Disease X: a pandemic?

Author: Nabila Chauhdry

The generation gap is a nightmare for parents in today’s world. I frequently find myself sharing the strange media interests of my kids in order to stay updated about their world. The other day I was watching a movie titled World War Z. Not being a big fan of Zombies, I didn’t enjoy it that much, but the words spoken by the protagonist at the end of the movie sent chills down my spine. He said, “It’s not the end, it’s just the beginning. We should be prepared for everything in future.” In the perspective of the current increasing risk of the “pandemic” of coronavirus, these words penetrated the fears in my subconsciousness.

Medical experts and researchers might differ on the use of the word “pandemic”, but historically, mankind has faced many diseases that spread out of the geographic areas known for or expected to have those diseases. According to WHO, an “epidemic” can be defined as a significantly larger number of cases of a disease than the expected number. Pandemic, on the other hand, is derived from the Greek work pandemos, which means “everyone”. Pandemic is used to describe the worldwide spread of a disease.

In 1850s,the pandemic of cholera affected Asia, America, Africa and Europe, and took the lives of approximately one million people. In the second decade of 1900, the deadly pandemic of influenza took lives of three to five million people, affecting one-third of the globe. The most recent pandemic was of influenza that killed thousands of people worldwide. Other deadly diseases like HIV and Ebola virus took thousands of lives but were concentrated in certain areas.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) released a list of prioritised diseases in 2015. These diseases were identified based on a special tool. The tool has been developed to identify pathogens that have the potential of taking the form of an epidemic; there are insufficient or no measures for fighting against those pathogens. Nine elements are given in the tool to determine which pathogens and diseases could be prioritised. These elements included: human transmissibility, severity, spillover potential, evolutionary potential, available counter measures, public health context of affected areas, potential scope of outbreak and potential societal impacts.

For developing a realistic and vigilant research and development blueprint to counter diseases in emergencies, WHO keeps revising this priority list of diseases. In 2017 and 2019, the list was revised using a prioritising methodology. In the latest one, apart from known diseases like Congo fever, Ebola virus, Lassa fever, and Zika, there is another entry that is titled “Disease X”.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General WHO, said that COVID-19 has yet not been given the status of a pandemic

Disease X is used for a knowable unknown pathogen that can become an epidemic in future but is currently unknown as a human disease. This term was coined for any presently unknown epidemic that could potentially affect different regions of the world. WHO’s blueprint of research and development has been prepared to ensure that there is a cross cutting preparedness for facing an unknown epidemic, a Disease X, in the best way possible.

Western media has started using Disease X for the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus. This outbreak has been declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO. But during a press briefing, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director General WHO, said that COVID-19 has yet not been given the status of a pandemic. Although it has created global concern its geographical spread has not reached the level to be classified as pandemic. According to Ghebreyesus, currently, it is not being observed as an uncontained or a deadly disease, and therefore, presently, it is not considered a pandemic.

There are many myths and speculations about the novel coronavirus, renamed COVID-19,relayed on social and mainstream media, especially about its signs, symptoms and treatment. The website of WHO clearly indicates that people of all ages can get affected by cornoavirus; people having a previous medical history can be more prone to getting severely affected; there is no medicine, to date, for prevention from coronavirus; and effectiveness of herbal treatments like use of garlic or sesame oil do not have a medical backing. Thermal scanners can only check the increased body temperature (fever in the infected person), but it cannot identify all infected people as the incubation period for the virus is two to ten days.

According to WHO guidelines, more effective measures for protection against COVID-19 are: washing hands frequently with soap and water, maintaining a distance of three feet from a person who is coughing or sneezing, not touching eyes, nose or mouth with dirty hands, and using tissue paper while coughing or sneezing.

Marie Curie said, “We share general responsibility for all humanity, and our particular duty is to aid those to whom we think we can be most useful.” Difficult times help nations to rejuvenate their sense of identity and unity. It is the need of the hour to fight this prevailing fear of coronavirus with correct information, taking required preventive measures, taking steps for collective good, and supporting government in its efforts.

The writer is Director Programmes and Projects at Rising Sun Education and Welfare Society

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