Daily Times

This year Afghanistan’s 97th independence anniversary in August passed with a sense of concern for this nation. The security situation in Afghanistan portrays a rather bleak picture than ever before, defying all solutions. This is rather worrisome for the neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan. There is a heavy presence of the Taliban on the outskirts of Lashkar Gah, the principal city in the Helmand province. Recently, the Taliban have again gained a significant presence in the northern province of Kunduz. There have been two major terror attacks in Kabul, including one on the American University. The situation is the making of more than 35 years of foreign intervention in Afghanistan, an intervention started by the USSR in 1979 for strategic, ideological and military purposes.

In these difficult times India is trying to exert its presence with a greater force, further adding to instability. Interpreting events from the recent Afghan history, countries entering Afghanistan often find it difficult to exit with any ease from this mountainous, dry, windswept country. We in Pakistan have to be watchful of the grave situation being created by India there, as it impacts us rather seriously.

A new threat in Afghanistan is the Islamic State (IS). Fighters from IS are showing an increasing presence in the Nangarhar province. The US army has recently claimed to have killed 300 militants belonging to IS. The presence of IS remains a fact to be reckoned, as they are shifting to other Afghan provinces.

The Afghan army is finding it difficult to hold on in the face of threats; the Afghan government finds it difficult to extend its writ to the entire country. In spite of the presence of US military advisers, and combat and air support aiding the Afghan army in the battle, news is not encouraging for the Afghan government. The Afghan army is thinly spread, weak and ill-prepared, and cannot effectively contain the insurgency. The lack of institution-building in the Afghan army is evident from the recent insider attack by two Afghan army soldiers, killing 12 soldiers in the Kunduz province. At this stage, India has started to interfere more intensely in Afghanistan, defying all sense of reason and logic. India ought to realise that historically, Afghanistan is most comfortable whenever it has remained neutral and free from foreign intervention.

During World War II, the sagacious policy of neutrality of King Zahir Shah kept Afghanistan away from the way of harm. At the end of the war, Afghanistan had large foreign exchange reserves of $100 million earned through trade, a large surplus for the war-torn global economy of that time. In one way, the present troubles of Afghanistan can be traced to the post World War II enthusiasm of many developing countries for ‘modernisation’ and development through infrastructure projects. Both the US and the USSR were invited for economic development of Afghanistan, envisioning a ‘modern’ country. That was a misplaced priority, rather, a course that was to spell disaster in the coming years, and which still continues today. The ill-conceived economic development plan was to turn sour for many reasons, and people only were to know misery.

The Kajaki Dam in the Helmand province was started in 1949 by a US firm, and was later funded by US’s aid. The construction of the dam disturbed the ecological, cultural and economic life of the people. Thoughtless and bureaucratic relocation of the population and land redistribution system in the Helmand province resulted in riots. Many infrastructure projects funded by both the US and USSR unnecessarily interfered with the established tribal customs and traditions, causing societal unrest. King Zahir Shah had to abdicate in 1973; he was overthrown by the visionless, then prime minister, Mohammad Daoud Khan. Afghanistan was deprived of a sagacious leader. What followed was more turmoil, coups and assassinations, leading to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979.

Helmand since centuries was producing the famous Karakul sheep, known worldwide for its wool and hide. The Kajaki Dam only brought misfortune to the independent and proud herdsmen, and subsequently, misfortune to the whole of Afghanistan. These once proud herdsmen were forced to abandon their herds and a life of freedom and travel, and forced to convert into unwilling agriculturists. Helmand now is at the centre of the fiercest militancy.

Now when Afghans are trying hard to find peace on their own terms, India is trying to use development projects for strategic gains. The model of gaining strategic gains through economic projects was employed by the erstwhile USSR. Such a flawed model created huge problems for the USSR; it had a difficult time staying, and still more difficult time extracting itself from Afghanistan, a country that was termed later by the Soviets as their bleeding wound. India in 1980 became the first country in South Asia to give diplomatic recognition to the Soviet-installed government in Afghanistan.

Due to the unsatisfactory security situation, now spreading over more than 35 years, the struggling formal economy is mostly confined to the major cities. Investments by India defy a sense of economic reasoning. One such futile project is the Salma Dam in the Herat province. The location of the Salma Dam is heavily controlled by militants, and the Indian government-owned firm constructing the dam had to pay militants to secure transportation of men and material. Such payments encourage proxy wars in the region. Due to a poor law and order situation in the area of the Herat province where the Salma Dam is located, there is truly no possibility in the near future of maintaining the transmission lines and the irrigation network, if at all such a system is completed. Such an attitude of India reminds one of the erstwhile Soviet Union’s pattern of mindless investments and intervention, which damaged the Soviet Union and the host country. The Salma Dam would deprive Iran of 75 percent of the water from the Hari Rud River.

In the last 35 years, Afghanistan has gone through many sufferings. It is truly sad how this country that had respect for its culture and traditions was made to suffer due to a mirage of economic growth through foreign interventions; the economic models of growth of the 1950s did not suit the culture, society and the ecology of the region. The ever-increasing presence of India seems like the beginning of a new era cold war, which might again trigger many more years of suffering for the populations of the region, including India itself, which is besieged with many issues of its own.

The political situation in Afghanistan is the result of external influence that has always destabilised Afghanistan and, in turn, adversely impacted Pakistan. Approximately, four million refugees are living in Pakistan since 1979. A significant number of these refuges might never be willing to return because they feel their lives are established here. Pakistan has suffered tremendously since 1979, and there is no parallel to this suffering. An entire generation has just passed watching peace to happen, always hearing the phrase “peace is at hand.” And peace never happened.

Afghanistan is of concern to all the countries in the region. Militants are challenging the Afghan army, and the writ of the Afghan government lacks in many rural areas; almost 25 percent of the rural areas are under the influence of militants. This is a threat not only to the Afghan government but a threat to peace, prosperity and democracy itself. Over the last 15 years, the US and NATO have spent nearly one trillion dollars in Afghanistan, committing their air forces and 150,000 troops, yet the situation is for all to see. All types and manner of solutions have been tried in Afghanistan, yet peace is a distant dream.

In spite of all these facts it is still not clear the role India envisions for itself in Afghanistan.

The writer is a former member of the police service of Pakistan, and can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com