Daily Times

In my earlier column “Rapprochement of convenience” (published July 15, 2019), I mentioned a report titled “Mapping Global Future Report of National Intelligence Council”. It was produced by ‘National Intelligence Council – 2020 Project and published in 2004asthe council’s third unclassified report. The document was thought to be a reasonable forecast which gave an excellent overview of expert conventional wisdom on the major trends shaping global politics and economics. The report painted four fictional scenarios regarding the looks of the world in future. It would be appropriate to see how the US governmental or non-governmental think tanks saw today’s world back then.

“Davos World” was the first scenario discussed in the report that identified a rising Asia. Report predicted that China and India would be leading the economic growth and carrying forward agenda of globalization. The scenario seems a reality as far as China is concerned since the red country has shown off-balancing strength it has carried in its manufacturing base. India though may not be so lucky so far but seems to be aspiring for a future which was predicted in the report. The second scenario was about “Pax-Americana” i.e., the political face of emerging Asia may dislocate the heavy weights of international politics. Though USA have also lost considerable grounds, but it still carries balancing acts in conflicting situation. However, this seems to be a maturing scenario for the Washington since American foreign policy does not seem to be in the driving seat of global politics anymore; though it may still be navigating the global issues where it can. When two balanced or somewhat equal waited powers are up in conflict, whosoever enjoys US support still gets an upper-hand. So, for USA, reduction of power, as envisaged, can be felt accompanied by some balancing leverage. The third scenario is “A New Caliphate”, surely this we all have seen with our own eyes, the effects of which are only too difficult to comprehend and get control of, yet USA’s fictional scenario has turned out to be a reality. However it is the fourth scenario that worries one the most.

The fourth scenario was about the “Cycle of Fear”, i.e., a reign of terror produced by the underworld helping ideologically motivated Muslim groups to use a WMD of nuclear or biological catastrophe in Europe, America, Middle East or Asia

The fourth scenario was about the “Cycle of Fear”, i.e., a reign of terror produced by the underworld helping ideologically motivated Muslim groups to use a WMD of nuclear or biological catastrophe in Europe, America, Middle East or Asia. In another article “Next Terrorist Atrocity” written by Brian Cloughley the detonation sights of a dirty bomb have also been proposed to the terrorists, for the most likely hit. The sight would be highly populous and a cosmopolitan hub; Cloughley indicated such as cities of “Delhi and Karachi”. Imaginable detonation in any of the two nuclear states will have uncontrollable consequences. This fourth scenario has been theme of Indian propaganda against Pakistan. It has been used as a pretext to by Washington to whip Pakistan on several fronts including FATF in recent years. It was observed both by Islamabad and Rawalpindi that US keeps Pakistan pushing to prove her security against handful of sponsored militias in rags. People in Rawalpindi rightly rejected the assumption that Taliban may take over Pakistan’s nukes, which was as absurd idea as the fear that Mexican Drug cartels established in Arizona or Texas or some retired disgruntled CIA (Retired Extremely Dangerous : RED) guys seizing US Strategic assets. Or as animated in Hollywood movies, may be with connivance of former KGB or MI-6 they would even seize White House. Common people in Pakistan thought that Uncle Sam who is an expert in knitting conspiracy theories needs to be wiser in this regard. I remember telling my American class fellows that Washigton’s fears might come true in their own country if US ignores own loopholes in security fabric. So US should stop looking for a threat from outside and try to see if the threat already exists in her very guts.

The fourth scenario could also have scared Chinese easily since Beijing remains sensitive to ETIM (East Turkistan Islamic Movement). The scenario of religious terrorists or ethnic Baloch separatist attempting to break Chinese ‘necklace of pearls’ could have harmed CPEC and other Chinese investments a great deal. However, this never happened since Beijing did a reality check and due diligence before investing into Pakistan. For Pakistan, there was none other than this scenario that could set the ball rolling for Greater Baluchistan as dreamed by many. So, this scenario was challenged aggressively. However, Islamabad I think this scenario and fears of its manifestation has served vested effectively by coercing Islamabad into complete submission for a long time.

It is 2020 now and we have not seen the fourth scenario unfolding. I believe it never will in years or decades to come. So we should look forward to a new report now that may look into next decade or beyond. At present nothing can explain US policy in South Asia region. ‘We are going out’ no ‘we are staying back’, one step outwards many inwards that seems to be US policy in Afghanistan. In fact this has been the policy for the last 16 years. It appears that the war economy in Afghanistan comprising of corrupt Afghan regime and US war bureaucracy are sucking US tax-payers money from this longest ever US war. They don’t want this war to end. However, Pakistan has completed its end of the bargain by clearing its ground from organized terrorist outfits, while paying a heavy price in terms of losses to human life and property, with its meager resources. In the meantime US with its NATO and Indian allies, with deep pockets, could not achieve the same results in Afghanistan. In the face of poor commitment, having lot of financial burden, fighting an aimless and endless war, Trumps ‘America First’ slogan has gone down the drain. Now America is thinking of doing something against Iran. Not far away in Korean Peninsula the trumpeted policy of USA has also suffered a multifarious failure too. Under these circumstances, even a greeter at a super store in America knows that USA has no military options against Pyongyang or Tehran. I am keen in learning about new scenarios being projected in days to come. I and am even more interested to see how these scenarios would be used to implement Washington’s policy around the world.

The writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues