President Trump’s India visit: some pluses for Pakistan

Author: Col (R) Muhammad Hanif

President Donald Trump visited India from 24 to 25 February 2020. The first day of the visit was marked by Trump’s reception event in the form of a road showof men and women made to stand on the roadside from Ahmedabad airport to the Motera cricket stadium.In the stadium, both Trump and Modi also addressed a big gathering.During their speeches, Mr. Trump and Modi showered praises on each other and on their respective countries, and talked about building the US-India relations to the level of Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.

As per the Economic Times of India dated 24 February 2020, in his address, Trump also stated, “the US looks forward to providing India with some of the best and most feared military equipment on the planet. Trump also said, “We will defend our sovereignty, security, and protect a free and open Indo-Pacific region”.

However, the surprising thing for the Modi and the audience was that during his speech,Mr. Trump stated,” Our relations with Pakistan are very good and we are fighting terrorism in the region in coordination, and Pakistan. And, Pakistan has done a lot in successfully fighting the terrorists. He further added that we are hopeful for reduced tensions, greater stability, and the future of harmony for all of the nations of South Asia.

Trump’s visit it appears that the US has also ultimately realized that to keep peace and influence in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Middle East, keeping good relations with Pakistan is also strategically important

On the second day of the visit, bilateral talks were held in New Delhi and as per the Business Standards India dated 25 February 2020 and the BBC News dated 26 February 2020, three memorandums of understanding (MoUs) were signed, regarding mental health, the safety of medical products, and energy cooperation. Defence deals were also signed for the sale of worth US $ 3 billion, 24 M-60 helicopters and 6 Apache helicopters to India.

On the second day, during a press conference, President Trump also openly stated that Kashmir is the main issue between Pakistan and India and once again he offered his mediation.He said that he will do whatever he could do to resolve the Kashmir dispute. In a response to a question, President Trump also praised Prime Minister Imran Khan and stated that he had good relations with him.

As also commented in the Guardian dated 26 February 2020 and the above quoted BBC News, Trump’s visit to India, and Modi and Trump’s speeches and their press conferences on 24 and 25 February 2020 focused on the mere optics,aimed at boosting the Trump’s image,for his second term elections and Modi neededto boost his falling image in India due to his lockdown in Kashmir and theenactment of the discriminatory CAA.

Pakistan has no doubt that theUS is keen to court India as a close defence partner in the context of its Indo-Pacific policy, and Modi is focusing on modernizing the Indian military by getting the modern US military weapon systems. And, despite that US is aware that India may not fully cooperate with it against China, the US still likes to strengthen India militarily to make it a self competing power with China. But, from Trump’s visit it appears that the US has also ultimately realized that to keep peace and influence in Afghanistan, Central Asia and Middle East, keeping good relations with Pakistan is also strategically important.

In view of the above discussion, Trump’s India visit indicates following positives for Pakistan. Trump’s praise of PM Imran Khan, his praise of Pakistan for successfully fighting terrorism, his open statement that Kashmir is a major problem between Pakistan and India, repeating his offer of mediation on Kashmirmean that he wanted to tell India that Pakistan was also important to the US in its strategic calculation.

By offering the mediation on Kashmir once again, Trump has also indicated to India that despite India’s actions taken on 5 August 2020 about declaring Kashmir as its internal issue, it still remains a major international dispute between Pakistan and India. He has also indicated to India that to keep good relations with both Pakistan and India, it is necessary that the Kashmir dispute should be amicably resolved.

By stating that Pakistan has done a lot to fight terrorism in coordination with the US, he acknowledged Pakistan’s contribution in facilitating the US-Afghan peace talks. Also, by discussing the likely US-Afghan peace deal with India, he indicated to Modi thatfor peace in Afghanistan it is necessary to involve the Taliban and Pakistan’s role for peace in Afghanistan is also necessary.

In view of the above discussion, Pakistan should build on this evolving strategic thinking of the US, and strengthen its military and economic relations with the superpower. And, Pakistan should use President Trump’s recognition of the Kashmir as a major dispute between Pakistan and India, and his mediation offeron the issue, to internationalize it. It should also continue to ask the US to support the Kashmir solution by asking India to start a meaningful and result oriented dialogue with Pakistan on Kashmir.

The writer is a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow of Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad]

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