Daily Times

The killing of General Qasem Soleimani by the US was based on the miscalculation that Iran would not retaliate directly. However, the brave response of Iran challenged the writ of the superpower and left Trump with only two options: either to invade Iran or absorb the embarrassment and shame brought by it. He chose the second option, keeping in view the grave consequences of the war for the world and American interests there. His move of stepping back from the war deserves appreciation.

Yet, he needs to be punished by the Senate during his recent impeachment process for his cowardly attack on the Iranian General and the miscalculation that tarnished the image of the US around the globe.

If Trump had chosen the option of invasion, the catastrophic consequences of the war for the US and the rest of the world would have ranged from the revival of the Islamic State (IS) terrorists, formerly called ISIS, collapse of global economy, burning of Middle East, surging of militancy in the region to squandering of American resources in presence of economic challenge posed by China.

The war would have created a fertile ground for the revival of the ISIS. One of the operations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force was directly against it. In collaboration with Quds Force, Iraq succeeded in dismantling its structure to a larger extent. The US-Iranian war, under these circumstances, would have diverted the attention of Quds Force from the ISIS to the US. As a result, it would have got a golden opportunity to regain its strength and appear on the screen with even a greater force threatening the security of the region.

Iran, through its proxies, would have continued to wrack mayhem against American interests for years to come giving birth to the fresh militancy in the region

The war would have collapsed the global economy by raising the price of crude oil. Around 20 per cent of the global oil passes from the “Strait of Hormuz,” (a narrow sea passage located in the proximity of Iran). During the crisis, Iran has both potential and capacity to block this passage using its mines and anti-ship missiles. Besides, Iran can also cut the Saudi’s oil production by launching missiles on its major oil facilities. Iran had already reinforced this fear by launching a drone attack on the State-owned Saudi’s Aramco oil processing facilities on September 14, 2019. The struggling economies of the world, including Pakistan, would have been collapsed due to their inability to absorb the shock of expensive oil. Also, the American people, while filling the gas in their vehicles, would have abused Trump for creating a new crisis for them.

The war would have not been confined to Iran and Iraq but pushed the entire Middle East into a wider military conflagration in many ways. First, Hezbollah of Lebanon would have demonstrated its affiliation with Iran and attacked Israel to push it into the conflict. Besides, it would have targeted American bases elsewhere in the Middle East through its proxies. Second, the Shia population of the Middle East would have shown its sympathy for Iran and created security problems in their respective countries by launching attacks on American embassies and consulates. Finally, Iran has already threatened to launch a missile attack on Israel and US military bases located in Dubai during any misadventure of the US creating an easy room for these countries to become a part of the conflict.

Even if the US had succeeded in defeating Iran and toppling its government, it would have been nearly impossible to eliminate its proxies operating in the entire region. Iran, through its proxies, would have continued to wrack mayhem against American interests for years to come giving birth to the fresh militancy in the region. This militancy would have been proved more disastrous for America than the threat posed by the Taliban and IS.

The armed conflict in Iran would have squandered the resources of the US. Trump, amid the economic threat posed by China, cannot afford to involve in a new crisis with Iran. The economy of China has grown from $1 trillion to a whopping $13 trillion since 2001 challenging the hegemony of the US. It is, therefore, America, keeping in view its wider national interest, will try its best to avoid armed conflict to save its resources and counter the growing influence of China.

It is also imperative to shed some light on the negative impacts of US-Iranian war for Pakistan. Islamabad would have faced three main challenges. Firstly, it would have been difficult for Pakistan to take a strong position against American aggression while maintaining neutrality with Saudi Arabia. The situation has further been exacerbated given Pakistan’s financial reliance on Riyadh. Secondly, more Shias live in Pakistan than any other Muslim country in the world except Iran. They would have created security problems by attacking American interests. Finally, Pakistan is facing a severe issue of trade deficit. Its economy does not have the potential to absorb the shock of a high oil price.

Thus, the US-Iranian war would revive some terrorist groups, collapse the global economy, burn the entire Middle East, surge militancy and add economic difficulties for the US. The war is, therefore, against the interest of all major countries and they must be united to neutralize the threat that could trigger a wider conflagration.

The writer is a columnist and researcher