandemic, but we cannot relegate the fact that our odds and risk are same as that of US, thus comes the comparison. Military units always remain prepared and mobilize within few hours to assist the civil government in unforeseen situations. But in this case military units have nothing such as a “Pandemic Plan”. So, with the contagion growing, Pakistan also needs to grow its resources as well as get creative in devising strategy to handle the situation.

Government’s particularly in countries like ours, where access to health system is a privilege for the majority, humanitarian operations cannot be conducted alone by the country’s state machinery

Threat posed by COVID has spilled over several sectors. From education to businesses, it has affected the society badly. Its consequences on individuals, small business and corporations and the government itself cannot be forecasted as yet. There are no mathematical examples to demonstrate the potential risk.However it is clear that the virus has imposed and demandeda sustained war to be waged against it.The threat has brought a realization that no government, no matter how politically strong it is, can tackle a threat like this one alone. It is task way beyond any government’s capability and capacity. Government’sparticularly in countries like ours, where access to health system is a privilege for the majority, humanitarian operations cannot be conducted alone by the country’s state machinery. Leaving the complete response aside, government will have to run from pillar to post just to ensure law and order besides making sure thatcommodities of daily utility remain available in market. People will get unemployed every passing hour, businesses will close and private sector will not be able to accommodate non-working labor on their payrolls. Even developed countries are estimating that about 20 percent of their population with jobs will lose their employment. Our unemployment figures are otherwise very high even without the COVID factor.

Our current strategies to tackle this are notexclusive; in fact, an ideal approach is required incorporate elements of multiple strategies. The strategy shouldinclude the agent-based research approach, the capabilities-basedapproach, the intelligence-based approach, and futures prediction approach.Given the complexity of biodefense against this threat, an effective strategymust address both traditional and nontraditional approaches. The response has to be in unison and synergy with government agencies, non-profit organization and private partners all pulled together to initiate non-profit programs, finding more collaborating partners, bringing in donations and employing volunteers. In order to have a frame work in this regard, government should be thinking on introducing legislation to synchronize the response by all stake holders.Political reconciliation and unity would be necessary for enacting such legislation. A task force may be formed to provide ideas to federal, provincial and local governments for how to prepare; such as recommendinghow to increase patient capacity, recommend appropriate regulatory changes to accomplish these things etc. I believe that Pakistan as a resilient nation, is creative, ingenious and resolute enough to come out of this crises with victory over this latest predicament.

The writer is versatile analyst and speaker on contemporary issues