Daily Times

With the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) once again embroiled in a row to bring the powerful under the rule of law, and hurtling towards an anti-corruption movement, it could be set to lose confidence among the people and the establishment. And hence the attention may turn to the position of the PTI leader, Imran Khan. An open invitation for the nation to join the Tehreek-e-Ehtesab against the incumbent government for accountability of the powerful and authorised leaders is a challenge at the expense of another political failure. But is change really within Khan’s grasp? Political analysts say the system is against him. Both the main parties — the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party — have patronage of feudal landlords who control the vote bank of large areas of rural population. The establishment seems keen, at this stage, to just play the divide-and-rule card among the major national political parties.

As virulently disliked by many opposition parliamentarians as he is adored by young people who voted him in a ‘shock’ victory in the last general elections, Khan has faced threats and rumours of failure almost since the moment he took office. The question is if he does not have the convincing chance to be the prime minister in 2018 elections, would that year mark the start of his political demise. The answer still is: probably not. Despite persistently bad write-ups in the press, Khan’s popularity among party members who would likely make up the majority of voters in any leadership contest has remained strong. And even though the party position apart from Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is ambiguous, many observers think it would be difficult to keep him off the pedestal against his will.

Nonetheless, rumours of potential moves against the leadership abound. One recurring theory is that once the upcoming protest against the Panama leak corruption scandal is out of the way, Khan’s opponents could begin working in earnest. So if Khan were to be pushed out or were to leave on his own — which he never would — who would take his place?

The qualifications for the seat at the top of the table are formidably high. But as far as Khan’s inner circle is concerned, he has surrounded himself with a knowledgeable team of advisers featuring some of Pakistan’s most successful, powerful and influential men. One of them is one of Pakistan’s wealthiest industrialists; another is a highly successful businessman; the third one is one of the country’s best-known political campaigners, and the fourth one is one of the highest paid economists in Pakistan.

Khan and Jahangir Tareen — a fellow parliamentarian who currently serves as the financial chief — already effectively run joint leadership. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a key ally of Khan and his foreign affairs spokesperson, also attended Aitchison College like Khan. He was Khan’s shadow in Punjab until his fellow political stalwart Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar emerged on the Punjab scene. He may have been seen as the successor if the PTI leader had to give up his position; however, he is known to have publically criticised Sarwar, and his primary supporter, Tareen, in not so distant past.

The background script was written in May 2015 when Khan dissolved the organisational structure of the party following the recommendations of the former election commissioner, Justice (Retd) Wajihuddin Ahmad. Justice Ahmad stated in his report that he had found flaws in the previous intra-party elections that were held before the last general elections.

Following reorganisation, Sarwar was made the chief organiser for all of Punjab, a decision that was obviously not appreciated by Qureshi. As a result, Khan divided Punjab into two regions, and handed over the task of party organisation in the north to Sarwar, and the southern divisions of the province to Qureshi. Although Sarwar accepted the party leadership’s orders, in private, he expressed his dismay about the role of his assignment.

Since then both sides have kept their grudges silently open against each other. It is acknowledged that a disagreement between party leaders is part of the democratic process, and is common in truly democratic parties in which leaders have their own viewpoints on different issues. However, there is a problem in leadership when personalities have an on-going dislike of each other.

The 63-year-old Asad Umar, now PTI’s senior vice-president and election organiser, is the only likely contender whose views mostly align with Khan’s. Umar was the chief executive of Engro, one of Pakistan’s biggest conglomerates, and, reportedly, the country’s best-paid professional. Between 2004 and 2012 he raised the company revenues from £94 million to £768 million. If the PTI comes into power with Khan as the leader, Umar is most likely to fill the post of minister of commerce. This may not be what PTI sees but it is what is recognised by observers: Umar will find a clear lead in a theoretical leadership race that did not include Khan. His socialist politics align with that of Khan’s politics unsullied by a career largely free of corruption when he took office in the PTI with a strong tactical sense also like Khan.

Often outdoing his leader’s casual chic by turning up for interviews and speeches in a shabby shalwar-kameez, Umar has worked harder than most PTI leaders to keep the party’s focus on structural changes, especially his insistence on austerity and bringing power down to the grassroots level. This is where the focus of his politics is rather than on foreign and defence issues. He has sought to develop an intelligent and astute economist position. For his part though, he would insist he has no intention whatsoever of taking over his party leader.

While there could still be a few surprise candidates to come forth who may potentially throw their names in the ring to replace Khan, it is an intriguing thought to consider how the PTI would settle on a candidate who is not Imran Khan.

The writer is a professor of psychiatry and consultant forensic psychiatrist in the UK. He can be contacted at fawad_shifa@yahoo.com