Daily Times

The current century has dawned with a gloomy picture for the present and future generations of South Asia. The region is faced with water scarcity, with a possible water conflict in the future. Challenges in the water sector largely relate to disputes and difficulties; arising from unequal flow distribution of trans-boundary rivers, as well as engineering interventions like dams, barrages and storages, with complete disregard for the agreements signed bilaterally between various South Asian states.

The principal South Asian trans-boundary rivers are, in fact, a lifeline for over 1.721 billion people, i.e. about one-quarter of humankind. These rivers flow from the shared Himalayan basins in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal, which constitute the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) and the Indus; two of the world’s largest river systems.

It is, indeed, unfortunate that the region, known as the “ancient cradle of the principles of ecological harmony” and sophisticated water management system (as evident through its civilisations), now faces dire ecological imbalance and a grim water outlook. The region only holds about 6.8 per cent of the world’s annual renewable water resources. The paucity of water is a big challenge for the South Asian riparian countries during the dry season, especially for the downstream ones, whereas South Asia’s per capita water availability has dropped by 70 per cent since 1950.

The issue of sharing waters between co-riparian countries is of great importance in South Asia. Cooperation or conflict between states can induce competition over resources. If the conflict becomes violent, it creates hindrances between smooth inter-state relations. Moreover, the harmful effects of water disputes are likely to shrink economic development. Such disputes are to gradually damage the social fabric of the affected countries that may evoke violence when the security and welfare of the masses are endangered by interruptions in the ecosystem.

According to Michael Kugelman, the water scarcity issue may likely be the main source of potential conflict in the subcontinent in the future. While the essential nature of the water dispute will remain political, it is likely to turn into a possible war.

Much of the popular discourse on water security swings between two arguments. One believes that conflicts regarding water issues arise from water scarcity and the other claims that there is no historical example of “water wars.” However, both stances are equally debatable and critical. Even today, the geopolitics of oil is at the helm of world politics. Juxtaposed to it, water is also becoming a more important and influential resource. Traditionally, the term “security” has been used to imply conflict, but it has a much broader meaning when water is discussed. The linkage between water and security needs no explanation.

Water is a shared natural reserve, the course of which is not confined to politically demarcated boundaries

One of the definitions of water security describes it as: “sustainable access, on a watershed basis, to adequate quantities of water of acceptable quality, to ensure human and ecosystem health.” Another definition of water security is: “a multi-dimensional concept that recognises that sufficient good quality water is needed for social, economic and cultural uses while, at the same time, adequate water is required to sustain and enhance important ecosystem functions.”

Water has gained more importance as a critical resource. This significance lies in the fact that it is a shared natural reserve, the course of which is not confined to politically demarcated boundaries. Ecosystems surpass political topographies and water is the universally acknowledged essential means of sustenance in all biological systems. All irrational schemes to restrict water to man-made political boundaries without caring for the international rules and practices (Equitable Utilization & No-harm Rule) would cast severe repercussions on natural river courses.

Water is a natural resource being used as a tool to achieve political goals and gain power. When regional water issues are combined with other political motives, they become complicated and hard to resolve. Escalating competition over water resources poses security dilemmas. Water is not only of strategic interest to nations who have been seeking to strengthen their national security, but they are a threat to security itself. The Israeli attacks against Syria are also examples of armed conflict over sharing of water.

The linkage between the environment and security has raised global awareness of the significant power that resource ownership and control hold. This, in turn, threatens to unleash conflicts over resources as nations rush to independently secure what they believe to have claims over. Analysts argue scarcity of water could be potential for conflict in future including the Middle East, the subcontinent and the former Soviet Union.

The aspiration for ownership leads to greed and protectionism and governments invest heavily in expanding military power to make their citizens feel more secure. The US National Intelligence Council highlighted Asian Water Scarcity in its Global Trends 2025 report and observed: “With water becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East; cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to become more difficult within and between states.”

Furthermore, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report says, “If the present unsatisfactory trends continue, in one or two decades, Asian developing countries are likely to face a crisis on water quality management that is unprecedented in human history.”

The writer is a research officer at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute