Daily Times

Given prevailing tensions, it should perhaps come as no surprise that Pakistan’s export level to Afghanistan is not looking good. Present figures indicate that for the current financial year we are looking at a drop of around a third as compared to just six years ago. This should give cause for alarm. For trade and economic ties withstand many a turbulent relationship. That, after all, is the so-called beauty of the global capitalist system, as we know it.

So what is going on?

Well, for a start, the repeated border closures and the incessant back and forth of accusations have created an environment not at all conducive to trade. The former prevents traders from getting their goods across the border on time, and in the case of perishable goods such as fruits and vegetables — these delays severely hurt small farmers and businesses on both sides of the now great divide. The current lack of trust has additionally derailed several economic initiatives, such as the Joint Business Council that was launched back in 2015 to bolster ties between the two nations.

Falling levels of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan threaten to kick start a vicious cycle that will only further damage relations between the two countries. In today’s neo-liberal world order, trade is the thread that has held together disparate nations and maintained peace. As Pakistan and Afghanistan repeatedly fail to look eye to eye on most things — the fact that bilateral trade is falling means both countries are losing a tool that would best equip them to strengthen the bilateral relationship. This comes at a time when this country has adopted an increasingly tough stance on Afghan refugees and when, for its part, Kabul has become even more vocal in protesting Islamabad’s alleged affording of safe-havens within its borders to Afghan militant groups wanting to overthrow the regime back in their own country. In such circumstances, the two countries cannot afford to let their economic ties collapse.

The trend, however, seems to suggest that bilateral trade levels will continue to fall. The recent inauguration of the air corridor between Afghanistan and India highlights landlocked Afghanistan’s policy of completely bypassing Pakistan, and using India’s shores to start exporting goods. Afghanistan has always had to rely on Karachi to gain access to the sea, but the air corridor shows just how far the Kabul regime is willing to go in not relying on Islamabad anymore. Moreover, once the construction of Chabahar port in Iran is complete, Afghanistan will likely consider Pakistan increasingly irrelevant to meeting its economic needs.

Thus we cannot sufficiently stress that the re-establishing of trade and bolstering economic ties are vital to ensuring political stability in the region. Pakistan must realise that it cannot use strategic depth to influence another country’s policies. Afghanistan, for its part, must also recognise that ostracising Pakistan when it comes to any initiatives for peace at home is beyond futile. Lasting peace will only have a real chance if both sides share the costs and vow to protect one another’s interests. Let us hope that pragmatism, if nothing else, prevails.  *

Published in Daily Times, June 21st, 2017.