Daily Times

Afghanistan is currently ruled by two presidents’ -one with international endorsements and the other with domestic support from a large segment of ethnic groups and political elite.

This is happening amid America’s effort to push the Afghan peace process into the second phase of the intra-Afghan dialogue. However, the discord being paraded by Afghanistan’s political elite over petty political gains shows the extent of greed that has defied any peace efforts in the country over the last twenty years. By all standards, Afghanistan’s political elite has become the worst enemy of peace in Afghanistan. Most of the politicians attending two presidential ceremonies just survived an attack a few days ago and still decided to support a divided Afghanistan.

Up until last week, Ashraf Ghani was averse to any discussions on the release of the Afghan prisoners. He palpably refused to endorse the deal signed by the US with the Taliban. “What do I get in return,” were the words of Ghani in an interview following the peace deal. However, in a space of a few days, he not only agreed to fully endorse the agreement but also signed a verdict to release 5000 Afghan Taliban members.

After Pakistan’s endorsement of Ghani as Afghanistan’s president, Kabul must act on its promises to limit terrorist groups such as TTP’s sanctuaries in Afghanistan

All of this didn’t happen because Ghani calculated the decision in Afghanistan’s best interest; rather this transpired due to the United States and other regional states support for his regime. What Ghani has ignored in this calculation is that his aspiration to stay in power at all costs is going to lead Afghanistan into a phase where Kabul’s political elite will not have much leverage against the Taliban in the intra-Afghan process.

Moreover, in Afghanistan, a leader without domestic political support or legitimacy doesn’t last long. That is where the Taliban have made immense gains over the last few months. The entire world saw the Taliban signing a peace deal from Afghanistan without the presence of a single person from the government.It sends a clear message to the Afghans about who is in control of the country’s political future and fate. For the provinces where the Taliban have ruled, the group’s deal is nothing less than the defeat of the Soviet Union about thirty decades ago.

Ghani and Abdullah’s squabbling over the question of who will rule Kabul at a time when Taliban were negotiating the American troops withdrawal from the country, only manifests one thing: Kabul regime’s legitimacy domestically and Internationally has come under serious pressure and no one can expect implementation of any resolution in the country without the support or endorsement of Afghan Taliban.

Arguably, the Taliban appear to be acting more rationally than Kabul’s political elite. The group has been fighting against the Islamic State (ISIS) in Afghanistan more successfully than any other actor including the Afghan forces. No wonder, the United States is supplying the Taliban intelligence and other material support to tackle the group’s presence in various regions of the county.

For the regional states, Afghan Taliban appear to be doing more to restrict militant groups such as the Tahrek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). After Pakistan’s endorsement of Ghani as Afghanistan’s president, Kabul must act on its promises to limit terrorist groups such as TTP’s sanctuaries in Afghanistan. It’s possible that Pakistan’s policymaking community already conveyed this to the parties involved in the process particularly Zalmay Khalilzad that Islamabad expects an action against TTP that operates from areas held by President Ghani’s forces.

As of now, it’s unclear if the intra-Afghan process will begin at all with Abdullah declaring himself President of Afghanistan. For Abdullah, it would have been easier to negotiate with Ghani or the Americans had he not declared himself President. One cannot deny the fact that the recent Presidential election had serious irregularities and Abdullah was not given any space in the new government when it comes to sharing actual power. This situation has led to an extreme position on the part of Abdullah and the likely implications are going to be acute for the Intra-Afghan peace process.

America has already started withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. It’s expected that President Trump will continue to remove troops from the country as the election season nears in the United States. Essentially this means that Afghan are left with a situation where an international stakeholder has found some sort of face-saving in the form of an agreement with the Taliban and would leave irrespective of how the Afghan political leadership acts in the months to come.

This leaves regional states, particularly Pakistan, with stakes in Afghanistan peace in a tricky situation. Pakistan has gone out of the way to facilitate the peace process and the last thing the country wants is another civil war on its borders. It’s only in Pakistan’s national interest that the Afghan peace process concluded successfully with Afghanistan’s leadership taking responsibility rather than making a way for another conflict with regional implications.

The writer is Coordinator, Research Division, The Nerve Center