Daily Times

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is an alliance of complexity. With a unique combination of states, the organisation is the largest in the world by means of geographic coverage, and hosting more than half of the global population. SCO is but a hard nut to crack. On the grey side, it has to undergo severe tests of the time to survive and spring up as the organisation of Asia.

Considering the multiplex nature of states being part of the SCO, the likes of India and Pakistan pose the greatest threat to its survival, viability and ceaselessness. It is the biggest threat within, let alone the sundry threats hanging without.

Both India and Pakistan occupy critically significant geo strategic and economic locations as regards being SCO members. The Russian inclination towards either side of India or Pakistan will be critical along with the Chinese interests in Pakistan, both strategic and economic. The Chinese Indian thaw cannot be ruled out as facing icy bilateral relations in introspection to Pakistan. The central Asian Republics are best connected through Pakistan and Iran whereas the permanent seat of Iran in SCO is yet to be decided. At the same time if Iran is made party to the SCO, the American suspicion and watch over the SCO will increase multifold whereas the American apprehensions of SCO are already well recorded and the hawk is continuously gazing it.

The most critical part of the SCO is the joint strategic and defense doctrine which is the mother of all worries. The type of relationships existing amongst the SCO countries is compromising in terms of defense perspectives

The most critical part of the SCO is the joint strategic and defense doctrine which is the mother of all worries. The type of relationships existing amongst the SCO countries is compromising in terms of defense perspectives. The lack of mutual trust and the element of positive deterrence are crucial factors affecting the SCO states. One wonders how the joint defense cooperation would work in circumstances where the defense relations are fragile and on the tenterhooks of suspicions and ‘first move’ doctrine. It would be imperative to observe that if the joint defense alliance factor is subtracted from the concept of SCO, it would cease to be an economic organisation, one destined to fade away in the dusts of time.

Amid all these apprehensions, what comes out an opportunity out of SCO is that it provides a forum where giant powers of Asia and the world would be resolving inter-state issues amicably. For that reason, SCO could be more effective if it is tinted with realism and sincerity as it would bring the two most antagonistic nations of Asia, Pakistan and India, together and enable them discus and resolve their issues through talks. The assurances guaranteed by countries like China and Russia will have a significant effect on the region. In fact if truly galvanised, the SCO could be seen as a promising forum to resume Pak-India relations.

The majority of SCO states face the common issues of poverty, living standard, black economy, terrorism and illiteracy. These issues could be alleviated through the robust relations amongst the member states. It has to be also seen that the middle class is booming in all these member countries and middle class means the availability of skilled human resource. The countries facing brain drain could be helped if SCO member states tie up strong mutual economic relations in an emboldened manner.

Of all these odds facing the SCO in its state of evolution, ultimate survival would depend heavily on how the big powers show leadership. Europe is an example before the SCO where the nations raised each other out of the ashes of the Second World War. In SCO’s case, the issue is not that sensitive even and little efforts could bolster the relations amongst the member states and could evolve the SCO in becoming an instrumental organisation in the Asiatic politics. The element of strategic joint defense will also keep the bullies at bay from creating new wars and crafting new war zones in Asia.

The writer is a Civil Servant based in Quetta